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- **Resilient Performance**: $3 billion Q4 revenue, $2.9B annual EBITDA, and $2B free cash flow highlight operational strength despite tariffs.
- **Strategic Growth**: Offshore projects (Suriname, Sakarya) and Argentina fracking expansion drive 2026 EBITDA growth to $3.2-3.4B.
- **Shareholder Returns**: 7% dividend increase and $1.2B buyback program reinforce capital allocation discipline.
- **Geopolitical Opportunities**: Venezuela Chevron resumption and Middle East drilling activity provide near-term upside.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue and Profit Growth**: Q4 2025 revenue reached $3 billion, up 1% sequentially. Full-year EBITDA was $2.9 billion, with free cash flow of $2 billion distributed to shareholders.
- **U.S. Operations Resilience**: Despite 50% Section 232 tariffs, U.S. production efficiency maintained market share, supported by Rig Direct services and cost control.
- **International Expansion**: Key projects include Shell's Sparta 20K in the U.S. deepwater, TotalEnergies' Suriname development, and Saudi Arabia's large-diameter pipe production expansion.
- **Sustainability Initiatives**: 2 wind farms in Argentina now power 100% of electric steel operations, reducing carbon intensity.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Highlights**: Q4 GAAP net income $2 billion, full-year EBITDA $2.9 billion. Cash flow from operations $787 million, supporting $300 million interim dividend and $537 million share buybacks.
- **Dividend Policy**: Proposed 7% increase in annual dividend to $0.89 per share, reflecting strong cash generation and shareholder returns.
- **Balance Sheet**: Net cash position $3.3 billion, enabling flexibility for buybacks and growth investments.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Margin Outlook**: Q1 2026 margins expected stable vs. Q4 2025, with potential tariff relief in welded pipe segment. Offshore projects (e.g., Sakarya) to drive second-half growth.
- **Argentina Fracking Expansion**: Adding third frac fleet, targeting $50 million EBITDA in 2026 from Vaca Muerta activity.
- **Venezuela Recovery**: Resuming Chevron service, with potential to expand to $150 million+ in 2027 if other majors return.
- **Middle East Activity**: Strong demand in Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar, with ADNOC OCTG volumes at record levels.
- **Buyback Program**: $1.2 billion buyback approved through 2026, with $600 million tranche remaining. Board will assess continuation based on cash availability and market conditions.

Tenaris S.A. (TS) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q3 EBITDA Beats Expectations**: $753 million (25% margin) driven by U.S. rig-direct sales and Argentina wind farm efficiency.
- **Argentina Recovery**: Midterm election victory unlocks $750M Tecpetrol bond issuance; 2026 Vaca Muerta LNG project to boost OCTG demand.
- **U.S. Tariff Impact**: $40M Q4 EBITDA drag from tariffs, offset by 90% domestic OCTG production.
- **Middle East Growth**: 2026 Saudi Jafurah and UAE ADNOC unconventional gas projects to add $1B+ in line pipe backlog.
- **Cash Return Focus**: 11% annualized cash return (dividends + buybacks) supported by $1.2B buyback program.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q3 2025 sales reached $3 billion, up 2% YoY but down 3% sequentially due to lower North Sea and Middle East shipments, offset by resilient U.S./Canada rig-direct sales.
- EBITDA was $753 million (25% margin), including a $34 million one-off gain from U.S. antidumping duty refunds. Adjusted EBITDA (excluding gain) was $719 million (24% margin).
- Free cash flow was $133 million, with $351 million in share buybacks reducing net cash to $3.5 billion. An interim dividend of $0.29/share ($0.58/ADR) was approved, up 7% YoY.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- U.S./Canada: 90% of OCTG produced domestically; record production at Bay City, Hickman, and Sault Ste. Marie mills. New British Columbia service yard supports Montney shale expansion.
- Argentina: Post-midterm election, Vaca Muerta shale activity resumes with 30% stock market rally and 400bps country risk reduction. New 95MW wind farm in Campana powers steel production, achieving 100% renewable energy.
- Offshore: Strong backlog for 2026 deliveries, including Sakarya Black Sea project and GranMorgu development in Suriname.
- Europe: Benefits from EU steel safeguard measures; boiler/heat exchanger pipe production at full capacity.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Tariffs: $150 million/quarter impact on U.S. steel imports, with $40 million incremental Q4 EBITDA drag from tariffs entering COGS.
- Working capital: $300 million increase in receivables due to delayed PEMEX payments, expected to normalize in Q4.
- Capital allocation: $1.2 billion buyback program (60% completed) and 11% annualized cash return (dividends + buybacks).

