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Glittering Heights: Gold & Silver's Historic 2025 Rally and the Path to 2026

U.S. stocks closed higher Monday, extending a late-December advance as easing volatility and seasonal trading dynamics helped underpin risk appetite even though it is a shortened trading week.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 227.79 points, or 0.47%, to finish at 48,362.7. The S&amp;P 500 added 43.99 points, or 0.64%, ending at 6,878.49, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 121.21 points, or 0.52%, to 23,428.8. Smaller-cap shares outperformed, with the Russell 2000 climbing 1.13% to 253.62.Market volatility continued to retreat. The CBOE Volatility Index, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” fell 5.70% to 14.06, hovering near the lower end of its recent range. A declining VIX typically signals reduced demand for portfolio protection and greater investor comfort with equity risk.What the Smart Money Is Shorting Right Now 👇<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_1cfc1f921766437817895.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/FzBMcAWoqrg&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Short Sellers_1cfc1f921766437817895.jpg&quot;}"></video>Commodity markets also reflected a constructive tone. Crude oil jumped 2.64% to $58.01 a barrel, while gold advanced 1.90% to $4,470.80, suggesting continued demand for both cyclical and defensive assets. In digital assets, Bitcoin was little changed, slipping 0.04% to $88,188.16 after a volatile intraday session.Beyond daily price moves, investors are increasingly focused on year-end market mechanics rather than new fundamental catalysts. Seasonal <a href="https://www.ainvest.com/news/tax-loss-selling-january-effect-setup-investors-watching-2512/" target='__blank'>tax loss selling</a> where investors sell losing positions to offset taxable gains,often exerts pressure on underperforming stocks in December. Once that selling subsides, prices can rebound in early January, a pattern commonly known as the January Effect. This dynamic is driven largely by flows and positioning rather than abrupt changes in underlying business fundamentals .The strength in the Russell 2000 underscored that theme, as small-cap and higher-beta shares, frequent targets of tax-loss selling, led Monday’s gains. With few major economic releases on the immediate calendar and liquidity thinning into year-end, modest shifts in sentiment and positioning can have an outsized impact on prices.As the calendar turns, traders will watch whether this late-December firmness carries into January or gives way to renewed volatility once normal trading volumes return.

