What is the market's earnings forecast for ORIX next quarter?

What guidance did ORIX's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is ORIX's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What is ORIX's gross profit margin?

Did ORIX beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What does ORIX do and what are its main business segments?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for ORIX year over year?

What factors drove the changes in ORIX's revenue and profit?

- **Record Profit Growth**: Net income up 48% to JPY 271.1 billion, ROE 12.7% (annualized), with JPY 440 billion full year target.
- **Strategic Fund Launch**: USD 2.5 billion PE fund with QIA to target large-scale Japanese investments, expanding AUM to JPY 100 trillion.
- **Buyback Expansion**: Share buyback program doubled to JPY 150 billion, with JPY 78 billion executed.
- **Portfolio Optimization**: JPY 178.9 billion from Greenko sale; AUM at JPY 88 trillion, 90% capital utilization rate.
- **Risks & Challenges**: ORIX USA credit losses, insurance segment discount rate impact, and volatile profit from asset sales.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Earnings Forecast Revision**: Net profit target raised to JPY 440 billion (from JPY 380 billion), with a share buyback expansion to JPY 150 billion.
- **PE Fund with QIA**: USD 2.5 billion fund (ORIX 60%, QIA 40%) targeting large-scale Japanese investments, including privatizations and EV projects.
- **Hilco Global Acquisition**: US-based asset evaluation and ABL platform to expand fee-based, countercyclical business.
- **Osaka IR Project**: Cost increased to JPY 1.51 trillion (from JPY 1.27 trillion), but profitability remains stable; synergies with Kansai operations.
- **Portfolio Optimization**: Sold Greenko Energy (JPY 178.9 billion cash inflow), ORIX Asset Management, and Nissay Lease; AUM at JPY 88 trillion (vs. JPY 100 trillion target).

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **First Half Results**: Net income JPY 271.1 billion (+48% YoY), ROE 12.7% (annualized). Full year ROE forecast 10.3%.
- **Capital Recycling**: JPY 157.1 billion gains from asset sales (e.g., Greenko, Hotel Universal Port VITA); JPY 470 billion new investments in Hilco, AM Green, and Osaka IR.
- **Shareholder Returns**: DPS raised to JPY 153.67 (from JPY 132.13), buyback program expanded to JPY 150 billion (78% executed as of October).
- **Balance Sheet**: Total assets JPY 10.7 trillion (+7% YoY), D/E ratio 1.5x; competitive funding costs via diversified currencies.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **PE Fund Strategy**: Leverage third-party capital for large deals, maintaining JPY 1 trillion balance sheet; fund accounting to reduce ROE dilution.
- **ROE Challenges**: Insurance segment discount rate impact (JPY 223 billion liability reduction), but stable interest rates expected to ease pressure.
- **ORIX USA Risks**: Legacy asset impairments in real estate; cautious outlook due to US macro uncertainty.
- **Environment Segment**: JPY 117 billion profit driven by Greenko sale; core business near breakeven, no major impairments.
- **2026 Outlook**: Base profit growth needed for 11% ROE; volatile gains from sales (e.g., Greenko) will supplement recurring income.

ORIX Corporation (IX) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q1 Profit**: JPY 107.3 billion net income (24% YoY), with 28.2% of full-year target achieved.
- **Capital Recycling Success**: JPY 93.4 billion gain from Greenko sale and JPY 331 million investment in AM Green.
- **Strong Segment Growth**: Investments (+61% YoY), Operations (+5% YoY), and Finance (+5% YoY) all outperform.
- **Shareholder Returns**: JPY 40.9 billion buyback completed; interim dividend policy maintained at 39% payout ratio.
- **Strategic Shifts**: Exit of U.S. real estate exposure, pivot to Hilco Global for countercyclical growth.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2026 net income: JPY 107.3 billion (24% YoY increase), annualized ROE of 10.4%. Full-year net income target under review due to macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Capital gains: JPY 45.1 billion from exits, including Hotel Universal Port Vida and ZeekLite. Q2 gains expected from Greenko sale (JPY 93.4 billion) and AM Green investment.
- Shareholder returns: JPY 40.9 billion of JPY 100 billion buyback program completed. Interim dividend policy set at 39% payout ratio.

**【Financial Performance Details】**
- Pretax profit: JPY 455.5 billion (8% YoY increase). Key contributors:
  - **Finance**: JPY 49 billion (5% YoY), driven by Corporate Financial Services and Australia/Singapore growth.
  - **Operations**: JPY 55.8 billion (5% YoY), boosted by energy sales and airport concessions.
  - **Investments**: JPY 61.1 billion (61% YoY), including Greenko sale gain and PE portfolio performance.
- ROE improvement: Finance (8.7%), Operations (14%), Investments (10.3%).
- Capital recycling: JPY 130 billion inflows vs. JPY 150 billion outflows. Major investments include LULUARQ, Hilco Global, and AM Green.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **U.S. Business Risks**: ORIX USA cautious on real estate due to high interest rates, but credit business stable. Hilco Global seen as countercyclical. Tariffs impact limited to specific PE investments.
- **Capital Gains Outlook**: Full-year gains expected to meet or exceed budget, with Greenko sale and AM Green investment driving Q2. Unrealized bond losses at ORIX Life manageable.
- **Shareholder Returns**: Buyback flexibility tied to market conditions. Dividend payout ratio maintained at 39% for interim results.
- **AUM Growth**: Asset management AUM up JPY 7 trillion YoY to JPY 81 trillion, driven by CLO issuance and equity market inflows.


