B vs. KGC: Which Gold Mining Stock Is the Better Bet Now?

In the volatile world of gold mining, investors face a critical question: Should they bet on Barrick Gold (B), the industry's largest producer, or Kinross Gold (KGC), a mid-tier player with explosive recent growth? The answer lies in dissecting their valuation, earnings trajectories, and shareholder return strategies.

Valuation: The Price of Opportunity

Barrick Gold's valuation metrics suggest a disciplined, conservative approach. As of August 2025, its P/E ratio of 15.59 and EV/EBITDA of 6.32 place it well below the industry median of 10.48, signaling a discount relative to peers. Its P/B ratio of 1.45 further underscores its affordability, trading at a modest premium to book value. In contrast, Kinross Gold's P/E of 25.17 and EV/EBITDA of 6.99 reflect a higher multiple, despite a recent drop from historical averages of 43.82 (5-year) and 48.88 (10-year). While KGC's P/B of 3.10 suggests a premium on assets, its elevated P/E implies market optimism about future earnings growth.

Earnings Growth: A Tale of Two Turnarounds

Barrick's earnings have languished for five years, with a -15.2% annual decline, but its 2025 rebound—82.8% growth—signals a potential reset. This outperformed the industry's -13.6% decline, driven by cost discipline and higher gold prices. Kinross, meanwhile, has averaged a -1.9% annual decline over five years but surged 210.3% in 2024, fueled by record free cash flow ($646.6M in Q2 2025) and operational efficiency. While Barrick's recent growth is impressive, Kinross's explosive recovery—now trading at a P/E 60% higher than its 12-month average—hints at a more aggressive re-rating.

Shareholder Returns: Dividends vs. Buybacks

Barrick's Performance Dividend Policy has raised its payout to $0.15/share quarterly, yielding 1.71% as of August 2025. Coupled with a $411M share buyback program in 2025, this reflects a balanced approach to capital returns. Kinross, however, has prioritized buybacks, spending $225M in shares year-to-date and maintaining a $0.03/share dividend. Its $650M 2025 return target—$500M in buybacks—suggests a focus on share price appreciation over income generation.

Strategic Implications in a Volatile Market

Gold's price swings create divergent risks. Barrick's lower valuations and robust liquidity ($2.8B as of Q2 2025) make it a safer harbor during downturns. Its EV/EBITDA of 6.32 implies a buffer against margin compression. Kinross, with a P/E of 25.17, relies on continued margin expansion and gold price stability. Its $1.53B TTM earnings and $2.8B liquidity provide flexibility, but its higher valuation leaves less room for error.

The Verdict: Risk Tolerance and Time Horizon

For income-focused investors, Barrick's higher yield and stable dividend make it the better bet. Its conservative valuation and 39-year dividend streak offer downside protection. For growth-oriented investors, Kinross's explosive earnings growth and aggressive buybacks present a compelling case, albeit with higher volatility risk.

In a market where gold's price is as unpredictable as the weather, the choice between B and KGC hinges on one's appetite for risk. Barrick offers the fortress, while Kinross promises the upside. As always, diversification remains the investor's best ally.