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<video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_1c207f131766435911373.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_1c207f131766435911373.jpeg&quot;}"></video>One of the defining tailwinds for equities as 2025 winds down has been a revival in M&amp;A activity, and this morning’s cluster of deal announcements reinforces the idea that corporate confidence—and private capital—remains alive and well despite a noisy macro backdrop. While deal volume is likely to slow over the final few trading days of the year for practical reasons, the signal from recent transactions is already doing its work: valuations are being supported by proof that strategic buyers and sponsors are willing to write large checks at meaningful premiums.The most market-moving development today comes from Alphabet (GOOGL), whose involvement in energy infrastructure has helped ignite a sharp rally across alternative energy names. The solar space, in particular, is responding aggressively, with the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN) up more than 4% as investors extrapolate renewed capital flows into power generation tied directly to data center demand. Alphabet’s acquisition of <a href="https://blog.google/inside-google/infrastructure/energy-innovation-intersect/" target='__blank'>Intersect&#39;s</a> data center and generation pipeline underscores a critical theme for 2026 and beyond: AI-driven power demand is now an M&amp;A catalyst, not just a CapEx talking point. The deal accelerates the deployment of generation capacity, aligns power supply directly with Google’s data center footprint, and highlights how hyperscalers are increasingly willing to vertically integrate energy solutions to secure reliability and speed. The market is reading this as a validation moment for renewable developers and grid-adjacent assets, which explains the broad-based strength across solar, power infrastructure, and clean energy equities.Away from tech and energy, the most dramatic headline belongs to Cintas (CTAS) and UniFirst (UNF). Cintas has taken its $275-per-share <a href="https://www.cintas.com/newsroom/details/news/2025/12/22/cintas-proposes-to-acquire-unifirst-for--275.00-per-share-in-cash/" target='__blank'>all-cash bid public</a> , effectively escalating what now looks like a hostile campaign by exploiting UniFirst’s internal governance turmoil. The 64% premium is eye-catching, but the fact that UNF continues to trade well below the offer highlights lingering skepticism around regulatory approval and the Croatti family’s ironclad control via Class B shares. Strategically, the rationale is clear: combining CTAS and UNF would create unrivaled route density and operational efficiency in the uniform rental space. However, this is also precisely why the market is discounting the outcome—FTC scrutiny looms large, even with a hefty $350 million reverse termination fee meant to signal confidence. Regardless of the end result, the episode reinforces that strategic buyers are willing to be aggressive, even in politically sensitive consolidation plays.The industrial and aerospace complex also delivered meaningful M&amp;A signals. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) announced a $1.8 billion all-cash acquisition of Consolidated Aerospace Manufacturing from Stanley Black &amp; Decker (SWK), a deal that checks several investor-friendly boxes. The transaction comes with favorable tax treatment, an attractive implied EBITDA multiple near 13x after synergies, and immediate exposure to long-cycle aerospace demand. It’s a reminder that high-quality industrial assets continue to command premium valuations, especially those tied to aerospace, defense, and supply-chain resilience.Meanwhile, Honeywell (HON) isn’t doing M&amp;A per se, but it is actively reshaping itself in a way that supports valuation. By settling long-running Flexjet litigation with a one-time $470 million charge and reclassifying its Advanced Materials unit as discontinued operations following the SOLS spinoff, Honeywell is “clearing the decks.” The company reaffirmed strong Q4 organic growth and margins, and investors are increasingly focused on the planned 2026 aerospace spinoff as the real value-unlocking catalyst. In the context of today’s deal-heavy tape, HON’s moves fit neatly into the broader theme of portfolio simplification and strategic clarity, which often precedes transaction activity.Media and software round out the M&amp;A picture. Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) remains in play after Paramount Skydance amended its $30-per-share all-cash offer, significantly strengthening the financing backstop with an irrevocable personal guarantee from Larry Ellison. The raised regulatory termination fee and improved interim flexibility are designed to remove lingering objections and keep pressure on WBD’s board. Separately, Clearwater Analytics (CWAN) agreed to an $8.4 billion take-private deal led by Permira and Warburg Pincus, delivering a 47% premium and reinforcing that private equity remains highly selective—but very active—when it sees durable cash flows and defensible software franchises.The common thread across all of these announcements is confidence. Strategic buyers are leaning in, sponsors are still willing to deploy capital, and boards are increasingly open to transactions that unlock value or resolve complexity. Even if the calendar naturally quiets over the next few sessions, the message has already landed. M&amp;A is not just a year-end curiosity—it has become a structural tailwind for equity valuations, supporting multiples and sentiment as markets look ahead to 2026.

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Deal Fever Is Back: Big Tech, Private Equity, and Industrials Light the M&A Fuse Into Year-End

