What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Tenaris year over year?

What guidance did Tenaris's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is Tenaris's gross profit margin?

What is the market's earnings forecast for Tenaris next quarter?

Did Tenaris beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What were the key takeaways from Tenaris’s earnings call?

What were the key takeaways from Tenaris's earnings call?

What factors drove the changes in Tenaris's revenue and profit?

- **Q3 EBITDA Beats Expectations**: $753 million (25% margin) driven by U.S. rig-direct sales and Argentina wind farm efficiency.
- **Argentina Recovery**: Midterm election victory unlocks $750M Tecpetrol bond issuance; 2026 Vaca Muerta LNG project to boost OCTG demand.
- **U.S. Tariff Impact**: $40M Q4 EBITDA drag from tariffs, offset by 90% domestic OCTG production.
- **Middle East Growth**: 2026 Saudi Jafurah and UAE ADNOC unconventional gas projects to add $1B+ in line pipe backlog.
- **Cash Return Focus**: 11% annualized cash return (dividends + buybacks) supported by $1.2B buyback program.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q3 2025 sales reached $3 billion, up 2% YoY but down 3% sequentially due to lower North Sea and Middle East shipments, offset by resilient U.S./Canada rig-direct sales.
- EBITDA was $753 million (25% margin), including a $34 million one-off gain from U.S. antidumping duty refunds. Adjusted EBITDA (excluding gain) was $719 million (24% margin).
- Free cash flow was $133 million, with $351 million in share buybacks reducing net cash to $3.5 billion. An interim dividend of $0.29/share ($0.58/ADR) was approved, up 7% YoY.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- U.S./Canada: 90% of OCTG produced domestically; record production at Bay City, Hickman, and Sault Ste. Marie mills. New British Columbia service yard supports Montney shale expansion.
- Argentina: Post-midterm election, Vaca Muerta shale activity resumes with 30% stock market rally and 400bps country risk reduction. New 95MW wind farm in Campana powers steel production, achieving 100% renewable energy.
- Offshore: Strong backlog for 2026 deliveries, including Sakarya Black Sea project and GranMorgu development in Suriname.
- Europe: Benefits from EU steel safeguard measures; boiler/heat exchanger pipe production at full capacity.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Tariffs: $150 million/quarter impact on U.S. steel imports, with $40 million incremental Q4 EBITDA drag from tariffs entering COGS.
- Working capital: $300 million increase in receivables due to delayed PEMEX payments, expected to normalize in Q4.
- Capital allocation: $1.2 billion buyback program (60% completed) and 11% annualized cash return (dividends + buybacks).

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Argentina Outlook**: Election victory supports Vaca Muerta LNG projects; 2026 rig count expected to rise. Frac fleet expansion to capitalize on shale gas demand.
- **U.S. Margins**: Q4 EBITDA ~$710 million (flat YoY), with $40 million tariff impact. Welded pipe mix (35% of sales) expected to revert to 25% in 2026 as pipeline projects wind down.
- **Middle East**: Saudi Jafurah unconventional gas development and UAE ADNOC 300-well/year program drive OCTG demand. 2026 line pipe backlog exceeds $1 billion.
- **Mexico**: PEMEX refinancing may enable 2026 drilling recovery; Trion project with Woodside adds deepwater expertise.
- **Inventory**: U.S. ERW inventories at 7 months (vs. 5x normal), expected to decline 20% by Q2 2026 as tariffs reduce imports.

