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What were the key takeaways from Venture Global’s earnings call?

- **Revenue Soars 260% YoY**: Q3 2025 revenue of $3.3 billion driven by Plaquemines ramp-up and Calcasieu Pass exports.
- **Record Contracting**: Signed 5.25 MTPA of new 20-year SPAs, including Greece's first U.S. LNG deal, with 89% of Q4 cargos contracted.
- **EBITDA Guidance Tightened**: $6.35-6.5 billion for 2025 reflects margin compression and timing of cargos.
- **Construction Speed**: CP2 Phase 1 engineering 99% complete, with 3,500+ workers on site. Plaquemines on track for Q4 2026 COD.
- **Arbitration Manageable**: BP arbitration impact estimated at $14-15 million/Q4, with $765 million cap on remaining exposures.
- **Liquidity Strong**: $3.5 billion cash post-Q3, including $2 billion new revolver and $30+ billion year-to-date capital raises.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2025 revenue reached $3.3 billion, up 260% YoY, driven by Plaquemines' ramp-up and Calcasieu Pass' 36 cargos exported. 
- **Project Milestones**: Achieved 500th cargo from Calcasieu Pass and 64 commissioning cargos at Plaquemines. Signed 5.25 MTPA of new 20-year SPAs, including 1 MTPA with Naturgy and 0.5 MTPA with Atlantic-SEE LNG.
- **Financial Performance**: Generated $1.5 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, up 439% YoY. Tightened 2025 EBITDA guidance to $6.35-6.5 billion due to margin compression and timing of cargos.
- **Construction Progress**: CP2 Phase 1 engineering 99% complete, with 3,500+ workers on site. Plaquemines on track for Q4 2026 COD despite $3.3 billion in incremental equity investments.
- **Arbitration Update**: BP arbitration panel ruled against Calcasieu Pass, but financial impact estimated at $14-15 million/Q4. Total remaining arbitration exposure capped at $765 million.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q3 Results**: GAAP net income $429 million, up $776 million YoY. Non-GAAP EPS exceeded expectations due to higher volumes and cost control.
- **Liquidity**: $3.5 billion cash post-Q3, including $2 billion new revolver. Year-to-date capital raises exceed $30 billion.
- **Guidance Sensitivity**: EBITDA sensitivity to liquefaction fees reduced to $50-60 million per $1/MMBtu, down from $230-240 million, due to Q3 contracting.
- **Arbitration Accounting**: $27 million noncash reserve for Q3, with $14-15 million/Q4 expected through 2045.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Arbitration Funding**: Mike Sabel emphasized strong liquidity ($50+ billion assets) to manage worst-case scenarios. Jack Thayer clarified $14-15 million/Q4 reserve is best estimate, not cash charge.
- **Contracting Momentum**: Signed most 20-year SPAs globally in Q3, with 89% of Q4 cargos contracted at $6.41/MMBtu avg fee.
- **Data Science Advantage**: Plaquemines streams 222,000 data points/10 seconds, enabling 140%+ of nameplate capacity. Similar approach applied to CP2 for 30 MTPA potential.
- **Power Plant Risks**: Calcasieu Pass maintenance limited impact due to redundancy. Plaquemines COD schedule intact despite temporary power use.
- **Ukraine Support**: Plaquemines' incremental 4% global LNG supply helps moderate European prices, supporting energy security.

Venture Global, Inc. (VG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q2 Performance**: 89 cargoes shipped, $3.1B revenue, $1.4B EBITDA (217% YoY growth).
- **CP2 Milestone**: FID for Phase 1 with $15.1B financing, 13.5 MTPA contracted, first LNG by end-2027.
- **Arbitration Win**: Tribunal ruled in VG's favor, supporting long-term contract integrity.
- **Demand Strength**: Europe storage deficit, China regas expansion to 260 MTPA, driving incremental LNG demand.
- **Expansion Ambition**: 100+ MTPA capacity by 2 52 cargoes contracted for 2026.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Announced FID for CP2 Phase 1, the largest stand-alone project financing ($15.1B) without issuing new equity.
- Signed 2 new 20-year SPAs with Petronas (2 MTPA) and Eni (2 MTPA), expanding SEPA contract to 3.75 MTPA, totaling 13.5 MTPA contracted for CP2 Phase 1.
- Q2 2025 results: 89 cargoes shipped (record), $3.1B revenue, $1.4B EBITDA (217% YoY growth), $368M net income.
- 2025 EBITDA guidance maintained at $6.4B-$6.8B, assuming $6-$7/MMBtu fixed liquefaction fees.
- CP2 Phase 1 expected to reach first LNG by end-2027, with 550+ cargoes exported during construction.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q2 2025 revenue: $3.1B (vs $1.1B YoY), driven by 329 TBtu volumes (vs 132 TBtu YoY).
- Weighted average fixed liquefaction fee: $5.58/MMBtu (vs $6.14/MMBtu YoY), commodity fee: $3.97/MMBtu (vs $2.20/MMBtu YoY).
- Income from operations: $1.0B (vs $363M YoY), net income: $368M (vs $303M YoY).
- 2025 EBITDA sensitivity: $230M-$240M per $1/MMBtu change in fees.
- Plaquemines Q3-Q4 2025 cargoes contracted at $7.04/MMBtu (64% of 102 cargoes), Calcasieu Pass at $1.95/MMBtu (74% of 326 cargoes).

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Arbitration Update**: Tribunal ruled in favor of VG's contract terms, reaffirming no early termination rights for customers. Similar outcomes expected for remaining cases.
- **CP2 Costs**: Phase 1 budget $15.1B, Phase 2 guided at $28.5B-$29.5B, including $210M-$350M tariff exposure. Factory-built trains (e.g., 2 stored in Italy) enable faster commissioning.
- **Demand Outlook**: Europe storage below trend, China regas capacity to 260 MTPA by 2030. VG uniquely positioned to capitalize on incremental demand with 17 MTPA excess capacity.
- **Project Execution**: Plaquemines ramp-up on track for 227-240 cargoes in 2025. CP2 Phase 1 construction 98% engineered pre-FID, with 1,200+ workers on site.
- **Expansion Strategy**: Brownfield expansions at CP2 (Phase 2/3) and Plaquemines targeting >100 MTPA by 2030. 52 cargoes already contracted for 2026 commissioning.


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