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- **Strong Financial Performance**: Q4 2025 EBITDA up 54.1% YoY to $191.1M, driven by cost reductions and record oil/gas royalties.
- **2026 Outlook**: Coal sales guidance 33.75-35.25M tons (93% contracted), with Illinois Basin pricing $50-52/ton and Appalachia $66-71/ton.
- **Operational Challenges**: Mettiki mine issues reduce Appalachia volumes by 1M tons in 2026; Q1 2026 volumes expected to be lowest due to longwall moves.
- **Market Trends**: Utilities shifting to long-term contracts amid natural gas price volatility; data center demand driving coal growth.

**【CFO Opening Remarks & Financial Review】**
- **Q4 2025 Financial Highlights**: Adjusted EBITDA of $191.1M (+54.1% YoY), net income of $82.7M ($0.64/unit), and free cash flow of $93.8M. Revenue declined 9.3% YoY to $535.5M due to lower coal sales, offset by record oil/gas royalty volumes.
- **Coal Operations**: Total coal sales volumes 8.1M tons (-6.3% QoQ), with Illinois Basin EBITDA expense per ton down 14.4% YoY. Appalachia volumes 1.7M tons (-19% YoY) due to Mettiki challenges.
- **2026 Guidance**: Coal sales 33.75-35.25M tons (+0.75-2.25M YoY), with 93% of volumes already contracted. Illinois Basin pricing $50-52/ton, Appalachia $66-71/ton. Capital expenditures $280-300M.

**【CEO Strategic Outlook】**
- **Market Strength**: Utilities prioritizing long-term contracts amid tightening supply-demand. 2026 coal demand driven by higher natural gas prices and data center load growth.
- **Operational Focus**: Illinois Basin leadership with Hamilton mine setting records. Appalachia focus on Tunnel Ridge, which generated 98% of region's 2025 cash flow. Oil/gas royalties at record levels with $14.4M in Q4 acquisitions.
- **Mettiki Impact**: Warn notices issued due to customer outages; 2026 guidance reflects 1M tons reduction. Evaluating potential impairment in Q1 2026.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Sales Cadence**: Q1 2026 volumes expected to be lowest due to longwall moves; Q4 2025 levels by Q4 2026. Export sales limited to MC Mining (200K tons) with netbacks ~$83-85/ton.
- **2027 Pricing**: 1.5M tons contracted at prices above 2026 high end; long-term contracts show 5%+ annual escalations.
- **Natural Gas Impact**: Arctic blast highlighted coal's reliability; PJM capacity market undersupply underscores coal's role in grid stability.
- **Equity Investments**: $17.5M gain from Gavin power plant; future equity investments to be lumpy but evaluated for similar returns.

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Common Units (ARLP) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Resilience**: Q3 2025 revenue decline offset by 4.4% sequential growth, driven by higher coal volumes and prices.
- **Cost Optimization**: Appalachia EBITDA expense per ton down 11.7% YoY; Tunnel Ridge costs reduced 19.3% Q/Q due to improved geology.
- **Contract Expansion**: 2026 contracted sales up 9% to 29.1M tons; 2025 distributable cash flow +17% Q/Q to $106.4M.
- **Strategic Growth**: $22.1M investment in coal-fired plant for 2026+ returns; 2026 volume growth potential of 2M tons.
- **Market Strength**: U.S. utility coal demand up 15% YoY; data center-driven electricity growth of 4-6% annually.

**【CFO Financial Review】**
- **Revenue Performance**: Q3 2025 revenue of $571.4M (-7.0% YoY) driven by lower coal prices (-7.5%) and volumes, offset by higher sequential volumes (+4.4%).
- **Coal Sales**: Appalachia volumes up 21.8% Q/Q due to Tunnel Ridge's new longwall district; Illinois Basin volumes +10.8% YoY.
- **Cost Efficiency**: Appalachia EBITDA expense per ton down 11.7% YoY; Illinois Basin down 6.4% YoY, excluding a $4.4M contingent liability adjustment.
- **Royalty Segment**: Coal royalty revenues +54.5% YoY; oil/gas BOE volumes +4.1% YoY but lower pricing (-10.5%).
- **Liquidity & Cash Flow**: $541.8M total liquidity; free cash flow $151.4M, distributable cash flow $106.4M (17% Q/Q growth).