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Argentina Outlook**: Election victory supports Vaca Muerta LNG projects; 2026 rig count expected to rise. Frac fleet expansion to capitalize on shale gas demand.
- **U.S. Margins**: Q4 EBITDA ~$710 million (flat YoY), with $40 million tariff impact. Welded pipe mix (35% of sales) expected to revert to 25% in 2026 as pipeline projects wind down.
- **Middle East**: Saudi Jafurah unconventional gas development and UAE ADNOC 300-well/year program drive OCTG demand. 2026 line pipe backlog exceeds $1 billion.
- **Mexico**: PEMEX refinancing may enable 2026 drilling recovery; Trion project with Woodside adds deepwater expertise.
- **Inventory**: U.S. ERW inventories at 7 months (vs. 5x normal), expected to decline 20% by Q2 2026 as tariffs reduce imports.

Tenaris S.A. (TS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 Results**: $3.1B sales, $733M EBITDA, 24% margin; free cash flow $538M.
- **Tariff Impact**: $140M/Q Q3+ cost headwind from 50% U.S. steel tariffs; 2026 price normalization expected.
- **Project Wins**: Suriname, Brazil, Nigeria awards; Vaca Muerta pipeline projects to boost 2026 volumes.
- **Q3 Outlook**: Sales -high single digits YoY; EBITDA margin ~20-25%.
- **Key Risks**: Tariff resolution timing, inventory drawdown pace, South America financing challenges.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q2 2025 sales: $3.1 billion (-7% YoY, +6% QoQ), driven by North American OCTG price increases and stable volumes.
- EBITDA: $733 million (+5% QoQ), margin ~24% (stable vs. prior quarter).
- Free cash flow: $538 million; net cash position: $3.7 billion after $837 million in shareholder distributions.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- Tariff impact: U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs raised to 50%, creating $140-150 million quarterly cost headwind. Negotiations with Mexico, Canada, and Argentina may mitigate部分影响.
- Project wins: Suriname offshore line pipe and casing/tubing awards; Brazil Buzios 11 pipeline; Nigeria Agbami OCDG.
- Vaca Muerta: Resilient activity despite rig count constraints; pipeline projects (Vaca Muerta Sur, Duplicar North) to boost 2026 volumes.
- Q3 outlook: Sales down ~high single digits YoY due to fracking downtime and lower line pipe shipments.
- Margins: Q3 EBITDA margin ~20-25% (slightly below Q2); Q4 uncertain due to tariff resolution and inventory drawdown.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Working capital: $250 million cash generation in H1; Q3 inventory build expected ahead of Q4 releases.
- Tariff mitigation: Local production ramp-up (Copper steel plant) and welded product substitution to reduce tariff exposure.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Tariff & Pricing**: 50% tariffs expected to drive U.S. domestic price increases; inventory overhang (~1 month of consumption) to normalize by Q4.
- **Mexico**: Pemex $12B financing to support rig count recovery; Q3 sales offset U.S. seasonality with Mexican activity.
- **South America**: Argentina rig count constrained by financing; devaluation improving project economics.
- **M&A**: No immediate opportunities; focus on organic growth and Shawcor integration.
- **2026 Outlook**: Offshore backlog growth (Suriname, Brazil); onshore pipelines (Vaca Muerta) to offset higher-margin line pipe decline.

Tenaris S.A. (TS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Resilient Q1 Results**: $2.9B sales (+3% QoQ), 6% EBITDA growth, $647M free cash flow, and $4B net cash.
- **North America Strength**: Canada OCTG record shipments, US Rig Direct expansion, and Argentina pipeline projects.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: $70M/Q tariffs offset by US price hikes; import surge may ease as activity slows.
- **Offshore Momentum**: Solid backlog for deepwater projects; 2026 FIDs expected for Shell/BP and Chevron.
- **Share Buybacks**: Board to renew buyback authorization; cash position to support M&A or returns.


**【Investor Relations Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 sales reached $2.9 billion, down 15% YoY but up 3% QoQ due to seasonal Canadian volumes and US onshore sales.
- EBITDA rose 6% YoY on a comparable basis, with margin improving to 24% due to higher volumes and cost absorption.
- Free cash flow of $647 million supported share buybacks, increasing net cash to $4 billion.

**【CEO Business Overview】**
- **Canada**: Record OCTG shipments under Rig Direct, driven by long-term agreements with shale operators.
- **US**: Expanded Rig Direct services, with strong deliveries and new fracking/coil tubing investments.
- **Argentina**: New pipeline project to add 550,000 b/d export capacity, with expansion of fracking services.
- **Offshore**: Solid backlog for high-spec OCTG, line pipe, and connectors, including Shell/BP deepwater projects.

**【CEO Market Outlook】**
- **North America**: Potential slowdown in shale drilling if oil prices stay below $60/bbl, but Rig Direct clients (Tier 1 operators) expected to maintain activity.
- **Mexico**: Pemex production at 1.6 million b/d, with government plans to stabilize Pemex but uncertain timing.
- **Global Macro**: Tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty may delay long-cycle projects, but offshore and NOC-backed projects remain resilient.

