What does National Fuel Gas do and what are its main business segments?

What is National Fuel Gas's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What were the key takeaways from National Fuel Gas’s earnings call?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for National Fuel Gas year over year?

What is the market's earnings forecast for National Fuel Gas next quarter?

What were the key takeaways from National Fuel Gas's earnings call?

Did National Fuel Gas beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What factors drove the changes in National Fuel Gas's revenue and profit?

- **Record Earnings Growth**: Q4 EPS up 58% YoY to $1.22, full-year EPS up 38% to $4.32, driven by capital-efficient Upstream expansion.
- **Inventory Expansion**: 220 new Upper Utica locations double EDA inventory, supporting 20+ years of < $2/MMBtu production.
- **Pipeline Expansion**: 250M/d takeaway capacity (2028) and $57M Shipping Port lateral (2026) underpin mid-single-digit production growth.
- **Acquisition Momentum**: $1.3B Ohio Gas deal doubles utility rate base, with $300M equity issuance planned for spring 2026.
- **Free Cash Flow Strength**: $300M-$350M 2026 free cash flow (40% YoY growth) supports dividend and regulated growth initiatives.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Record Financial Performance**: Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.22 (58% YoY growth), full-year EPS up 38% to $4.32, driven by integrated Upstream and Gathering growth.
- **Capital Efficiency**: 30% improvement since 2023, with $605M capital spending in FY25 vs. $640M in FY24, enabling 9% production growth.
- **Inventory Expansion**: Added 220 Upper Utica locations, doubling EDA inventory to ~400 locations, with 20+ years of economic production at < $2/MMBtu.
- **Pipeline Growth**: Tioga Pathway (2026) and new 250M/d capacity (2028) support mid-single-digit production growth; Shipping Port lateral ($57M, 2026) adds 205M/d capacity.
- **Strategic Acquisition**: $1.3B CenterPoint Ohio Gas deal doubles utility rate base, enhancing free cash flow reinvestment.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **2026 Guidance**: EPS $7.60-$8.10 (14% midpoint growth), free cash flow $300M-$350M, up 40% YoY, supporting dividend and acquisition.
- **Hedging Strategy**: 65% of 2026 production hedged at $4.00/MMBtu, with 2027-28 swaps >$4.00 and collars at $3.60-$4.80 floors.
- **Debt Management**: $1.3B bridge facility bifurcated into 364-day term loan and traditional bridge; targeting spring 2026 equity issuance for ~$300M equity contribution.
- **Regulated Growth**: FERC rate case filing in 2H26 for Supply Corp, and PA utility rate case to address $15M+ modernization cap exceedance.

**【Upstream & Gathering Update】**
- **Production Growth**: FY25 net production 427Bcfe (9% YoY), with 4 Upper Utica wells matching Lower Utica productivity.
- **Cost Efficiency**: 2026 capital $550M-$610M (3% YoY decline), targeting $500M-$575M by 2028 with mid-single-digit production growth.
- **Market Access**: 85% of 2026 volumes locked into firm sales/transport, with spot exposure optimized for seasonal in-basin pricing.
- **Sustainability**: Equitable Origin A rating for Midstream, A grade for Seneca, enabling premium pricing for responsibly sourced gas.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Upper Utica Development**: 2026 wells ~5% Upper Utica, scaling to balanced mix by 2028; co-development with Lower Utica optimizes midstream infrastructure.
- **In-Basin Demand**: Multiple data center pipeline inquiries leverage NFG's integrated Upstream-Gathering-Transmission model.
- **Debt Allocation**: Parent-level fungible debt structure; ~$300M equity for Ohio Gas acquisition, rest from free cash flow.
- **Acquisition Timing**: Regulatory approvals expected early 2026, closing in Q4 2026; no asset sales planned for financing.