Tenaris S.A. (TS) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 Results**: $3.1B sales, $733M EBITDA, 24% margin; free cash flow $538M.
- **Tariff Impact**: $140M/Q Q3+ cost headwind from 50% U.S. steel tariffs; 2026 price normalization expected.
- **Project Wins**: Suriname, Brazil, Nigeria awards; Vaca Muerta pipeline projects to boost 2026 volumes.
- **Q3 Outlook**: Sales -high single digits YoY; EBITDA margin ~20-25%.
- **Key Risks**: Tariff resolution timing, inventory drawdown pace, South America financing challenges.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q2 2025 sales: $3.1 billion (-7% YoY, +6% QoQ), driven by North American OCTG price increases and stable volumes.
- EBITDA: $733 million (+5% QoQ), margin ~24% (stable vs. prior quarter).
- Free cash flow: $538 million; net cash position: $3.7 billion after $837 million in shareholder distributions.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- Tariff impact: U.S. Section 232 steel tariffs raised to 50%, creating $140-150 million quarterly cost headwind. Negotiations with Mexico, Canada, and Argentina may mitigate部分影响.
- Project wins: Suriname offshore line pipe and casing/tubing awards; Brazil Buzios 11 pipeline; Nigeria Agbami OCDG.
- Vaca Muerta: Resilient activity despite rig count constraints; pipeline projects (Vaca Muerta Sur, Duplicar North) to boost 2026 volumes.
- Q3 outlook: Sales down ~high single digits YoY due to fracking downtime and lower line pipe shipments.
- Margins: Q3 EBITDA margin ~20-25% (slightly below Q2); Q4 uncertain due to tariff resolution and inventory drawdown.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Working capital: $250 million cash generation in H1; Q3 inventory build expected ahead of Q4 releases.
- Tariff mitigation: Local production ramp-up (Copper steel plant) and welded product substitution to reduce tariff exposure.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Tariff & Pricing**: 50% tariffs expected to drive U.S. domestic price increases; inventory overhang (~1 month of consumption) to normalize by Q4.
- **Mexico**: Pemex $12B financing to support rig count recovery; Q3 sales offset U.S. seasonality with Mexican activity.
- **South America**: Argentina rig count constrained by financing; devaluation improving project economics.
- **M&A**: No immediate opportunities; focus on organic growth and Shawcor integration.
- **2026 Outlook**: Offshore backlog growth (Suriname, Brazil); onshore pipelines (Vaca Muerta) to offset higher-margin line pipe decline.

Tenaris S.A. (TS) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Resilient Q1 Results**: $2.9B sales (+3% QoQ), 6% EBITDA growth, $647M free cash flow, and $4B net cash.
- **North America Strength**: Canada OCTG record shipments, US Rig Direct expansion, and Argentina pipeline projects.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: $70M/Q tariffs offset by US price hikes; import surge may ease as activity slows.
- **Offshore Momentum**: Solid backlog for deepwater projects; 2026 FIDs expected for Shell/BP and Chevron.
- **Share Buybacks**: Board to renew buyback authorization; cash position to support M&A or returns.


**【Investor Relations Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 sales reached $2.9 billion, down 15% YoY but up 3% QoQ due to seasonal Canadian volumes and US onshore sales.
- EBITDA rose 6% YoY on a comparable basis, with margin improving to 24% due to higher volumes and cost absorption.
- Free cash flow of $647 million supported share buybacks, increasing net cash to $4 billion.

**【CEO Business Overview】**
- **Canada**: Record OCTG shipments under Rig Direct, driven by long-term agreements with shale operators.
- **US**: Expanded Rig Direct services, with strong deliveries and new fracking/coil tubing investments.
- **Argentina**: New pipeline project to add 550,000 b/d export capacity, with expansion of fracking services.
- **Offshore**: Solid backlog for high-spec OCTG, line pipe, and connectors, including Shell/BP deepwater projects.

**【CEO Market Outlook】**
- **North America**: Potential slowdown in shale drilling if oil prices stay below $60/bbl, but Rig Direct clients (Tier 1 operators) expected to maintain activity.
- **Mexico**: Pemex production at 1.6 million b/d, with government plans to stabilize Pemex but uncertain timing.
- **Global Macro**: Tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty may delay long-cycle projects, but offshore and NOC-backed projects remain resilient.