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
- **Tariffs Impact**: $70M/Q incremental steel tariffs offset by US pipe price increases; import surge in Q1 may moderate.
- **Cost Structure**: 9% QoQ labor cost decline; raw material inflation managed via differentiated products.
- **Share Buybacks**: Board to renew $10% buyback authorization at May meeting; no immediate change to cash deployment.
- **Offshore Growth**: 2026 FIDs expected for deepwater projects; Tenaris leads in high-pressure, high-temperature solutions.


Tenaris S.A. (TS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **2024 Financial Highlight**: EBITDA $3.1 billion, net income $2.1 billion, free cash flow $2.2 billion fully returned to shareholders.
- **US Market Strength**: 90% of US OCTG needs produced domestically; won major deepwater projects (Shell Sparta 20K, BP Kaskida 20K).
- **Argentina Recovery**: Vaca Muerta drilling ramping up; Tenaris added fracking capacity, booking record January activity.
- **Tariff Impact**: 25% Section 232 tariffs expected to boost US OCTG prices, with company well-positioned to benefit.
- **Mexico Risk**: Pemex rig count down 62% to 23, but long-term recovery possible if Mexico resets energy policy.
- **Saudi Expansion**: Won $250 million CCS pipeline project; gas drilling resilient in Middle East.


**【Investor Relations Officer Opening Remarks】**
- Q4 2024 sales: $2.8 billion (-17% YoY, -2% QoQ) due to lower volumes and prices, partially offset by favorable product mix.
- EBITDA: $726 million (+6% QoQ), with a 25.5% margin. Excluding one-off litigation reversal, EBITDA was $659 million (-4% QoQ) with a 23% margin.
- Cash flow from operations: $492 million. Net cash position: $3.6 billion (down from prior quarter due to dividend payments and buybacks).
- Proposed annual dividend: $0.83/share ($1.66/ADR), including interim dividend of $0.27/share ($0.54/ADR). Remaining dividend of $0.56/share ($1.12/ADR) to be paid in May.

**【CEO Annual Summary】**
- 2024 full-year results: EBITDA $3.1 billion, net income $2.1 billion, free cash flow $2.2 billion (all distributed via dividends and buybacks).
- North America: Strengthened service differentiation with shale operators, expanded Wedge Series 400 connections, and 24/7 digital well integrity solutions. Won Shell's Sparta 20K and BP's Kaskida 20K deepwater projects.
- Global expansion: Saudi Arabia CCS pipeline award ($250 million), ADNOC long-term agreement, and Shawcor integration for deepwater line pipe and coating.
- Operational investments: $182 million in capex for efficiency and decarbonization (e.g., Argentina furnace, US copper steelmaking modernization, Italy finishing line).
- Environmental progress: Resetting carbon emission targets to include expanded operations and inter-mill transportation.

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
1. **US Tariffs & Supply Chain**
- 25% Section 232 tariffs expected to increase US OCTG prices. Tenaris produces ~90% of US needs domestically, mitigating tariff impact. Steel imports may face tariffs, but company maintains flexibility with global suppliers.
- Korea quota removal unlikely; administration will monitor imports to protect domestic industry utilization.

2. **Mexico Market Challenges**
- Pemex rig count dropped from 65 to 23 due to financial constraints. Tenaris reduced credit exposure but expects long-term recovery if Mexico resets energy policy post-2025.

3. **Argentina Growth Prospects**
- Vaca Muerta drilling ramping up with pipeline investments (e.g., Vamos pipeline). Tenaris added fracking capacity and coil tubing services, booking record January activity.

4. **Saudi Arabia & Middle East**
- Gas drilling resilient (e.g., Saudi unconventional gas for power generation). Oil drilling cautious but UAE expanding capacity. Won $250 million CCS pipeline project for Aramco.

5. **Share Buybacks & M&A**
- Current buyback program nearing completion. New buyback size TBD by Board in April, balancing M&A opportunities (e.g., US capacity expansion) with dividend policy.

**【Risks & Challenges】**
- Argentina safety incident (2 fatalities) underscores need for enhanced safety protocols.
- US policy uncertainty (tariffs, trade) could disrupt market dynamics.
- Pemex financial instability limiting Mexico activity recovery.


Actual											-0.0595	0.0101	-0.0082	0.18	0.18	0.5	0.56	0.63	0.85	1.08	1.03	1.37	1.91	1.9	0.91	1.92	1.27	0.59	0.81	0.94	0.94	0.99	0.85	0.88
Forecast											0.2169	-0.0679	-0.1603	-0.0016	0.0636	0.171	0.3437	0.4229	0.6109	0.8224	1.0019	1.3828	1.6519	1.6167	1.215	1.0023	1.0446	0.9341	0.657	0.6859	0.7838	0.8738	0.7656	0.7975	0.9022
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-127.43%	+114.87%	+94.88%	+11350.00%	+183.02%	+192.40%	+62.93%	+48.97%	+39.14%	+31.32%	+2.80%	-0.93%	+15.62%	+17.52%	-25.10%	+91.56%	+21.58%	-36.84%	+23.29%	+37.05%	+19.93%	+13.30%	+11.02%	+10.34%	0.00%

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