Did The Hershey beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for The Hershey year over year?

What were the key takeaways from The Hershey’s earnings call?

What is the market's earnings forecast for The Hershey next quarter?

What does The Hershey do and what are its main business segments?

What is The Hershey's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What is The Hershey's gross profit margin?

What guidance did The Hershey's management provide for the next earnings period?

- **2026 Outlook**: Balanced growth with 2-4% revenue target, cautious elasticity (-1%), and cocoa/tariff relief potential for EPS upside.
- **Halloween Strategy**: Slow start but strong CMG momentum; analyzing consumer data for future seasonal adjustments.
- **Innovation Success**: REESE'S Oreo drives 14% salty snacks growth; pipeline includes SkinnyPop and Dot's innovations.
- **Cocoa and Tariffs**: Cocoa costs 70% higher than 2023, moderate relief expected; $200M tariff impact with optimism on trade deals.
- **Consumer Resilience**: CMG category resilient despite broader challenges; minimal SNAP impact (2% of sales).

**【2026 Outlook and Elasticity】**
- CEO Kirk Tanner emphasizes balanced growth with category alignment and margin recovery, targeting 2-4% revenue growth and potential EPS upside beyond algorithm.
- CFO Steve Voskuil highlights cautious elasticity assumption of -1%, with Q3 pricing showing double-digit CMG growth and no immediate concerns over competitor pricing cadence.
- Cocoa costs remain 70% higher than 2023, but moderate relief expected in 2026; tariffs modeled at $200M incremental impact, with optimism on trade deals.

**【Halloween Performance and Strategy】**
- Halloween sales start slow due to Friday timing, but everyday CMG grows double digits in last 4 weeks.
- Management plans to analyze consumer insights for future seasonal adjustments, focusing on product mix and pricing points.

**【Innovation and Salty Snacks Growth】**
- REESE'S Oreo drives innovation success, with salty snacks up 14% Y/Y, led by SkinnyPop, Dot's Pretzels, and Pirate's Booty expansion.
- Salty snacks pipeline includes Dot's and SkinnyPop innovations, targeting permissible snacking and category growth.

**【Cocoa Costs and Tariffs】**
- Cocoa costs expected to moderate in 2026, with hedging strategy allowing downside participation; tariffs remain a headwind but trade deals offer hope.
- CFO notes 2026 cocoa inflation modeled but moderating, with cocoa-intensive international business lagging in profitability recovery.

**【International Business Challenges】**
- International segment faces cocoa intensity and elasticity challenges, but shares growing in Brazil and other markets.
- Management optimistic on long-term recovery as cocoa costs stabilize.

**【Consumer Sentiment and SNAP Impact】**
- Consumer resilience in CMG category despite broader sentiment challenges; SNAP impact minimal (2% of category sales), with minimal expected 2026 impact.

**【Tax Rate Adjustments】**
- 2025 tax rate affected by legacy reserves, cocoa procurement strategies, and reduced tax credit investments.
- 2026 tax guidance pending, with focus on ROI and quality thresholds for tax credits.

The Hershey Company (HSY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **On-Algorithm Growth Expected**: 2026 EPS set to achieve on-algorithm growth with current cocoa and tariff assumptions.
- **Pricing Impact**: 2026 gross margin to expand 500+ bps, with 80% of benefits from pricing and cost savings.
- **Tariff Optimism**: Potential cocoa tariff relief could add 100-200bps to 2026 margins.
- **Innovation Momentum**: Salty snacks (Dot's, SkinnyPop) and confectionery innovation driving category outperformance.
- **Tax Challenges**: 250bps tax rate headwind to persist due to sourcing strategies and reduced tax credits.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Emphasized Hershey's long-term investments in brands, technology (e.g., ERP, AI), and margin recovery despite cocoa price volatility.
- Highlighted confidence in current business momentum, with no need for a 'reset' under new CEO Kirk Tanner.
- Kirk's qualifications include 30+ years in CPG, consumer-centric focus, and experience in iconic brands and distribution networks.
- Q2 2025 results show top-line momentum, with 6.7% growth in everyday chocolate category, driven by innovation (e.g., Jolly Rancher Ropes, Oreo) and emotional well-being appeal.
- Halloween 2025 outlook is strong, with retailers prioritizing seasonal programs despite mid-summer shipments.
- Salty snacks (Dot's, SkinnyPop) are outperforming category trends, supported by marketing, innovation, and multipack distribution.
- Take-home chocolate faces pressure from private label, but instant consumables are gaining share through expanded distribution.
- Innovation spending as a % of sales is up significantly vs. 2019, with 75% of items priced under $4 to maintain value perception.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Pricing actions in 2025 will drive ~2% top-line growth, with 80% of margin benefits flowing into 2026 (mid-teens price/mix impact).
- Gross margin expected to expand by 500+ bps in 2026, excluding cocoa and tariffs, through pricing, cost savings, and smart complexity.
- Cocoa costs remain inflationary for 2026, but hedging and new origin investments (e.g., Ivory Coast fertilizer use) provide hope for future relief.
- Tariffs on cocoa could be mitigated through supply chain optimization, but no pricing actions tied to tariffs yet.
- Tax rate headwinds (~250bps) will persist due to cocoa sourcing strategies and reduced tax credit utilization.
- On-algorithm EPS growth in 2026 is achievable with current cocoa and tariff assumptions, with potential upside if tariffs are resolved.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Pricing Elasticity**: 1:1 elasticity assumption for 2025 holds, with 2026 elasticity modeling as 'favorable' due to portfolio breadth. Pricing covers ~80% of 2025 cocoa inflation, but full margin recovery requires additional cost savings.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: Optimistic about cocoa tariff exemptions, with government understanding of cocoa's non-domestic sourcing. Supply chain agility (e.g., U.S. manufacturing shifts) is key to long-term mitigation.
- **Halloween Performance**: Q2 shipments reflect retailer anticipation of summer wean trend, but Q4 2025 comparisons will be tougher due to 2024 innovation ramp-up.
- **SNAP & GLP-1 Impact**: No material impact on 2025 demand, but long-term monitoring of consumer health trends and policy changes.
- **Gross Margin Path**: 500+ bps expansion in 2026 driven by pricing, $100M+ transformation savings, and reduced complexity costs. Cocoa and tariffs could add 100-200bps of upside if resolved.


