The backtest results indicate that CAT achieved a 75% win rate across 3, 10, and 30-day periods after earnings missed expectations, with cumulative returns of 4.34%, 6.94%, and 11.47%, respectively. This suggests a strong positive price reaction to earnings misses over the medium term, contrary to typical expectations. The maximum return reached 9.83% by day 56, showing sustained upside potential. Investors might consider that CAT's stock often rebounds favorably after earnings disappointments, presenting opportunities for gains with a medium-term holding strategy post-earnings miss.

backtest_data

The backtest results show that earnings misses in the machinery industry have no meaningful impact on stock returns over a three-year span. Despite 164 occurrences analyzed, the maximum return observed was a modest 1.92%, occurring 20 days post-event. This lack of significant movement suggests that the machinery sector’s stock prices are relatively insensitive to earnings misses. Investors might consider that earnings misses in this industry alone do not present strong trading opportunities or signals for significant price changes.

Backtest CAT Earnings Missed Expectations

Find all upcoming company earnings reports scheduled for aug 05 2025. Get details on which companies are reporting and their expected results.

Calendar