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- **EPS Guidance Update**: Full-year 2025 EPS revised to $10.50-$11, reflecting cautious Access segment spending.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: $30-$40 million tariff impact in 2025; 2026 price increases拟议中.
- **Vocational Strength**: 15.6% margin on 19% sales growth, driven by fire trucks and airport products.
- **NGDV Challenges**: Q3 revenue of $146 million below expectations; full-rate production target for year-end.
- **Autonomous Innovation**: Showcased FMAV and autonomous GSE at industry events, highlighting defense and commercial applications.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Oshkosh released Q3 2025 results with revenue of $2.7 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.20. Forward-looking statements noted risks including tariffs, economic conditions, and government policies. The call included a slide presentation and webcast.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- **Financial Highlights**: Adjusted operating margin of 10.2% on $2.7 billion revenue. Adjusted EPS up 9.2% YoY to $3.20. Full-year EPS guidance revised to $10.50-$11 due to cautious Access segment spending.
- **Segment Performance**: 
  - **Access**: 11% margin despite 19% sales decline. Customers delaying CapEx amid tariffs and interest rates.
  - **Vocational**: 15.6% margin on $968 million sales, driven by fire trucks and airport products.
  - **Transport**: 6.2% margin, boosted by $25 million software IP license and NGDV production challenges.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: Local-for-local manufacturing to mitigate tariffs. Autonomous vehicle advancements showcased at industry events.

**【CFO Commentary】**
- **Consolidated Results**: Sales down 2% YoY to $2.7 billion. Adjusted operating income of $274 million. Free cash flow of $464 million, up 69% YoY.
- **Segment Breakdown**: 
  - **Access**: 11% margin on $1.1 billion sales, 19% lower YoY.
  - **Vocational**: 15.6% margin, 19% sales growth.
  - **Transport**: 6.2% margin, $48 million sales growth.
- **Liquidity**: $159 million in share repurchases YTD. 2025 free cash flow outlook of $450-$550 million.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Tariffs and Pricing**: $30-$40 million tariff impact in 2025, with potential 2026 price increases. Multifaceted mitigation strategies include supply chain engineering and sourcing.
- **NGDV Challenges**: Fourth-quarter revenue of $146 million below expectations due to production ramp-up challenges. Full-rate production target for year-end remains.
- **Warranty Costs**: One-time $13 million charge in Q3 for defense vehicles, not recurring.
- **Defense Business**: Autonomous capabilities differentiate Oshkosh in CTT program bids.


Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Strong Q2 Results**: $2.7B revenue, 11.5% margin, $3.41 EPS beat expectations, driven by Vocational and Transport segments.
- **2028 Growth Targets**: 7-10% CAGR and 200-400bps margin expansion, supported by defense contracts (FMTV, FHTV) and NGDV ramp-up.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: 100% offset expected via local production, supplier resourcing, and business outperformance.
- **Free Cash Flow Boost**: Guidance raised to $400-500M, enabling accelerated share buybacks ($120M+ in 2025).
- **Segment Highlights**: 
  - **Vocational**: 16.3% margin, 15% revenue growth, 20% fire apparatus expansion.
  - **Transport**: 3.7% margin (vs. 2.1% YoY), NGDV share rising to 22% of sales.
  - **Access**: 14.8% margin resilience despite 11% revenue decline, 1.2B backlog supporting H2.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Highlighted the success of the June 2025 Investor Day, emphasizing 2028 targets: 7-10% CAGR and 200-400bps margin expansion.
- Q2 2025 results: $2.7B revenue, 11.5% adjusted operating margin, $3.41 EPS (2.1% YoY growth).
- Key achievements: FMTV sole-source contract with DoD, 1.5M cumulative miles for NGDV, and 20% fire apparatus revenue growth.
- Strategic focus on autonomy, electrification, and connected products, supported by long-term market trends.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q2 2025: $2.7B revenue (-4% YoY), $313M adjusted operating income, $3.41 EPS (+2.1% YoY).
- Free cash flow: $49M (vs. -$251M YoY), driven by tax timing and receivables management.
- Share buybacks: $40M in Q2, $70M YTD, with plans to accelerate pace.
- 2025 guidance: $11 EPS (pre-tariff), $400-500M free cash flow (up from $300-400M).
- Tariff mitigation: 100% offset expected, with dynamic environment requiring ongoing actions.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Access Segment**: 14.8% margin on $1.26B sales, 2-3% discounts expected, 1.2B backlog (54% of H2 guide). Seasonality and project demand (infrastructure, data centers) support outlook.
- **Vocational Segment**: 16.3% margin (220bps YoY), 15% revenue growth, pricing in backlog driving 2-3yr margin benefits.
- **Transport Segment**: 3.7% margin (vs. 2.1% YoY), NGDV share rising to 22% of sales, FHTV contract pricing driving margin improvement.
- **Tariffs**: Dynamic environment, 100% offset expected via local-for-local strategy, supplier negotiations, and business outperformance.
- **Capital Allocation**: Share buybacks ($120M+ in 2025), M&A focus on adjacent markets, and investment-grade balance sheet maintenance.


