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Did Ermenegildo Zegna beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

- **Resilient Growth**: Q1 DTC momentum (+10% YoY) and strong performance in Tom Ford & Thom Browne offset Middle East challenges.
- **Margin Stability**: Zegna segment EBIT margin at 14.7% (excluding provisions), targeting stabilization in 2026 amid FX headwinds.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: ASICS collaboration success and cultural partnerships (Art Basel, Venice Biennale) drive new customer acquisition.
- **China Recovery**: Early signs of improvement, with cautious optimism for gradual 2026 recovery.
- **Risk Management**: €10M Saks Global provisions highlight supply chain risks, but free cash flow positive at €82M.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Middle East Resilience**: Despite regional conflict, Zegna's stores remain operational, with customers showing resilience. The brand's cultural initiatives, such as the Italian Pavilion at Venice Biennale, reinforce long-term regional importance.
- **Fashion Show Success**: Tom Ford's Spring/Summer '26 collection and Thom Browne's ASICS collaboration sneakers are driving strong commercial momentum, with the latter exceeding revenue expectations.
- **China Recovery**: Q1 shows sequential improvement, particularly in Hong Kong and Macau, though 2026 guidance remains cautious due to macroeconomic uncertainties.
- **Cultural Expansion**: Zegna's partnership with Art Basel and the launch of 'Memory' fragrances highlight its strategy to blend luxury with art and culture.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **FY25 Results**: Revenue €1.917B (-1.5% YoY), adjusted EBIT €163M (€173M excluding provisions), and profit €109M (+20% YoY). Zegna segment EBIT margin improved to 14.7% (excluding provisions), driven by DTC growth (82% of branded revenue).
- **Cost Management**: SG&A rose to 53.9% of revenue due to investments in talent and store expansion, but corporate costs decreased by 20%.
- **FX Impact**: 2026 expects 2% headwind from currency fluctuations, though recent USD/EUR and RMB stabilization may mitigate部分影响.
- **CapEx Outlook**: €103M in FY25, with FY26 targeting 7% of revenue for a new shoe factory and IT upgrades.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Regional Trends**: Americas and Europe resilient; China shows early signs of recovery post-Chinese New Year.
- **Margin Dynamics**: Zegna segment EBIT margin expected to stabilize at ~15%, with FX and wholesale contraction as key risks.
- **Tom Ford & Thom Browne**: Tom Ford H2 '25 turned profitable, driven by full-price sell-through; Thom Browne aims to return to double-digit EBIT margin with DTC focus.
- **Middle East Strategy**: Maintaining partnerships with local distributors (e.g., Chalhoub, Altair) to support stores and customer engagement despite geopolitical tensions.

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Beat Expectations**: Q3 organic growth of 4% driven by 9% DTC expansion, with Zegna brand up 6% and Tom Ford Fashion +16% DTC.
- **China Recovery Signs**: Top-tier spending resilient, but overall Greater China down 7%. U.S. DTC cluster grows double-digit.
- **FX Headwind**: 3-4% organic-to-reported drag in Q3, hedging in place but margin pressure persists. 2026 hedging partially mitigates risk.
- **Tom Ford Progress**: DTC momentum from new collections and openings, but wholesale decline (-10%) reflects strategic channel shift.
- **Zegna Margin Expansion**: 13-14% target for 2025 driven by price/mix and CRM efficiency.

**【CEO/Management Remarks】**
- **Q3 2025 Organic Revenue Growth**: €398 million, up 4% organically, driven by 9% DTC channel growth. Zegna brand revenue rose 6% to €249 million, Thom Browne improved sequentially, and Tom Ford Fashion grew 4%.
- **Geographic Performance**: Americas (+13%), EMEA stable, Greater China (-7%), APAC (+3%). U.S. DTC cluster grew double-digit,1, while China showed signs of stabilization in top-tier spending.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: Zegna's Torino collection and Dubai store reopening highlighted heritage and innovation. Tom Ford Fashion's Haider Ackermann collection and store openings in Miami and Dubai drove momentum.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Currency Impact**: Euro strength vs. USD/RMB caused 3-4% organic-to-reported drag in Q3, expected 4-5% in Q4. Hedging mitigated but not eliminated margin pressure.
- **Margin Management**: DTC gross margin expansion offset wholesale rationalization. Zegna segment margin expected 13-14% for 2025, driven by price/mix and CRM efficiency.
- **Tom Ford Integration**: DTC growth (+16%) from new collections, store openings, and CRM investments. Wholesale decline (-10%) due to selective conversions to DTC.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Q4 Outlook**: Early trends align with Q3, with DTC growth sustained by CRM and new collections. China's top-tier customers performing well, but volatility persists.
- **FX Hedging**: 2026 hedging in place, but currency volatility remains a risk. Price increases offset部分 tariff impacts.
- **Tom Ford Momentum**: DTC acceleration expected with new collections and store openings. Wholesale rationalization to continue selectively.