ORIX Corporation (IX) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Profit Growth**: FY25 net income JPY 351.6 billion (+2% YoY), driven by finance and investments despite impairments.
- **2026 Ambitious Targets**: JPY 380 billion net income, JPY 132 DPS, and JPY 100 billion buybacks to boost ROE to 11% by FY28.
- **Sustainable Growth Strategy**: Focus on high-ROE investments in airports, aircraft, and domestic PE, with flexible capital recycling.
- **Risk-Managed Expansion**: Prioritizes countercyclical businesses like Hilco Global liquidation services and inflation-resistant assets.

**【Financial Highlights】**
- **Record Net Income**: FY25 ended with JPY 351.6 billion net income, up 2% YoY, despite JPY 53.1 billion impairments. Full-year ROE was 8.8%.
- **Segment Performance**: 
  - **Finance**: JPY 176.3 billion profit, driven by ORIX Life and US private credit.
  - **Operations**: JPY 200.2 billion, impacted by JPY 20 billion coal plant impairments but boosted by Kansai Airport and ROBECO.
  - **Investments**: JPY 168.2 billion gain, with domestic PE exits and Avolon contributions.
- **Capital Recycling**: JPY 140.7 billion cash inflow from asset sales, reinvested in aircraft and real estate.

**【2026 Fiscal Year Outlook】**
- **Net Income Target**: JPY 380 billion (up 8% YoY), with JPY 132 DPS (39% payout ratio) and JPY 100 billion share buybacks.
- **ROE Focus**: Aims to improve ROE to 11% by FY28 through disciplined portfolio management and capital recycling.
- **Growth Drivers**: 
  - **Operations**: Airport expansion, aircraft leasing recovery.
  - **Investments**: Domestic PE and real estate capital gains.
  - **Finance**: High-premium insurance products targeting affluent individuals.

**【Long-Term Vision】**
- **2035 Goals**: Target JPY 1 trillion net profit and 15% ROE, focusing on sustainable growth in alternative investments and operations.
- **Strategic Focus Areas**: 
  - **Pathways**: Tech-driven innovation.
  - **Growth**: Demographic trends in Asia.
  - **Impact**: Climate action and resource efficiency.
- **Risk Management**: Flexible capital allocation, prioritizing high-ROE investments and reducing low-efficiency assets.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Share Buybacks**: FY26 buybacks doubled to JPY 100 billion, flexible to optimize capital and EPS growth.
- **ROE Improvement**: Emphasizes base profit stability (70% of FY25 profit) and reducing low-ROE assets.
- **Greenko Sale**: Unsuccessful due to funding challenges, but FY26 outlook excludes such one-off gains.
- **Economic Risks**: Monitoring US recession impacts on corporate clients, but domestic PE and real estate remain resilient.

ORIX Corporation (IX) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q3 Growth**: 24% YoY net income growth to JPY271.8 billion (9% ROE annualized), with 70% of FY25 target achieved.
- **Investment Engine**: JPY129B segment profit (86% YoY) from strategic exits, including potential JPY96.5B Greenko gain.
- **Shareholder Returns**: JPY50B buyback completed; dividend policy unchanged at 39% payout ratio.
- **Risk Watch**: Greenko sale critical for FY25 target; 30% of net income target dependent on successful execution.
- **Long-Term Vision**: 11%+ ROE achievable via asset management, capital recycling, and cross-segment collaboration.

**【Management Overview】**
- Q3 FY25 net income: JPY88.8 billion (24% YoY growth, 70% of FY25 target of JPY390 billion). Full-year ROE target of 9% remains on track.
- **Finance Segment**: Stable at JPY137.1 billion (3% YoY decline), driven by life insurance investment gains.
- **Operations Segment**: Strong at JPY161.4 billion (2% YoY growth), boosted by airport concessions and Santoku shipping.
- **Investments Segment**: Surged 86% YoY to JPY129 billion, driven by exits in PE, real estate, and renewable energy.
- **Capital Recycling**: JPY95.5 billion in gains (Q1-Q3), including planned JPY96.5 billion gain from Greenko sale (subject to regulatory approval). New investment in AM Green (USD731M convertible bonds).
- **Share Buyback**: Completed JPY50 billion buyback program; will cancel excess treasury shares above 2% of outstanding shares.
- **Dividend Policy**: Full-year dividend to remain at higher of prior year DPS or 39% of net income.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Greenko Sale Risk**: 70% confidence in completing sale by end of FY25; failure would impact FY25 net income target. Potential offset from other capital gains, but full execution uncertain.
- **Midterm Plan Update**: Board discussing 11%+ ROE target, focusing on asset management and capital recycling. New COO prioritizing cross-segment collaboration and purpose-driven growth.
- **ORIX USA Recovery**: Credit businesses face headwinds from high rates, but CLO origination improving. Expect gradual recovery in FY26+.
- **Toshiba Investment**: Profit timing uncertain due to LP structure and EPA portfolio changes; long-term outlook positive.
- **ROE Execution**: Emphasis on base profit growth (not just capital gains) and disciplined capital allocation to achieve 11%+ ROE by FY26.


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