Oshkosh Corporation (OSK) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Strong Q1 Execution**: $2.3B revenue, 8.3% margin, and $1.92 EPS in line with guidance despite Access headwinds.
- **Vocational Outperformance**: 12% revenue growth, 15% margin, and $6.3B backlog driven by refuse/recycling tech.
- **Defense Momentum**: NGDV ramping to full-rate Q4; 150-unit JLTV order signals international growth.
- **Tariff Resilience**: $1 EPS headwind offset by $0.50 cost actions; 90%+ U.S. production mitigates supply chain risk.
- **Access Resilience**: 11.3% margin with $1.8B backlog, localization success, and stable customer sentiment.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- **Q1 2025 Highlights**: Total revenue of $2.3B, adjusted operating margin of 8.3%, and EPS of $1.92 in line with expectations.
- **Segment Performance**: 
  - **Vocational**: 12% YoY revenue growth, 15% operating margin, $6.3B backlog driven by refuse/recycling vehicles.
  - **Access**: Resilient 11.3% margin despite lower sales, $1.8B backlog, and localization efforts to mitigate EU tariffs.
  - **Defense**: NGDV production ramping up for full-rate by year-end; 150-unit JLTV order from Netherlands.
- **Tariff Strategy**: 90%+ U.S.-built products, proactive supply chain mitigation, and no secondary demand impacts.

**【CFO Financial Details】**
- **Q1 Financials**: GAAP net income $420M, Non-GAAP EPS $1.92, free cash flow ($435M) due to seasonal working capital.
- **Tariff Impact**: Direct $1 EPS headwind (back-half loaded), $0.50 offset via cost actions; no material Q2 impact from inventories.
- **Liquidity**: New $500M term loan reduces revolver balance; $29M share buybacks in Q1.

**【Key Q&A Takeaways】**
- **Tariff Mitigation**: Focus on top 3 tariff-affected regions, localization (e.g., Italy boom production), and prudent pricing.
- **Defense Margin**: Sequential improvement expected as NGDV ramps; Q1 breakeven not indicative of full-year performance.
- **Access Demand**: Healthy backlog and utilization rates, with private non-res construction cautious but stable.
- **Vocational Growth**: Dealer network expansion and tech investments driving refuse/recycling vehicle sales.
- **Tariff Timing**: 2025 impact via cost control; 2026+ via supply chain reorganization and localization.


Oshkosh (OSK)-30 Apr 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Record 2024 Results**: $10.8B revenue, $11.74 EPS, 10.5% operating margin. 11% dividend increase reflects confidence in cash flow.
- **Vocational Dominance**: 20% Q4 growth, 15%+ 2025 margin target. Fire trucks and refuse vehicles lead the charge.
- **Defense Transformation**: NGDV ramp to full production by 2025, TWV contract re-pricing driving 2026+ margin expansion.
- **Sustainability & Innovation**: CES showcases AI, autonomy, and electric vehicles. Sixth year on Dow Jones Sustainability Index.
- **2025 Outlook**: Balanced at $11 EPS, with Vocational and Defense growth offsetting Access decline. Free cash flow expected to improve post-2025 timing delays.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2024 Full Year Performance**: Revenue of $10.8 billion and adjusted EPS of $11.74, up 11.4% and 24.5% respectively. Operating margin improved by 110 basis points to 10.5%.
- **Vocational Segment Growth**: Q4 revenue up nearly 20% YoY, driven by municipal fire trucks and refuse vehicles. Backlog remains robust with production ramp-up underway.
- **Innovation Highlights**: Launch of NGDV for USPS, HARR-E autonomous refuse robot, and Volterra ZFL eRCV. Named to Dow Jones Sustainability Index for sixth consecutive year.
- **2025 Outlook**: Adjusted EPS guidance of $11, with growth in Vocational and Defense offsetting softer Access segment. Dividend increased 11% to $0.51 per share.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2024 Results**: Revenue $2.62 billion (+6%), adjusted operating income $245 million (9.4% margin), adjusted EPS $2.58. Free cash flow $270 million, below expectations due to timing delays.
- **Segment Guidance 2025**: 
  - **Access**: $4.4 billion (-15%), 13% margin. First-half weaker due to non-residential construction, improving in H2.
  - **Vocational**: $3.8 billion (+38%), 15% margin. Price-cost dynamics and volume growth driving expansion.
  - **Defense**: $2.3 billion (+22%), 4% margin. NGDV ramp-up and contract re-pricing supporting growth.
- **Liquidity**: $2.1 billion available under revolving credit facility. Share buybacks of $50 million in Q4.

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
- **Vocational Resilience**: Municipal fire truck backlog driving 15%+ margin expansion. Telehandler production ramp in Jefferson City on track despite CAT contract changes.
- **Defense Margin Cadence**: 4% 2025 margin reflects NGDV ramp and TWV contract re-pricing. Full rate NGDV production by end-2025.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: Global manufacturing flexibility (e.g., shifting China to Europe) limits tariff impact. U.S. manufacturing focus continues.
- **Access Segment**: 2025 sales decline (-15%) expected, but 13% margin resilience via cost control and mix shift to nationals.
- **NGDV Execution**: USPS feedback positive; production ramp aligns with Postal Service needs. No risk of contract changes under new administration.

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