What were the key takeaways from Tenaris’s earnings call?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Tenaris year over year?

What is the market's earnings forecast for Tenaris next quarter?

What guidance did Tenaris's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is Tenaris's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What is Tenaris's gross profit margin?

What does Tenaris do and what are its main business segments?

What factors drove the changes in Tenaris's revenue and profit?

- **Q3 EBITDA Beats Expectations**: $753 million (25% margin) driven by U.S. rig-direct sales and Argentina wind farm efficiency.
- **Argentina Recovery**: Midterm election victory unlocks $750M Tecpetrol bond issuance; 2026 Vaca Muerta LNG project to boost OCTG demand.
- **U.S. Tariff Impact**: $40M Q4 EBITDA drag from tariffs, offset by 90% domestic OCTG production.
- **Middle East Growth**: 2026 Saudi Jafurah and UAE ADNOC unconventional gas projects to add $1B+ in line pipe backlog.
- **Cash Return Focus**: 11% annualized cash return (dividends + buybacks) supported by $1.2B buyback program.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q3 2025 sales reached $3 billion, up 2% YoY but down 3% sequentially due to lower North Sea and Middle East shipments, offset by resilient U.S./Canada rig-direct sales.
- EBITDA was $753 million (25% margin), including a $34 million one-off gain from U.S. antidumping duty refunds. Adjusted EBITDA (excluding gain) was $719 million (24% margin).
- Free cash flow was $133 million, with $351 million in share buybacks reducing net cash to $3.5 billion. An interim dividend of $0.29/share ($0.58/ADR) was approved, up 7% YoY.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- U.S./Canada: 90% of OCTG produced domestically; record production at Bay City, Hickman, and Sault Ste. Marie mills. New British Columbia service yard supports Montney shale expansion.
- Argentina: Post-midterm election, Vaca Muerta shale activity resumes with 30% stock market rally and 400bps country risk reduction. New 95MW wind farm in Campana powers steel production, achieving 100% renewable energy.
- Offshore: Strong backlog for 2026 deliveries, including Sakarya Black Sea project and GranMorgu development in Suriname.
- Europe: Benefits from EU steel safeguard measures; boiler/heat exchanger pipe production at full capacity.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Tariffs: $150 million/quarter impact on U.S. steel imports, with $40 million incremental Q4 EBITDA drag from tariffs entering COGS.
- Working capital: $300 million increase in receivables due to delayed PEMEX payments, expected to normalize in Q4.
- Capital allocation: $1.2 billion buyback program (60% completed) and 11% annualized cash return (dividends + buybacks).

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Argentina Outlook**: Election victory supports Vaca Muerta LNG projects; 2026 rig count expected to rise. Frac fleet expansion to capitalize on shale gas demand.
- **U.S. Margins**: Q4 EBITDA ~$710 million (flat YoY), with $40 million tariff impact. Welded pipe mix (35% of sales) expected to revert to 25% in 2026 as pipeline projects wind down.
- **Middle East**: Saudi Jafurah unconventional gas development and UAE ADNOC 300-well/year program drive OCTG demand. 2026 line pipe backlog exceeds $1 billion.
- **Mexico**: PEMEX refinancing may enable 2026 drilling recovery; Trion project with Woodside adds deepwater expertise.
- **Inventory**: U.S. ERW inventories at 7 months (vs. 5x normal), expected to decline 20% by Q2 2026 as tariffs reduce imports.

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