Did Riskified beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

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What does Riskified do and what are its main business segments?

What is Riskified's gross profit margin?

What were the key takeaways from Riskified’s earnings call?

What guidance did Riskified's management provide for the next earnings period?

What were the key takeaways from Riskified's earnings call?

What is the market's earnings forecast for Riskified next quarter?

- **Revenue Beat**: Q3 revenue $81.9M (+4% YoY), driven by 100% growth in Money Transfer & Payments and 13% in Fashion & Luxury.
- **Margin Expansion**: Non-GAAP gross margin 51% (vs. 50% Q2), with 70% autonomously trained models outperforming manual ones.
- **AI Impact**: Adaptive Checkout boosted conversions 5-26%, and Q4 EBITDA margin expected to reach 15%.
- **Holiday Optimism**: 3 largest categories (>66% GMV) tracking steady, with cautious Q4 outlook.
- **Share Buybacks**: $25.3M in Q3, targeting 5%+ YoY share reduction.

**CEO Summary Section**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 revenue reached $81.9 million, up 4% YoY, driven by new merchant wins and upsell activity across categories like Money Transfer & Payments (100% YoY growth) and Fashion & Luxury (13% YoY growth). 
- **Gross Profit Margin Expansion**: Non-GAAP gross profit margin improved to 51% (vs. 50% in Q2), supported by 70% of models now autonomously trained, outperforming manual models.
- **AI Investment Payoff**: Autonomous model retraining reduced chargebacks by 5% YoY across 4 of the last 5 cohorts. Adaptive Checkout boosted conversions by 5-26% for merchants in the U.S. and EMEA.
- **Holiday Outlook**: Cautiously optimistic for Q4, with GMV tracking in line with expectations and 3 largest categories (Tickets & Travel, Fashion & Luxury, Money Transfer) representing >66% of GMV.
- **Guidance Update**: Raised full-year revenue guidance to $338-346 million (midpoint $342M) and adjusted EBITDA to $21-27 million (midpoint $24M), reflecting margin expansion to ~15% in Q4.

**CFO Financial Commentary**
- **GMV Growth**: Q3 GMV of $37.8B (+9% YoY), with APAC (+55% YoY) and EMEA (+19% YoY) leading regional expansion.
- **Operating Efficiency**: Non-GAAP operating expenses declined 7% YoY to $36M, with OpEx as % of revenue at 44% (vs. 49% YoY). Free cash flow of $13.4M in Q3, guiding to >$30M for FY25.
- **Balance Sheet Strength**: $325M in cash, no debt, and 5.2M shares repurchased in Q3 ($25.3M), targeting 5%+ YoY share reduction.
- **Margin Targets**: Aiming for 52% non-GAAP gross margin annually, with Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin of ~15%.

**Q&A Highlights**
- **Growth Drivers**: Money Transfer & Payments category to nearly double FY25 revenue, while Agentic commerce (AI-driven purchases) presents new fraud risks and opportunities for partnerships.
- **Margin Trends**: Autonomous models offset headwinds from newer categories, with Q4 gross margin expected to improve sequentially. Long-term gross margin target of 52% remains.
- **Capital Allocation**: Buybacks and strategic investments balanced to maintain flexibility, with no immediate plans for acquisitions.
- **Agentic Commerce**: 2026 focus on partnerships with AI platforms to manage fraud in agent-driven transactions, with early merchant discussions underway.
- **EBITDA Outlook**: Q4 EBITDA margin of ~15% reflects operating leverage, with FY26 targets to be updated in Q1 '26 based on macro conditions.

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