Ermenegildo Zegna NV (ZGN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **DTC Growth Drives Margin**: Gross margin +110bps to 67.5% due to 82% DTC share; Q2 EBIT expected higher than Q1.
- **Brand Performance**: Zegna strong, Thom Browne wholesale down 52%, Tom Ford investing for long-term.
- **China Risk**: GCR remains challenging, with cautious 2026 planning despite tentative stabilization.
- **Marketing Spend**: Group marketing at ~6% of sales; no consumer pushback from U.S. price increases.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- H1 2025 revenue: EUR 928 million (-2% organic), driven by +6% DTC organic growth.
- Gross profit margin improved 110bps to 67.5% due to higher DTC share (82% vs 76% in H1 2024).
- Adjusted EBIT: EUR 69 million (7.4% margin), down 100bps vs H1 2024, impacted by higher SG&A costs and currency headwinds.
- Q2 EBIT expected to be higher than Q1, with cautious outlook on China recovery.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- **Zegna**: Fall/Winter '25 campaign launched with Vellus Aureum fabric; Miami Design District store opened; DTC network expansion continues.
- **Thom Browne**: New CEO Sam Lobban appointed; Q2 wholesale down 52%, aiming for -20% decline in H2; EBIT contraction due to DTC expansion costs.
- **Tom Ford**: Haider Ackermann collection launched; investing in IT and talent teams for long-term growth.
- China GCR remains challenging, with tentative signs of stabilization but no solid trends.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Net profit: EUR 47.9 million (+53% YoY) due to FX gains and lower tax rate (30% vs 35% YoY).
- CapEx: EUR 54 million (6% of revenue), 2/3 for store openings; FY25 CapEx incidence expected 6-7%.
- Free cash flow: EUR 23 million (vs EUR 7 million YoY), driven by lower operating cash flow.
- China risk remains key concern, with cautious 2026 planning for 'new normal'.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Gross Margin**: H2 gross margin expected to remain above 67%, supported by DTC quality and full-price sell-through.
- **Zegna Segment**: 2025 EBIT margin expected 13-14%, with investments in Miami event and marketing.
- **Thom Browne**: Long-term EBIT target >10%, with focus on DTC and cost control.
- **China**: Q3 comps easier, but cautious on single-digit decline; no material impact from U.S. price increases.
- **Marketing Spend**: Group-level marketing at ~6% of sales for FY25.

Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Americas Dominance**: Q1 U.S. DTC growth (+double digits) drives overall momentum, offsetting Greater China (-12%) softness.
- **DTC Shift**: All brands prioritize DTC (86% Zegna, +3% Thom Browne, +9% Tom Ford), with wholesale declining 19% overall.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: Mid-single-digit price hikes for fall/winter '25 to offset 10% U.S. tariffs, with no manufacturing relocation.
- **China Stabilization**: Zegna shows early signs of recovery (positive AUR/conversion), but traffic remains challenging.
- **EBIT Guidance**: Low single-digit growth expected, supported by DTC focus and cost control.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 revenue: EUR 459 million (-1% YoY, organic basis). Americas (+9%) and APAC (Japan, Singapore) outperform, while Greater China (-12%) remains cautious.
- **Brand Performance**: 
  - Zegna: +3% driven by DTC in EMEA and U.S., with 86% of revenue from DTC. Key launch of Moccasin shoes saw strong global response.
  - Thom Browne: -9% due to wholesale reduction, but DTC +3% with new store openings (Palm Beach, Los Angeles).
  - Tom Ford: +3% from DTC momentum post-Haider Ackermann's fashion show, with new store in Puerto Banus.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Tariff Strategy**: 10% U.S. tariff hike countered by mid-single-digit price increases for fall/winter '25 collections. No manufacturing relocation; Italy-based production maintained.
- **EBIT Guidance**: Low single-digit growth for 2025, supported by DTC focus and cost control (e.g., selective wholesale reductions).
- **Wholesale Outlook**: Zegna and Tom Ford wholesale expected to decline 25-30% YoY, with Thom Browne wholesale down 48% Q1 but stabilizing through the year.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **U.S. Momentum**: Zegna DTC growth (+double digits) across regions (NY, Florida, California), offsetting Greater China softness. Moccasin shoes and summer drop drove Q1 success.
- **Haider Ackermann Impact**: Fall/winter '25 collection to launch in September, with early 'see now, buy now' results encouraging. Full design impact expected in Q3.
- **Greater China Strategy**: Prudent approach with initial signs of stabilization at Zegna (positive KPIs like AUR and conversion rates despite traffic decline).
- **Tariff Confidence**: Pricing adjustments balanced against volume risk, with luxury consumers less price-sensitive. No material demand impact seen post-tariff hike.


Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. (ZGN) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **2024 Performance**: €184 million adjusted EBIT, 67% gross margin, driven by DTC growth and brand investments. 
- **Brand Momentum**: Tom Ford show success, Thom Browne US expansion, Zegna Dubai launch. 
- **2025 Targets**: Low-single-digit revenue growth, €250-300 million EBITDA. 
- **China Challenges**: 2025 expected to remain negative, with gradual recovery in 2026+. 
- **DTC Expansion**: DTC share to 80% by end-2025, Zegna near 90%. 
- **Sustainability**: 50% managerial roles held by women, artisanal craftsmanship preservation. 
- **Tom Ford Vision**: Women's and accessories line expansion in 2026, DTC conversion acceleration.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2024 Financial Highlights**: Adjusted EBIT of €184 million, driven by Zegna brand organic growth. Tom Ford Fashion show in Paris received record media impact, with customer interest in the collection already emerging.
- **Brand Performance**: 
  - **Tom Ford**: Fall/Winter '25 collection saw double the media impact of previous shows; See Now Buy Now pieces sold out quickly. 
  - **Thom Browne**: New US stores opening in Palm Beach, LA, and NYC; February fashion show received strong customer feedback. 
  - **Zegna**: Vellus Aureum collection outperformed expectations, attracting new customers. Dubai launch in June will expand brand presence in high-growth markets.
- **Mid-Term Targets (2025-2027)**: 
  - 2025: Revenue growth of low-single digits, adjusted EBITDA of €250-300 million. 
  - 2027: Revenue of €2.2-2.4 billion, adjusted EBITDA of €250-300 million. 
  - China expected to remain challenging in 2025, with gradual recovery anticipated.
- **Sustainability & Culture**: 50% of managerial roles now held by women; Accademia dei Maestri launched to preserve artisanal craftsmanship.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **2024 Financials**: 
  - Total revenue: €1.947 billion (+2% YoY). 
  - Gross margin: 67% (up 230bps YoY). 
  - Adjusted EBIT: €184 million (-16% YoY). 
  - Net profit: €91 million. 
- **Key Drivers**: 
  - DTC channel now 78% of total revenue (vs. 73% in 2023). 
  - Cost of sales reduced by €11.6 million YoY due to Tom Ford PPA charges. 
  - SG&A expenses increased 51.8% of revenue (vs. 47.3% in 2023) due to brand investments and store openings. 
- **2025 Outlook**: 
  - CapEx of 6-7% of revenue for factory expansion and IT upgrades. 
  - Free cash flow expected to remain positive despite elevated CapEx.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Q1 2025 Trends**: 
  - US market resilient; Europe and Middle East performing well. 
  - China (esp. Hong Kong) remains challenging, with similar Q1 trends to Q4 2024. 
  - Thom Browne wholesale down 33% YoY, but DTC growth expected to offset. 
- **Zegna Margin Outlook**: 
  - 2024 adjusted EBIT margin of 13.9% expected to improve with DTC expansion. 
  - 2025 focus on CRM, marketing, and store investments for long-term growth. 
- **Tom Ford Integration**: 
  - Fall/Winter '25 collection saw wholesale orders up vs. previous season. 
  - Women's and accessories line expected to expand in 2026. 
- **Channel Mix**: 
  - DTC share target of 80% by end-2025 (Zegna near 90%). 
  - Thom Browne wholesale expected to decline 10-20% YoY in 2025. 
- **Supply Chain**: 
  - New Parma factory to be operational by H2 2026. 
  - Streamlined fabric cutting operations to reduce costs.


Actual														0.181
Forecast														0.2075
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-12.77%

Actual	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	1.16B
Forecast	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	1.16B
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-0.37%

ZGN

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ZGN Q4 2025 Earnings

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ZGN

ZGN fundamentals

ZGN Q4 2025 Earnings

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ZGN Earnings Call Summary for Q4/2025Invalid Date on Mar 20, 2026

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ZGN Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20258:00 AM on Apr 24, 2025

ZGN Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20248:00 AM on Mar 27, 2025

You can ask Aime