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
- **Tariffs Impact**: $70M/Q incremental steel tariffs offset by US pipe price increases; import surge in Q1 may moderate.
- **Cost Structure**: 9% QoQ labor cost decline; raw material inflation managed via differentiated products.
- **Share Buybacks**: Board to renew $10% buyback authorization at May meeting; no immediate change to cash deployment.
- **Offshore Growth**: 2026 FIDs expected for deepwater projects; Tenaris leads in high-pressure, high-temperature solutions.


Tenaris S.A. (TS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **2024 Financial Highlight**: EBITDA $3.1 billion, net income $2.1 billion, free cash flow $2.2 billion fully returned to shareholders.
- **US Market Strength**: 90% of US OCTG needs produced domestically; won major deepwater projects (Shell Sparta 20K, BP Kaskida 20K).
- **Argentina Recovery**: Vaca Muerta drilling ramping up; Tenaris added fracking capacity, booking record January activity.
- **Tariff Impact**: 25% Section 232 tariffs expected to boost US OCTG prices, with company well-positioned to benefit.
- **Mexico Risk**: Pemex rig count down 62% to 23, but long-term recovery possible if Mexico resets energy policy.
- **Saudi Expansion**: Won $250 million CCS pipeline project; gas drilling resilient in Middle East.


**【Investor Relations Officer Opening Remarks】**
- Q4 2024 sales: $2.8 billion (-17% YoY, -2% QoQ) due to lower volumes and prices, partially offset by favorable product mix.
- EBITDA: $726 million (+6% QoQ), with a 25.5% margin. Excluding one-off litigation reversal, EBITDA was $659 million (-4% QoQ) with a 23% margin.
- Cash flow from operations: $492 million. Net cash position: $3.6 billion (down from prior quarter due to dividend payments and buybacks).
- Proposed annual dividend: $0.83/share ($1.66/ADR), including interim dividend of $0.27/share ($0.54/ADR). Remaining dividend of $0.56/share ($1.12/ADR) to be paid in May.

**【CEO Annual Summary】**
- 2024 full-year results: EBITDA $3.1 billion, net income $2.1 billion, free cash flow $2.2 billion (all distributed via dividends and buybacks).
- North America: Strengthened service differentiation with shale operators, expanded Wedge Series 400 connections, and 24/7 digital well integrity solutions. Won Shell's Sparta 20K and BP's Kaskida 20K deepwater projects.
- Global expansion: Saudi Arabia CCS pipeline award ($250 million), ADNOC long-term agreement, and Shawcor integration for deepwater line pipe and coating.
- Operational investments: $182 million in capex for efficiency and decarbonization (e.g., Argentina furnace, US copper steelmaking modernization, Italy finishing line).
- Environmental progress: Resetting carbon emission targets to include expanded operations and inter-mill transportation.

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
1. **US Tariffs & Supply Chain**
- 25% Section 232 tariffs expected to increase US OCTG prices. Tenaris produces ~90% of US needs domestically, mitigating tariff impact. Steel imports may face tariffs, but company maintains flexibility with global suppliers.
- Korea quota removal unlikely; administration will monitor imports to protect domestic industry utilization.

2. **Mexico Market Challenges**
- Pemex rig count dropped from 65 to 23 due to financial constraints. Tenaris reduced credit exposure but expects long-term recovery if Mexico resets energy policy post-2025.

3. **Argentina Growth Prospects**
- Vaca Muerta drilling ramping up with pipeline investments (e.g., Vamos pipeline). Tenaris added fracking capacity and coil tubing services, booking record January activity.

4. **Saudi Arabia & Middle East**
- Gas drilling resilient (e.g., Saudi unconventional gas for power generation). Oil drilling cautious but UAE expanding capacity. Won $250 million CCS pipeline project for Aramco.

5. **Share Buybacks & M&A**
- Current buyback program nearing completion. New buyback size TBD by Board in April, balancing M&A opportunities (e.g., US capacity expansion) with dividend policy.

**【Risks & Challenges】**
- Argentina safety incident (2 fatalities) underscores need for enhanced safety protocols.
- US policy uncertainty (tariffs, trade) could disrupt market dynamics.
- Pemex financial instability limiting Mexico activity recovery.


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