**【CEO Operational Update】**
- **Infrastructure Investments**: New longwall shields at Hamilton and River View mines; Tunnel Ridge's new district reduced costs by 19.3% Q/Q.
- **Market Demand**: U.S. utility coal consumption +15% YoY in key regions; data center demand driving 4-6% annual electricity growth.
- **Contract Growth**: 2025 contracted sales up to 32.8M tons (3M export); 2026 contracts +9% to 29.1M tons with higher pricing guidance.
- **Strategic Investment**: $22.1M in coal-fired plant partnership for 2026+ cash-on-cash returns.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Contract Terms**: 2-3 year fixed-price contracts with escalators; 2026 coal price guidance down 5% YoY due to expiring high-priced contracts.
- **Market Outlook**: DOE investments supporting coal plant longevity; 2026 volume growth potential of 2M tons from Illinois Basin and Appalachia.
- **Financial Discipline**: Sustaining capital spending to decline in 2026; focus on oil/gas royalty accretive growth opportunities.


Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Common Units (ARLP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Resilience**: Q2 2025 coal sales volumes up 6.8% YoY to 8.4M tons, driven by Illinois Basin (+15.2%) and Appalachia recovery. 
- **Cost Efficiency**: Segment EBITDA expense per ton down 9% YoY to $41.27, enabling 2025 guidance of $39-43/M ton. 
- **Strategic Shifts**: $0.60/QTR distribution cut frees $50M/year for high-ROI investments (e.g., 25% IRR Gavin plant). 
- **Export Recovery**: 2026 export volumes poised to double to 6M+ tons as seaborne pricing stabilizes. 
- **Regulatory Tailwind**: Federal policies (DOE reports, tax reforms) reinforce coal's role in grid reliability and data centers. 
- **Liquidity Strength**: $499M liquidity (including $58M Bitcoin) supports aggressive growth in Appalachia and Illinois Basin.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q2 2025 total revenue: $547.5M (down 7.8% YoY) due to lower coal prices and volumes, offset by higher Illinois Basin sales.
- Coal sales price per ton: $57.92 (11.3% YoY decline) from legacy contract roll-off.
- Coal sales volumes: 8.4M tons (6.8% YoY increase), driven by Illinois Basin (+15.2%) and Appalachia (+10.3% sequentially post-Tunnel Ridge move).
- Segment EBITDA expense per ton: $41.27 (9% YoY decline) from cost savings in Illinois Basin and Appalachia.
- Net income: $59.4M (down 41% YoY) due to higher depreciation and $25M impairment of preferred stock.
- Adjusted EBITDA: $161.9M (10.8% YoY decline), with free cash flow of $79M.
- 2025 guidance: 32.75-34M tons sold, Illinois Basin 25-25.75M tons, Appalachia 7.75-8.25M tons. 2026 priced at 80% of guidance midpoint.

**【CEO Market Outlook】**
- Domestic coal demand strong due to AI data centers, manufacturing, and supportive policy (e.g., $329/MW day PJM capacity price). 
- Tunnel Ridge Appalachia mine production improving post-longwall move, with 750K-1M tons potential recovery in 2026.
- Illinois Basin expansion projects (Henderson mine) to add 1M+ tons capacity.
- Export volumes expected to rise from 3M 2025 to 6M+ 2026 as seaborne pricing stabilizes.
- Oil & Gas Royalties: 2025 BOE volume guidance increased 5% to 1.65-1.75M barrels oil, 6.3-6.7M MCF gas, 825K-875K NGLs.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Distribution Cut**: $0.60/QTR ($2.40 annualized) to save $50M/year for growth (e.g., Gavin plant acquisition, 25% IRR). 
- **Gavin Plant Investment**: $25M in private equity fund to acquire PJM coal plant; FERC approved July 23, closing in August. 
- **Regulatory Impact**: DOE Resource Adequacy Report validates coal's role in grid reliability; 2025 tax bill restores 100% bonus depreciation for after-tax distribution benefit. 
- **Export Growth**: 3M 2025 exports vs. 6M 2024; new inquiries suggest 2026 volumes could double with improved netbacks. 
- **Minerals Strategy**: Royalty portfolio EBITDA of $100M+ annually reinvested in Permian/Delaware Basin. 
- **Balance Sheet**: Total debt $477M, net leverage 0.69x, liquidity $499M (including 542 Bitcoin valued at $58M).

Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. Common Units (ARLP) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q1 2025 financials**: Revenue down 17.1% YoY to $540.5M, driven by lower coal volumes and prices.
- **Policy tailwind**: Trump admin grid orders could add 23M tons/year demand via delayed coal plant retirements.
- **Cost control focus**: 2025 cost guidance of $35-38/ton (Illinois) and $53-60/ton (Appalachia), with H2 improvements.
- **2026 outlook**: Coal prices may decline 4-5%, requiring cost savings to maintain margins.
- **Key risks**: Trade policy uncertainty, steel/aluminum tariffs adding $11M in 2025 costs.