Alligators, Biscuits and Christmas GiftsWhile investors are thinking about rebalancing their portfolios, I recently attended an event where kids are rebalancing the impact of poverty in real life.As you drive 90 minutes west of New Orleans, you pass Morgan City, a small town of about 11,000 people. Located in the Acadiana region of Louisiana, the area was initially settled by French Canadian refugees and is considered Cajun Country. Morgan City is one of many small towns nestled between bayous, rivers, and sugar fields. Its economy has long been supported by shrimping and the petroleum industry. As oil companies have pulled out of the area, the local economy has steadily deflated.As the tax base declined, Morgan City became increasingly dependent on its largest charity, the H&amp;B Young Foundation, to help support essential services. The foundation provides annual funding to nine schools, a preschool, the police and fire departments, and other local charities. As poverty levels have risen, one of the foundation’s primary focuses has become the area’s youth. Approximately 20% of Louisiana’s population lives below the poverty level. The state’s child poverty rate, one of the highest in the nation, ranges between 24% and 27%.For several years, the Young Foundation supported a small 2,000-square-foot youth center. Last year, local schools and a regional social worker alerted the foundation to a growing need for expanded after-school services for impoverished children. At the beginning of 2025, the foundation converted an existing building on its property into a new 8,000-square-foot youth center. The facility now includes an industrial kitchen, laundry room, library, game room, covered sports arena, and a large outdoor play field.More about the Young Foundation 👇 <video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/CCHp4MnrM1I" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/H&B Foundation_48ecc95b1766431110431.jpg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/CCHp4MnrM1I&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/H&amp;B Foundation_48ecc95b1766431110431.jpg&quot;}"></video>Word spread quickly that the new youth center offered free food, fun activities, and adult support for homework. Children had a safe place to spend their afternoons—where they could eat, relax, and simply be kids. Within six months of opening, the center reached maximum capacity.Christmas has always been a special time at the center. In addition to a festive holiday party with plenty of food, each child receives a gift—up to $50 in value—that they select in the fall. This year, more than 200 children signed up. To accommodate everyone, the youth center hosted two separate Christmas parties.As the Young Foundation’s investment advisor, I was thrilled by the turnout and decided to attend one of the celebrations.<img data-json="{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;e470cfab-ab27-4f39-bd28-3623f76f8953&quot;,&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}],&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/5473c350-0528-422f-8833-5fee7127cfc8_Photo 1_bb5b03b01766431197263.jpeg&quot;}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/5473c350-0528-422f-8833-5fee7127cfc8_Photo 1_bb5b03b01766431197263.jpeg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />When I arrived, three buses of excited, noisy kids poured into the main area. They quickly lined up for a feast. Fried chicken and biscuits were the clear favorites, with many kids going back for seconds—and thirds.After dinner, the noise level soared again as a storyteller made several attempts to begin a Bayou favorite: A Cajun Night Before Christmas—the version where alligators replace the reindeer (“Ha, Gaston! Ha, Tiboy! Ha, Pierre an’ Alcee…”).The kids, of course, were far more focused on their presents than the story. But first, silly games determined which group would open gifts before the others.I was deeply humbled as I watched the winning teams open their carefully chosen presents. One girl received her very first doll. A young boy asked only for a $10 box of reeds for his saxophone. Some children had even requested gifts for their mothers. I couldn’t help but think: how often are we dissatisfied with what we receive? How often do we still want more?This year has been strong for the stock market and for investors. Yet only 62% of Americans own stock. The remaining 38% are struggling financially, many facing increasing difficulty paying for basic necessities like housing and food.While Christmas gifts may not be essential, food certainly is. Rising food prices have led to one in four households struggling to feed their children. In thirteen states, many of them in the South, more than 30% of households are food insecure.If you are among the 62% who have seen their investments grow and are not currently giving to a charity, please consider doing so this holiday season. Many adults and children have little or nothing to celebrate. Sharing our blessings helps restore balance, perspective, and purpose in our lives.More about <a href="https://www.portia-capital-management.com/" target='__blank'>Michelle Connell and Portia Capital Management</a> <img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Michelle Connell (1)_7531eb831766431298102.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Michelle Connell (1)_7531eb831766431298102.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" /><img data-json="{&quot;type&quot;:&quot;image&quot;,&quot;src&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor Disclaimer (1)_f7121c311766431411959.jpg&quot;,&quot;alt&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;children&quot;:[{&quot;text&quot;:&quot;&quot;}]}" src="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/Contributor Disclaimer (1)_f7121c311766431411959.jpg" contentEditable="false" style="display: block; margin: 0 auto; maxWidth: 100%" />

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What a Christmas Party in Louisiana Taught Me About Gratitude and Giving