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Production & Efficiency**: Seneca production up 16% Q3, with 2026 guidance of 6% growth on 4% less capital. Gen 3 wells exceed type curves, driving LOE down 1.6%.
- **Pipeline Growth**: $30M+ annual revenue from Shippingport and Tioga projects, supporting 5%-7% rate base growth through 2030.
- **Financial Strength**: 2026 EPS up 20% to $8-$8.50, with $350M-$400M free cash flow. Federal tax reform cuts cash tax rate by 200-300 bps.
- **Strategic Positioning**: Pennsylvania's $90B data center investment and New York's revised energy plan create infrastructure growth opportunities. Seneca's 20-year inventory breakeven at $2.50/MMBtu.
- **Buyback Pause**: Capital allocation prioritizes growth; buyback may resume in 2026 if no acquisitions. Stock near all-time highs.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Production Growth**: Seneca's Q3 production up 16% YoY, with full-year guidance raised to 420-425 Bcf (8% YoY growth). Fiscal 2026 production expected to increase 6% to 440-455 Bcf, with 4% lower capital spending.
- **Pipeline Expansion**: Shippingport Lateral (7-mile expansion) and Tioga Pathway projects to generate $30M+ annual revenue, supporting mid-single-digit rate base growth. Construction begins Q2 2026.
- **Capital Allocation**: Dividend raised 55th consecutive year to $2.14/share. Buyback program paused to evaluate growth opportunities; may resume in 2026 if no acquisitions.
- **State Policy**: Pennsylvania's $90B data center investment and New York's revised energy plan create infrastructure growth opportunities. National Fuel is well-positioned to supply gas to new power plants and data centers.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q3 Results**: Adjusted operating income up 66% YoY, driven by higher gas prices and lower Seneca costs. Fiscal 2025 EPS narrowed to $6.80-$6.95, with $4 NYMEX strip projecting 20% YoY growth to $8-$8.50 in 2026.
- **Hedging Strength**: 85% of 2026 production hedged with swaps, collars, and fixed sales. Collar floors at $3.50 and ceilings at $4.75 provide upside exposure to higher prices.
- **Free Cash Flow**: Projected at $350M-$400M in 2026 (at $4 NYMEX), supporting capital spending while maintaining investment-grade balance sheet.
- **Tax Benefits**: Federal tax reform reduces corporate AMT payments for at least 5 years, lowering cash tax rate by 200-300 basis points.

**【Seneca Operations Update】**
- **Gen 3 Well Performance**: Tioga Utica wells show 20%-25% improvement in estimated ultimate recoveries and deliverability. Recent pads exceed type curves, with wells sustaining 25-30Mcf/day rates for over a year.
- **Cost Efficiency**: LOE reduced to $0.67-$0.68/Mcf (down $0.01), with D&C costs per foot declining. Fiscal 2025 capital guidance tightened to $500M-$510M, 2026 capex expected to drop 4%.
- **Third-Party Growth**: Interconnect agreement with Tioga County producer to gather new volumes, with potential for additional third-party partnerships.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Buyback Pause**: Capital allocation prioritizes growth over returns; buyback may resume in 2026 if no acquisitions. Stock near all-time highs, but flexibility needed for pipeline and midstream opportunities.
- **Pipeline Projects**: NESE and Constitution pipelines could benefit Seneca by creating incremental demand and improving in-basin pricing. NESE has higher near-term potential for freeing up firm transportation capacity.
- **Market Trends**: U.S. LNG exports exceed 16Bcf/day, gas-fired power generation at record highs. Seneca's 20-year inventory breakeven at $2.50/MMBtu, positioning for long-term growth.
- **Regulatory Outlook**: Pennsylvania's data center investments and New York's revised energy plan signal regulatory tailwinds for natural gas infrastructure expansion.


National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **30% Q2 Revenue Growth**: Driven by Seneca's 8% production surge and regulated utility rate wins.
- **$4+ Hedges Secured**: 76 Bcf of fiscal '26/'27 hedges lock in upside while protecting downside.
- **$15M Tioga Pathway Impact**: Project on track to boost pipeline revenue starting 2025.
- **Gen 3 Well Success**: 300Mcf/d production validates capital efficiency trend (2023-25 capex down 14%).
- **$200M Buyback Target**: Resuming share repurchases as macro stabilizes, with $1B debt refinanced at record lows.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q2 revenue increased 30% YoY, driven by strong performance across all businesses.
- Seneca Resources achieved 8% sequential production growth, with Utica wells exceeding expectations.
- Regulated utility EPS rose $0.22 due to NY PSC rate settlement, with pipeline business benefiting from FERC rate adjustments.
- Tioga Pathway Project on track for summer 2025 certification, adding $15M annual revenue.
- Emphasized need for federal permitting reform to accelerate infrastructure projects.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- Adjusted operating results up 32% QoQ, driven by higher gas prices and cost control.
- Added 76 Bcf of fiscal '26/'27 hedges at $4+ floor, retaining upside via collars.
- Guidance updated to $6.75-$7.05 EPS (midpoint +$0.15), assuming $3.50 NYMEX.
- Capital allocation: $200M buyback target by end-2025, $1B debt issuance at record low spreads.