The Hershey Company (HSY) Q2 2025 Q&A Earnings Call Transcript

- **Tariff Risk Management**: $100M/quarter unmitigated Q3/Q4 impact, with 2/3 from Cocoa. Aggressive mitigation plan includes pricing, sourcing, and lobbying.
- **2025 EPS Guidance**: Full-year down ~30%, Q2 gross margin drop ~700bps due to tariffs & Easter timing.
- **2026 Growth Path**: Still achievable with balanced top/bottom line growth, despite elevated Cocoa prices.
- **Sweets Outperformance**: +100bps YTD share, driven by innovation (e.g., Shaq, Freeze-Dried).
- **SNAP Regulation Resilience**: <2% of sales impacted, core chocolate products use natural ingredients.
- **Cocoa Vertical Integration**: New chocolate paste plant improves supply chain control, despite weaker consumer sentiment.


**【CEO & CFO Key Themes】**
- **Tariff Mitigation Plan**: Unmitigated Q3/Q4 tariff impact could be $100M/quarter, with 2/3 from Cocoa and Canadian retaliatory tariffs. Mitigation efforts include lobbying, pricing, sourcing, and manufacturing changes.
- **2025 EPS Guidance**: Full-year EPS down ~30% (mid-30s decline), with Q2 EPS decline <1Q (Easter timing & ERP reversals). Q2 gross margin expected to drop ~700bps.
- **2026 Outlook**: Still see path to earnings growth next year despite tariffs, driven by balanced top/bottom line growth and aggressive cost actions.
- **Sweets & Salty Growth**: Sweets share +100bps YTD, driven by innovation (e.g., Shaq, J.R. Ropes). Salty portfolio remains premium, with 2% of SNAP purchases in candy vs. 10% in soda.
- **Cocoa Pricing**: Elasticity holds (8% pricing, 4.5% volume decline), but long-term focus on vertical integration (e.g., new chocolate paste plant).
- **SNAP Regulations**: <2% of sales impacted, with natural ingredients in core chocolate products.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Tariff Risk Quantification**: If no exemption, $100M/quarter impact in Q3/Q4. Unmitigated Cocoa tariffs could narrow 2026 earnings path.
- **Salty Snacks Strategy**: Private label reduction (redirecting to branded products) creates mid-single-digit headwind, but core salty growth offsets.
- **International Performance**: Brazil Easter strength (+double digits), India & Mexico share gains, normalized competition in key markets.
- **Buyback Appetite**: Share repurchases remain part of capital allocation, but priority on M&A and operational reinvestment in 2025.
- **C-Store Trends**: April green shoots in instant consumables, car travel recovery potential, but cautious on long-term C-Store trends.


The Hershey Company (HSY)-1 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **2025 Growth Strategy**: Balanced top/bottom line growth via pricing, cost control, and innovation, with 2026 EPS recovery on horizon.
- **Elasticity Management**: -1% elasticity baked into guidance, but Q4 results suggest potential upside.
- **Cocoa Resilience**: Diversified supply chain and hedging strategies mitigate cocoa price volatility.
- **Innovation Drives Growth**: Sweets and Seasons products (e.g., Shaq-a-licious Gummies, Easter) leading category expansion.
- **Leadership Transition**: Seamless CEO succession planned, with focus on long-term strategy continuity.

**【CEO Strategic Overview】**
- Emphasized balanced growth in 2026 through pricing, productivity, and cost control, despite elevated cocoa costs.
- Highlighted cautious pricing approach in consumables due to elasticity concerns, with better-than-expected elasticity results in Q4.
- Discussed diversification of cocoa supply sources and long-term resilience strategies in West Africa.
- Noted no material impact from GLP-1 drugs on consumption, with focus on healthier product innovation (e.g., 0-sugar and protein lines).
- Seasonal products (Easter, Halloween) expected to drive share gains, with 2025 Easter benefiting from late timing.

**【CFO Financial Insights】**
- 2025 gross margin pressure split: <500bps in H1, higher in H2 due to hedging roll-over.
- 2025 EPS guidance reflects -1% elasticity assumption, but upside possible if elasticities improve.
- 2026 EPS growth achievable even at current cocoa prices via aggressive cost-saving and pricing strategies.
- $40M Q4 inventory valuation benefit from new ERP system, with minimal impact on 2025 outlook.

**【Key Q&A Themes】**
- **Cocoa Market Strategy**: Utilizing both exchange and off-exchange mechanisms to capitalize on origin price differentials; hedging decisions will be data-driven.
- **International Competition**: Brazil and Mexico seeing intense promotions, offset by innovation (e.g., Sour Strips, JR Freeze-Dried).
- **Channel Dynamics**: Convenience store channel remains pressured, but Sweets portfolio gains incremental distribution.
- **Succession Planning**: Active CEO transition process underway, with focus on leader with industry expertise and people focus.


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