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Did Intrepid Potash beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

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What factors drove the changes in Intrepid Potash's revenue and profit?

- **Record Financials**: Q3 2025 EBITDA of $12 million, year-to-date $45 million (highest since 2015), driven by price hikes and cost reductions.
- **Trio Dominance**: Trio production up 15% YoY, 2026 forecast 285,000-295,000 tons, with COGS improving 5-7%.
- **Market Resilience**: Potash pricing near 2023 levels, Trio at potash parity, supported by China soybean deals and strong exports.
- **Capital Focus**: $30-34 million 2025 capex for operational efficiency, with AMAX Cavern project prioritized over shareholder returns.

**【CEO Summary】**
- **Financial Performance**: Q3 2025 net income of $3.7 million and adjusted EBITDA of $12 million, up from Q3 2024's net loss of $1.8 million and EBITDA of $10 million. Year-to-date EBITDA of $45 million is the highest since 2015.
- **Key Drivers**: Higher pricing in Potash and Trio (full realization of first-half price increases) and improved unit economics (Potash COGS down 9% to $327/ton, Trio COGS down 15% to $238/ton).
- **Operational Highlights**: Trio production exceeded expectations, with Q3 production of 70,000 tons. 2026 Trio production forecasted at 285,000-295,000 tons, targeting 5-7% cost improvement.
- **Market Outlook**: Positive U.S. agriculture trends (China soybean purchases, corn/corn exports), balanced global potash supply-demand, and Trio pricing near potash parity.
- **Projects**: AMAX Cavern permitting expected to conclude Q1 2026; Trio to receive another continuous miner in Q1 2026 for further production growth.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Potash Segment**: Q3 average net price $381/ton (up $60/ton vs. Q1), sales volumes 62,000 tons (12-month production increase). Q3 gross margin $6.3 million, up $2.2 million YoY. 2026 production guidance 270,000-280,000 tons, with COGS expected to rise 5-7% due to pond harvesting delays.
- **Trio Segment**: Q3 sales 36,000 tons at $402/ton, COGS $257/ton (down 5% YoY). Q3 gross margin $4.4 million, up $4 million YoY. 2026 sales forecast 80,000-90,000 tons/Q4, with fill program driving momentum.
- **Oilfield Solutions**: Q3 gross margin down due to lower frac activity, but year-to-date performance consistent. Land sale of 95 acres yielded $2.2 million gain.
- **Capital Allocation**: 2025 capex $30-34 million (including $5 million for AMAX Cavern). Debt-free balance sheet with $74 million cash.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **AMAX Cavern**: Permitting expected Q1 2026; capital spend $5-6 million for injection well and pipeline. Project prioritized over shareholder returns until operational consistency achieved.
- **Demand Trends**: Strong Trio fill program response (80,000-90,000 tons Q4 guidance), Potash order book solid despite U.S. ag headwinds. Trio pricing supported by low chloride premium and sulfur trends.
- **Cost Dynamics**: Potash COGS up 5-7% in 2026 due to pond harvesting delays; Trio unit costs to improve with higher production.
- **Oilfield Outlook**: Q4 activity lower than Q1-Q2, but 2026 margins expected to stabilize with reduced frac exposure.


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