**【Midstream President Update】**
- Seneca production hit 106 Bcf (QoQ +8%), with Gen 3 wells producing 300Mcf/d.
- Midstream gathering volumes at all-time high of 130 Bcf, supported by 90%+ firm sales.
- Capital efficiency improving: 2023-2025 capex down 14% ($588M → $505M), trend expected to continue.
- Exploring Gen 4 well designs with higher frac intensity for further productivity gains.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- Buyback pace cautious amid macro uncertainty, but targeting $200M completion by end-2025.
- Constitution Pipeline unlikely without NY regulatory change; focused on FERC/DOE permitting reforms.
- Gas price outlook bullish due to LNG export growth, tight storage levels, and in-basin power demand.
- Regulated M&A focus on LDCs; no immediate plans for upstream M&A beyond bolt-ons.
- 2026+ capex expected to remain flat or decline, driven by well design efficiency gains.

National Fuel Gas Company (NFG) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q1 Growth Standout**: 14% EPS jump driven by regulated wins ($130M+ margin) and Seneca's 6% production surge, with capital efficiency down 14% since FY23.
- **Gas Price Tailwind**: $3.50/MBtu NYMEX and $0.60 basis improvement support $1B+ free cash flow over 3 years.
- **Data Center Expansion**: Early-stage developer discussions leverage unique PA assets (land, gas, climate), with potential for integrated solutions.
- **Debt Management**: $1B FY25 maturities to be managed via new issuance in low-spread environment, with buyback program on track.
- **M&A Flexibility**: Open to regulated-side growth and E&P bolt-ons, but no immediate moves.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Strong Q1 Performance**: Adjusted operating results up 14% YoY, driven by 30% EPS growth in regulated subsidiaries and 6% sequential production increase in non-regulated businesses.
- **Rate Case Wins**: New York rate settlement adds $130M+ margin vs. FY23, with 9.7% ROE and modernization spending visibility. Pennsylvania DSIC surcharge begins this month.
- **Capital Efficiency**: Seneca's capital expenditures down 14% since FY23, while production up 12%, best-in-class in Appalachia.
- **Data Center Growth**: Actively engaging with developers for integrated solutions, leveraging pipeline infrastructure and long-term gas supply contracts.
- **Gas Outlook**: Record winter demand, storage withdrawals, and $3.50/MBtu pricing support $1B+ free cash flow over 3 years.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q1 Results**: Adjusted EPS of $1.66 (up 14%), GAAP net income $123M, with non-cash impairments in E&P segment.
- **FY25 Guidance Update**: Adjusted EPS range $6.50-$7.00 (midpoint +17% vs. prior guidance), driven by NYMEX $3.50/MBtu and improved basis differentials.
- **Free Cash Flow**: Expect significant growth from non-regulated businesses, supporting $200M buyback program completion by year-end.
- **Balance Sheet**: $1B debt maturities in FY25, with flexibility to manage via new issuance in low-spread environment.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Data Center Progress**: Early-stage discussions with developers, focusing on Pennsylvania's unique value proposition (land, gas access, climate). No announcements yet.
- **Production Growth Strategy**: Maintain low-mid single-digit growth, prioritizing takeaway capacity (e.g., 50M/day new Gulf Coast firm transport). No immediate inflection in activity.
- **Capital Allocation**: Buyback program on track, dividend sustainability, and debt management balanced against free cash flow growth.
- **M&A Outlook**: Open to regulated-side scale and smaller E&P bolt-ons, but no immediate priorities.
- **Northern Access Pipeline**: No near-term plans, but rights and permits retained for future consideration.

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