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- **2025 Guidance Upped**: $100M increase, reaffirmed with Q3 EPS +32% to $2.78 and record EBITDA.
- **2026 Vision**: Stand-alone EBITDA $3.9B-$4.2B, free cash flow $2.1B, driven by data center expansion and LS Power accretion.
- **Data Center Momentum**: 5.4 GW pipeline, pricing >$80/MWh, 445 MW contracted with hyperscalers.
- **Smart Home Surge**: 9% customer growth vs. 5%-6% target, $272M EBITDA, VPP adoption doubling expectations.
- **LS Power Deal**: $4.9B financing done, Q1 2026 close; 14% EPS CAGR (stand-alone) + pro forma upside post-merger.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Raised 2025 financial guidance by $100 million, reaffirming the higher range.
- Introduced 2026 stand-alone guidance with adjusted EBITDA of $3.925B-$4.175B and free cash flow of $1.975B-$2.225B.
- Expanded data center power agreements to 445 MW, with a pipeline of 5.4 GW under joint development and LOIs.
- Q3 2025 adjusted EPS up 32% YoY to $2.78, and record quarterly EBITDA of $1.205B.
- LS Power acquisition on track for Q1 2026 close, with $4.9B debt financing completed.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 2025: Adjusted EPS $2.78 (32% YoY), EBITDA $1.205B (1% YoY), free cash flow $828M.
- Year-to-date: Adjusted EPS $7.17 (36% YoY), EBITDA $3.2B (12% YoY), free cash flow $2.035B (42% YoY).
- Segment performance: Texas (+38% EBITDA), East (+modest decline), West/Services/Other (+$19M), Smart Home $272M EBITDA.
- 2025 free cash flow guidance: $2.1B-$2.25B, with $1.3B share buybacks completed (85% of target).
- 2026 capital allocation: $1B share buybacks, 7%-9% dividend growth, and $3B buyback authorization through 2028.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Data Center Strategy**: 5.4 GW pipeline with GE Vernova/Kiewit partnership; pricing above $80/MWh reflects demand and execution strength.
- **LS Power Impact**: Post-close, pro forma guidance will include LS assets; 14% EPS CAGR (stand-alone) driven by Texas growth and LS accretion.
- **Smart Home Growth**: 9% YoY customer adds vs. 5%-6% plan; expanding net service margins with VPP and home automation pilots.
- **Market Trends**: ERCOT demand up 30% YoY; policymakers focusing on affordability and reliability (e.g., Texas SB 6).

NRG Energy, Inc.(NRG)-20251106-2025 Q3 Earnings call transcript

Revenue

Sales and Services Revenue

Financing Services Revenue

Other Revenue

Cost of Revenue

Cost of Goods and Services

Cost of Financing Services

Other Cost

Gross Profit

Other Operating Income

Operating Expenses

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses

Selling and Marketing Expenses

General and Administrative Expenses

Research and Development Expenses

Loss on Bad Debts

Loss on Impairment of Other Assets

Loss on Disposal of Assets

Other Operating Expenses

Operating Income

Non-Operating Income (Loss)

Income (Loss) from Affiliates

Income (Loss) from Associates

Income (Loss) from Joint ventures

Gain (Loss) on Other Investment

Gain (Loss) on Change in Fair Value

Gain (Loss) on Foreign Currency Exchange

Other Non-Operating Income (Loss)

Net Interest Expense

Interest Expense

Interest Income

Pretax Income From Continuing Operations

Income Tax Expense

Current Income Tax

Deferred Income Tax

Income Tax Adjustments

Net Income from Continuing Operations

Income from Discontinued Operations

Other Items Before Net Income

Net Income

Net Income Attributable to Minority Interests

Net Income Attributable to Owners of the Company

Preferred Stock Dividends

Other Adjustments

Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders

Other Comprehensive Income

Total Comprehensive Income

Total Comprehensive Income Attributable to Minority Interests

Total Comprehensive Income Attributable to Owners of the Company

Basic EPS

Basic EPS from Continuing Operations

Basic EPS from Discontinued Operations

Diluted EPS

Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations

Diluted EPS from Discontinued Operations

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