<h3></h3><video src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk" poster="https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_59e2eb9a1766425933565.jpeg" data="{&quot;videoUrl&quot;:&quot;https://www.youtube.com/embed/KoLkSx_GABk&quot;,&quot;coverUrl&quot;:&quot;https://cdn.ainvest.com/articles/focusnews/coverimage/content/pictures/MarronePlus Image_59e2eb9a1766425933565.jpeg&quot;}"></video>As the calendar winds down, market behavior often becomes less about fundamentals and more about mechanics. One of the most persistent seasonal dynamics is <a href="https://www.allspringglobal.com/capabilities/direct-indexing-with-allspring/?utm_source=FMGADS&amp;utm_medium=SEM&amp;utm_campaign=Brand&amp;utm_content=DirectIndexing&amp;utm_term=NA&amp;ecid=a2b2c26d16e1&amp;gad_source=1" target='__blank'>tax-loss selling</a> , which can create artificial pressure on beaten-down stocks into late December—followed by a rebound that shows up in January. This phenomenon, commonly referred to as the <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/j/januaryeffect.asp" target='__blank'>January Effect</a> doesn’t guarantee gains, but it consistently shapes short-term price action, particularly in stocks that have already suffered steep declines.<h3>What Is the January Effect?</h3>The January Effect refers to the tendency for stocks—especially prior-year losers, small caps, and high-beta names—to outperform in January after a weak December. The logic is straightforward. Investors sell losing positions late in the year to harvest tax losses, reducing capital gains or offsetting income. Once the calendar flips, that forced selling pressure disappears, and even modest buying interest can lead to outsized rebounds.Importantly, this is not about a sudden improvement in fundamentals. It’s about flows, positioning, and psychology. Institutional investors often wait until the wash-sale window clears before re-establishing exposure, while retail investors reallocate capital with a clean slate. The result is a brief window where oversold stocks can snap back sharply—even if the longer-term outlook remains debated.<h3>Why December Losers Matter Most</h3>The best January Effect candidates tend to share a few traits:<ul><li>Large year-to-date losses (often 30% or more)</li><li>Sector-wide pressure rather than company-specific collapse</li><li>High institutional ownership, increasing mechanical selling</li><li>No near-term catalysts to stop December selling</li></ul>Many of the names on the current tax-loss list check all those boxes, making them vulnerable into year-end—but potentially interesting on the other side of January 1.<h3>High-Risk Tax-Loss Selling Names: The Pressure Points</h3>Healthcare and software dominate the top of the list. UnitedHealth, Align Technology, Baxter, and Moderna are all down roughly 35–40% on the year, driven by regulatory uncertainty, post-pandemic normalization, or growth deceleration. These stocks are not broken franchises, but they lack immediate catalysts, making them prime candidates for continued December selling.Large-cap tech and software names like Adobe and Salesforce also stand out. Both have seen valuation resets tied to shifting AI narratives and budget scrutiny, despite strong cash generation. These are classic examples of stocks sold not because the business is deteriorating rapidly, but because expectations were too high earlier in the cycle.Consumer and discretionary names—Nike, Target, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Home Depot—reflect broader macro pressure. Weak spending trends, margin compression, and cyclical uncertainty have pushed these stocks well below prior highs, making them natural tax-loss vehicles for investors who entered earlier in the cycle.<h3>Where the January Bounce Often Shows Up</h3>Once tax-loss selling ends, attention shifts to balance sheet strength and survivability, not perfection. That’s where the January rebound watchlist comes in.Salesforce and Adobe sit near the top of the list for good reason. Both generate substantial free cash flow, have already absorbed major multiple compression, and could benefit quickly from even modest sentiment improvement. PayPal fits a similar mold: deeply out of favor, but finally showing incremental progress on product and engagement.More distressed names like Charter and Norwegian Cruise Line tend to show high beta in January. These stocks don’t need great news—just the absence of forced selling—to move sharply higher. That makes them popular trading vehicles, even if longer-term conviction remains mixed.Cyclical compounders such as Copart, Pool Corp, and Deckers represent a different flavor of January Effect. These are fundamentally strong businesses that sold off due to macro or expectation resets rather than structural damage. Historically, these types of names often rebound early as long-term holders re-establish positions.Defensive laggards like Clorox, Hormel, and Brown-Forman also deserve mention. These stocks typically don’t lead bull markets, but after severe drawdowns, they can deliver quiet but meaningful January rebounds as income-oriented investors rotate back in.<h3>What the January Effect Is—and Isn’t</h3>It’s critical to separate tradable rebounds from long-term turnarounds. The January Effect is about timing and flows, not confirmation that a company’s problems are solved. Many January winners give back gains later in the year if fundamentals don’t follow.That said, the effect remains powerful precisely because it’s mechanical. When selling pressure disappears, price discovery resets—sometimes violently.<h3>The Bottom Line</h3>Tax-loss selling creates distortion, and January often corrects it. The stocks that feel the most pain in December—large losers, out-of-favor sectors, and catalyst-light names—are often the same ones that rebound first in January. For investors and traders alike, understanding this dynamic isn’t about predicting miracles. It’s about recognizing when price action is driven by tax calendars instead of business realities, and positioning accordingly once the calendar turns.

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