**【CFO Financial Summary】**
- Q1 2025 total revenue: $540.5M (down 17.1% YoY) due to lower coal volumes and prices.
- Coal sales price per ton: $60.29 (-6.9% YoY), with sequential improvement in Appalachia.
- Coal sales volumes: 7.8M tons (-10.4% YoY), driven by reduced exports and challenging mining conditions.
- Adjusted EBITDA expense per ton: $42.75 (+4.7% YoY) due to lower volumes in Appalachia.
- Net income: $74M (down 52.6% YoY) amid lower coal prices and digital asset valuation decline.
- Free cash flow: $52.7M; distributable cash flow: $84.1M, supporting $0.70/unit quarterly distribution.

**【CEO Market & Policy Outlook】**
- Domestic coal demand surged in Q1 2025 due to cold weather, higher gas prices, and declining inventories.
- 2025 coal sales guidance: 32.75-34.75M tons (96% contracted), with 17.7M tons secured in 2025-2028 solicitations.
- Policy impact: Trump admin's grid reliability orders may extend 23M tons/year of coal demand via delayed retirements.
- 2025 cost guidance: $35-38/ton (Illinois Basin), $53-60/ton (Appalachia), with H2 cost improvements expected.
- 2026 outlook: Average coal price may decline 4-5% YoY, requiring cost savings to maintain margins.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Trade policy risks**: Steel/aluminum tariffs added $11M in 2025 costs; long-term impacts on demand/pricing uncertain.
- **Appalachia cost trajectory**: Tunnel Ridge geology improvement in H2 2025; 2026 costs expected to stabilize below 2025 levels.
- **Capital allocation**: Maintaining balance sheet strength; exploring data center infrastructure investments (e.g., $25M power plant stake).

Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)-28 Apr 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **2025 Sales Growth**: Guided 32.25-34.25M tons (78% priced), up from 2024's 33.3M tons.
- **Cost Efficiency**: Appalachia EBITDA expense target $53-60/ton vs. 2024's $64.67/ton.
- **Policy Tailwind**: Trump admin support for coal plants and grid reliability driving long-term demand.
- **Digital Asset Impact**: Bitcoin mining contributed $22.4M to 2024 net income, with $45M fair value at year-end.
- **Market Recovery**: Cold winter reduced customer inventories, setting up 2025 for higher domestic sales.

**【CFO Financial Summary and 2025 Outlook】**
- **2024 Full Year Results**: Total revenue $2.4B, adjusted EBITDA $714M, net income $60.9M. Coal sales volumes 33.3M tons (-1.1% YoY) due to high customer inventories, mild weather, and low natural gas prices.
- **2024 Q4 Results**: Revenue $590.1M (-86% YoY), coal sales price $59.97/ton (-1% YoY). Appalachia volumes down 17.1% YoY due to mining challenges at Tunnel Ridge and Mettiki.
- **2025 Guidance**: 
  - Sales 32.25-34.25M tons (78% priced at midpoint)
  - Appalachia price $76-82/ton, Illinois Basin $50-53/ton
  - Segment EBITDA expense: Appalachia $53-60/ton, Illinois Basin $35-38/ton
  - Capital spend $285-320M (down from $420M in 2024)
  - Free cash flow $383.5M in 2024

**【CEO Market Commentary and Outlook】**
- **Market Trends**: Improved coal demand due to cold winter (natural gas prices up), reduced customer inventories, and long-term power demand growth.
- **Policy Support**: Trump administration focus on grid reliability, coal plant extensions, and regulatory rollbacks.
- **Operational Strength**: 2024 safety stats 34% better than 2023, digital assets ($45M at year-end) contributing $22.4M to net income.
- **2025 Cost Improvement**: Expect material cost reduction offsetting lower prices, with Q1 costs highest due to longwall moves.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Tariffs Impact**: Minimal direct impact on coal business; tariffs seen as negotiating tools.
- **Sales Target Confidence**: 2025 domestic sales expected higher than 2024 due to contract signings and reduced exports.
- **Cost Structure**: Appalachia costs to decline sequentially post-May 2025 longwall move at Tunnel Ridge.
- **Oil & Gas Acquisitions**: Focused on Permian Basin, balancing oil and gas exposure while maintaining underwriting standards.
- **Bitcoin Mining**: $5.9M investment in 2024Q4 to improve fleet efficiency by 30%, with fair value $45M at year-end.

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