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- **Shale Dominance**: Shale oil production reached 190,000 bpd in October (+35% YoY), driving 70% of total output. Lifting costs halved to $9/BOE. 
- **Financial Resilience**: Pro forma FCF of -$172M (excluding M&A) despite $759M negative FCF. Refinanced $500M bond at record-low 8.25% yield. 
- **Growth Ambitions**: 2026 shale oil target 215,000 bpd; 2027 target 290,000 bpd. LNG project to cost $20B-$25B with 70% non-recourse financing. 
- **Strategic Shifts**: Exiting conventional fields by end-2025 to become pure shale player. Metrogas and YPF Agro divestments underway. 
- **Operational Excellence**: Record 326,000 bpd refining capacity (2009 high). Autonomous drilling/fracking set new industry benchmarks.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 2025 revenue: $4.6 billion (-12% YoY) due to 13% Brent price decline. Adjusted EBITDA: $1.4 billion (flat YoY, +20% QoQ). Shale oil production reached 190,000 bpd in October (+35% YoY, +12% QoQ), exceeding 2025 target of 165,000 bpd. Lifting costs reduced 45% YoY to $9/BOE. Vaca Muerta shale production mix increased to 70% of total output. Negative free cash flow ($759M) due to $523M asset acquisition and mature field exit costs. Net debt: $9.6B (2.1x leverage). Refinanced $500M bond at 8.25% yield, lowest in years.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 2025: Negative free cash flow ($759M) driven by one-off costs. Pro forma FCF: -$172M (excluding M&A). Net debt: $9.6B (2.1x leverage). Issued $625M in local bonds at 7.65% avg yield. Repaid $120M secured notes early. Secured $700M cross-border loan for 2026 maturities. LNG project CapEx: $20B-$25B, 70% non-recourse financing. 2031 bond reopening at 8.75% yield, oversubscribed 3x.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Production Growth**: 2026 target 215,000 bpd; 2027 target 290,000 bpd. Shale-only strategy by end-2025. 
- **M&A Strategy**: Active in 2025 (Total Astral acquisition), but 2026 focus on developing existing assets. 
- **Divestments**: Metrogas to be sold post-concession renewal. YPF Agro to seek strategic partner for 50% stake. 
- **LNG Project**: Phase 3 FID with Eni (12MTPA), new partner ADNOC. 2030 first LNG export. 
- **Working Capital**: Q3 negative $360M due to gas sales accruals, longer collection days, inventory restocking. Normalizing in Q4. 
- **Leverage**: Target <2.0x. No oil price hedging plans. 
- **Refining**: La Plata refinery named Refinery of the Year, 97% utilization. Exported 30,000 m³ refined products to Uruguay in Q3.

YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Shale Growth Acceleration**: Q2 shale oil production at 165,000 b/d, targeting 190,000 b/d by year-end. Acquired Shell's 115,000-acre Vaca Muerta assets for $500M, adding 500+ wells.
- **Operational Efficiency**: RTICs reduce maintenance by 40-60%, nighttime fuel sales up 30%. Lifting costs exclude mature fields at $7.5/bbl.
- **Financial Resilience**: Adjusted EBITDA $1.12B, net profit $58M. Net debt $8.8B (1.9x leverage), with $800M refinancing planned for H2.
- **LNG Expansion**: MK II vessel (3.5M t/y) approved, total LNG capacity to reach 6M t/y. Secured dedicated gas pipeline for year-round exports.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **4x4 Plan Progress**: Achieved key milestones, including 24% reduction in lifting costs and financial closing of VMOS pipeline. Shale oil production reached 165,000 barrels/day in July, targeting 190,000 barrels/day by year-end.
- **Strategic Acquisitions**: Acquired Shell's 115,000-acre Vaca Muerta assets for $500 million, adding 500+ wells and enhancing long-term growth. Plans to divest 16 conventional blocks to become a pure shale player.
- **Operational Efficiency**: Introduced real-time intelligence centers (RTICs) for upstream and downstream operations, reducing maintenance duration by 40-60% and boosting nighttime fuel sales by 30%.
- **Argentina LNG Project**: Secured FID for second floating LNG vessel (MK II) with 3.5 million tons/year capacity, expected operational in 2028. Total LNG capacity to reach 6 million tons/year.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q2 Financials**: Adjusted EBITDA of $1.12 billion (-10% sequentially), net profit of $58 million (vs. $10M loss in Q1). Free cash flow negative at $355 million due to mature field divestments and working capital.
- **Capital Allocation**: 71% of Q2 capex ($1.16 billion) allocated to unconventional assets. VMOS equity contributions of $230 million, with $76 million disbursed to date.
- **Debt Management**: Net debt rose to $8.8 billion (1.9x leverage). Issued $204M linked bond and $140M hard dollar bond, targeting $800M refinancing in H2.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Shell Asset Acquisition**: New block's type wells are 50% more productive than Vaca Muerta average, with plans to prioritize development with Shell. Total CapEx for full field development could exceed $7.5 billion.
- **CapEx Guidance**: Maintains $5.0-5.2 billion 2025 capex target despite Brent volatility. VMOS equity contributions will peak in 2026.
- **Divestment Proceeds**: Refused to disclose expected proceeds from conventional asset sales but emphasized they will exceed acquisition costs.
- **LNG Pipeline Expansion**: Secured dedicated gas pipeline from Vaca Muerta to San Matías Gulf, enabling year-round LNG exports.
- **Export Tariffs**: No updates on oil export tariff reductions; management deferred to government policy.


YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Adjusted EBITDA surge**: 48% QoQ growth to $1.24 billion, driven by shale oil expansion and mature field cost savings.
- **Shale dominance**: 31% YoY shale oil production growth to 147,000 bbl/day, 55% of total oil output.
- **LNG pipeline**: 30 MTPA Argentina LNG capacity target on track with SESA's Hilli (2027) and MKII (2028) vessels.
- **Financial discipline**: Net leverage to drop to 1.5-1.6x by year-end post-mature field divestments, despite Q1 $957M free cash flow deficit.
- **Price resilience**: $60/bbl Brent break-even, $2B annual CapEx to sustain production amid shale decline rates.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached $1.24 billion, up 48% sequentially, driven by higher fuel prices and OpEx savings from mature field divestments.
- Shale oil production grew 31% YoY to 147,000 bbl/day, accounting for 55% of total oil output, with record drilling speeds of 551m/day and 353m/day in key blocks.
- Downstream refinery utilization hit 94%, with a new real-time intelligence center launched at La Plata refinery to optimize operations and margins.
- LNG projects advanced with SESA's Hilli vessel (2.45 MTPA) set for 2027 startup and MKII vessel (3.5 MTPA) FID deadline of July 31, 2025. Total Argentina LNG capacity target is 30 MTPA by 2027.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q1 free cash flow was negative $957 million, impacted by $230 million mature field losses and $211 million M&A spend (Sierra Chata acquisition).
- Net debt rose to $8.3 billion, with net leverage at 1.8x, expected to decline to 1.5-1.6x by year-end post-mature field divestments.
- Issued $1.1 billion 9-year bond at 8.5% yield and $204 million local bonds in Q1, with $800 million debt maturities remaining in 2025 (71% local, 29% international).

**【Q&A Key Points】**
- **Oil price resilience**: Break-even Brent price of $60/bbl for EBITDA, with $2 billion annual CapEx needed to maintain production (shale decline rates offset by new wells).
- **LNG project timelines**: SESA's Hilli vessel FID granted, MKII vessel FID deadline July 31; ENI JV's Argentina LNG 3 (12 MTPA) targeting end-2025 FID.
- **Mature field divestments**: 11 blocks divested, with final province approvals expected Q3 2025. Post-divestment, EBITDA contribution from mature fields will be negligible.
- **CapEx flexibility**: No immediate plans to reduce 2025 $5-5.2 billion CapEx despite Brent at $60, as lower service costs offset price volatility.


YPF Sociedad Anónima (YPF) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Shale Oil Dominance**: Vaca Muerta now 80% of production at 150,000 bpd, up 26% YoY. 
- **Export Ambition**: 120,000 bpd via VMOS by 2026, targeting 500,000 bpd by 2027. 
- **Financial Strength**: $2.4B net income vs. -$1.3B, 1.6x net leverage. 
- **Cost Efficiency**: $405M savings, 92% refinery utilization. 
- **2025 Outlook**: Neutral cash flow, $5B CapEx focused on shale growth.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- YPF achieved a transformational year in 2024, exiting 49 mature oil blocks and reallocating $5B in CapEx to Vaca Muerta shale oil, which now accounts for 80% of production (150,000 bpd). 
- Launched VMOS pipeline to export 120,000 bpd by H2 2026, targeting 500,000 bpd by 2027. 
- Downstream efficiency initiatives saved $405M, with refinery utilization at 92% and diesel production up 24%. 
- Issued $2.4B in bonds at 8.5% yield, reducing net leverage to 1.6x.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- 2024 Revenue: $19.3B (+11% YoY) driven by higher oil prices and exports. 
- Adjusted EBITDA: $4.7B (+15%) despite $385M drag from mature fields. 
- Net Income: $2.4B vs. -$1.3B in 2023, driven by shale oil margins. 
- Free Cash Flow: -$760M due to CapEx, but Q4 turned positive at $64M. 
- 2025 Outlook: Neutral cash flow with $5B CapEx allocation.

**【Upstream Performance】**
- Shale oil production +26% YoY to 122,000 bpd, exceeding targets. 
- Drilled 207 wells (+14%), completed 189 (+17%), with 195 tied-ins (+29%). 
- Lifting costs: $15.6/bbl (excluding mature fields at $9/bbl). 
- Proved reserves +2% to 1.1B boe, with 78% in Vaca Muerta. 
- 2025 shale oil target: >160,000 bpd with $3B allocated to Vaca Muerta.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Vaca Muerta Expansion**: Confident to meet 180,000 bpd export target by Q4 2026 via VMOS pipeline. 
- **Price Sensitivity**: Will consider CapEx cuts if Brent < $60/bbl, but current drilling costs resilient. 
- **LNG Projects**: Argentine LNG project nearing FID, targeting 1.5M tpa. 
- **M&A Strategy**: Focused on Vaca Muerta shale gas blocks, acquired Sierra Chata for $136M with 54% stake. 
- **Free Cash Flow**: Neutral 2025 outlook with $5B CapEx, $1.5B cash buffer.

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