What is the market's earnings forecast for Gray Media next quarter?

What were the key takeaways from Gray Media's earnings call?

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What does Gray Media do and what are its main business segments?

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What were the key takeaways from Gray Media’s earnings call?

- **Revenue & Profit Growth**: Q3 revenue of $749M exceeded guidance, with EBITDA of $162M and $8M political ad revenue beat. Operating expenses reduced by $17M below target.
- **M&A Expansion**: Acquired 6 new markets and created 11 duopolies, enhancing local news dominance. Atlanta station WANF added 25.5 hours of programming with strong advertiser response.
- **Balance Sheet Strength**: Total leverage improved to 5.7x, liquidity at $900M, and $0.08 dividend declared. CapEx reduced by $15M to $70-75M.
- **Streaming & Digital Innovation**: Launched Google Cloud-powered streaming platform in Q1 2026, renewing FOX affiliations and expanding sports portfolio.
- **Assembly Atlanta Potential**: $650M invested, with $25M reimbursement expected. Joint ventures and leases could generate significant ROI within 2 years.
- **2026 Outlook**: Core ad revenue growth expected, driven by sports renewals and political spending rebound post-midterm elections.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $749 million, at the high end of guidance. Operating expenses were $592 million, $17 million below the low end of guidance, driven by cost containment across stations.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $162 million, with political advertising revenue exceeding expectations at $8 million.
- Completed 6 new market M&A deals, creating 11 Big Four duopolies to strengthen local news presence. Board declared a $0.08 quarterly dividend.
- Launched a Google Cloud-powered streaming platform in January 2026 and renewed 27 FOX affiliations for 2 additional years.
- WANF (Atlanta station) added 25.5 hours of local programming, with strong advertiser reception and ratings growth.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- GAAP net loss was $23 million, with strong cash flow and $900 million in liquidity. Total leverage ratio improved to 5.7x post-M&A transactions.
- Station-level operating expenses decreased $8 million YoY, reflecting company-wide cost management.
- Retransmission consent revenue declined 6% YoY, partially offset by network affiliation fee reductions. Full-year CapEx reduced by $15 million to $70-75 million.
- Assembly Atlanta project net investment reached $650 million, with potential for significant ROI through joint ventures and lease agreements.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **2026 Outlook**: Management expressed optimism for core ad revenue growth, citing renewed sports contracts (Hawks, Braves) and improved advertiser confidence post-political cycle.
- **Assembly Atlanta**: $25 million reimbursement expected in Q4, with plans to monetize through production deals and joint ventures. Potential to become largest cash flow generator within 24 months.
- **M&A Strategy**: Focused on sub-$200 million deals to deleverage and enhance portfolio. No immediate plans for large-scale transactions, but open to opportunities that align with local news preservation goals.
- **Political Spending**: Q4 2025 political ad revenue guided at $7-8 million, with expectations of significant increase in 2026 due to Democratic fundraising momentum post-midterm elections.
- **YouTube TV Dispute**: Frustration over lack of control in MVPD negotiations, but hope for resolution to avoid long-term affiliate disputes.


Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **M&A bonanza:** 4 deals in 6 weeks added 6 markets, 11 duopolies, and $253 million in consideration. All transactions immediately cash flow accretive.
- **Debt management:** $560 million debt reduction since Q1 2024. First lien leverage: 2.99x; total leverage: 5.6x. Post-refinancing first lien leverage: 2.6x.
- **Atlanta station pivot:** CBS affiliation transition to independent station reduces retransmission fees but increases ad revenue. 2025 Atlanta upfront event generated $15 million in ad sales.
- **Leverage path:** M&A deals alone would reduce leverage by 0.25x. Management targeting <4x leverage by 2028.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- Q2 2025 revenue: $772 million (-7% YoY, +1% above original guidance high). Adjusted EBITDA: $169 million (-25% YoY). Net loss: $56 million vs. $22 million net income in Q2 2024.
- Completed 4 M&A transactions in 6 weeks, adding 6 new markets and 11 duopolies. Total M&A consideration: $253 million (including $171 million Allen Media deal). All transactions immediately cash flow accretive.
- Debt reduction: $22 million in Q2, total $560 million since Q1 2024. First lien leverage: 2.99x; total leverage: 5.6x.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- Scripps 5-market no-cash swap: gains FOX affiliate in Lansing, MI and enters Lafayette, LA market. Sold 3 Colorado stations. New stations ranked #1 in 2024 local news.
- Block Communications acquisition: $80 million for 3 stations in Louisville, KY; Springfield, IL; and Lima, OH. Allen Media deal: $171 million for 10 markets, including 3 new (Columbus, MS; Terre Haute, IN; West Lafayette, IN).
- CBS affiliation transition in Atlanta: WANF becomes independent station, reducing retransmission fees but increasing ad revenue. 2024 Atlanta station revenue: $100 million+; 2025 upfront event generated $15 million in ad sales.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q2 operating expenses flat YoY. $900 million 9.625% second lien notes issued in July, extending maturities to 2032. $775 million first lien notes refinanced at 7.25%, extending maturities to 2033.
- Post-M&A leverage improvement: 0.25x reduction if all deals close. First lien leverage estimate post-refinancing: 2.6x.
- Tax guidance updated: no material payments expected for remainder of 2025 due to interest deductibility changes.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **M&A Strategy:** Focus on integrating 17 new markets rather than pursuing additional deals. Transactions selected for strategic fit and immediate cash flow accretion.
- **Leverage Impact:** M&A deals alone would reduce leverage by 0.25x. Combined with debt repayments, leverage path to <4x by 2028.
- **Atlanta Station Transition:** WANF retransmission fees will decrease but local ad revenue will offset. 2026 political cycle expected to drive incremental revenue.
- **Balance Sheet:** $750 million revolver increased to $750 million. No material debt maturities until 2028. Debt reduction prioritized over dividend growth.

Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Resilience**: Q1 2025 revenue beat high-end guidance despite 5% YoY decline, driven by cost control and political ad outperformance. 
- **Political Ad Surge**: Q1 political revenue ($13M) exceeded guidance by 550%, with early 2026 cycle spending already materializing. 
- **Debt Reduction Momentum**: $17M debt repayment in Q1, bringing total leverage to 5.48x, with $240M remaining under buyback authorization. 
- **Assembly Studios Growth**: 75-80% studio occupancy, 8,000+ crew on lot, and new productions like CBS' *Beyond the Gates*. 
- **Cost Efficiency**: Achieved $60M annualized cost savings, with Q1 broadcasting expenses down YoY for the first time since 2020.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Performance**: Q1 2025 revenue was $782 million, down 5% YoY but 1% above high-end guidance. Adjusted EBITDA was $160 million (-19% YoY) due to one-time gains in Q1 2024 (BMI sale, Super Bowl, leap year). 
- **Cost Control**: Operating expenses were 1% below low-end guidance, marking the first time since COVID that Q1 broadcasting expenses declined YoY. 
- **Debt Reduction**: Reduced outstanding debt by $17 million, lowering leverage to 2.92x (secured) and 5.48x (total). 
- **Political Advertising**: Q1 political revenue was $13 million vs. $2-4 million guidance, driven by Wisconsin Supreme Court race and early 2026 cycle spending. 
- **Sports Expansion**: 80% of stations now carry local sports, up from 0% two years ago. 
- **Assembly Studios Growth**: 8,000+ crew on lot, 75-80% studio occupancy, and new productions like CBS' *Beyond the Gates*.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Liquidity**: Increased AR securitization to $400 million (from $300M) and revolver to $700 million (from $680M), providing $1.1 billion liquidity. 
- **Cost Savings**: Achieved $60 million annualized cost savings from Q4 2024 initiatives, with benefits accelerating in 2025. 
- **Debt Repurchases**: $240 million remaining under $250 million buyback authorization, targeting 2025 maturities. 
- **Affiliate Fees**: Network affiliation fees remained below prior-year levels for the 5th consecutive quarter. 
- **Free Cash Flow**: Q1 is seasonally low, but debt reduction continued despite headwinds.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Regulatory Environment**: Optimistic about potential duopoly swaps and reduced regulatory barriers, with early 2026 cycle political ad spending already visible. 
- **Affiliate Negotiations**: Focused on renewing network agreements while exploring value from DTC platforms. 
- **Assembly Studios ROI**: 75-80% studio occupancy, with Phase 2 developments (e.g., World Cup viewing parties) expected to contribute in 2026. 
- **Expense Management**: Q2 guidance for below-inflation expense growth, with no plans for additional cost-cutting initiatives beyond $60M savings. 
- **M&A Strategy**: Open to equity-based transactions but prioritizing debt reduction and liquidity flexibility.

Gray Media, Inc. (GTN) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Revenue Growth**: Q4 2024 revenue up 21% YoY to $1 billion, driven by $250 million in political ad revenue. Q1 2025 core ad revenue expected to decline 7-8% YoY due to macroeconomic headwinds.
- **Debt deleveraging**: Reduced total debt by $520 million in 2024, with $60 million in cost savings initiatives fully implemented by Q2 2025. 2026 political cycle cash flow to support $528 million 2027 bond maturity.
- **Sports Expansion Success**: 80+ markets with local sports coverage by Q1 2025, including Atlanta Braves and Memphis Grizzlies deals. Sports rights driving 30%+ increase in studio production bookings.
- **Assembly Atlanta Payoff**: $500 million investment generating immediate returns, with Q1 2025 production revenue exceeding expectations. Phase 2 development to be funded via partnerships, targeting 2025 monetization.
- **Regulatory Progress**: First-ever year-over-year decline in network affiliation fees (ABC deal). Advocating for FCC reforms to address MVPD subscriber erosion and tech giant competition.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q4 2024 revenue reached $1 billion, up 21% YoY, driven by political advertising (Q4 political ad revenue: $250 million). Core ad revenue in Q1 2025 is expected to decline 7-8% YoY due to economic uncertainty and Super Bowl impact.
- **Debt Reduction**: Total debt reduced by $520 million in 2024, ending the year at 2.97x first lien leverage. $60 million in cost savings initiatives are expected to fully materialize by Q2 2025.
- **Operational Highlights**: Expanded local sports coverage to 80+ markets, including Atlanta Braves and Memphis Grizzlies deals. Assembly Studios in Atlanta produced NBC's *Gross Pointe Kingdom* and CBS' *Beyond The Gates*.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Performance**: Q4 2024 GAAP net income: $156 million (vs. $22 million loss in Q4 2023). Adjusted EBITDA: $402 million (+86% YoY). Q4 2024 CapEx: $96 million, with expectations for lower 2025 spend.
- **Liquidity**: $135 million cash + $680 million undrawn revolver as of Q4 2024. 2026 political cycle cash flow expected to support $528 million 2027 bond maturity.
- **Cost Management**: $46 million in debt discounts captured in 2024. Board authorized $250 million for open market repurchases.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Core Ad Recovery**: Q1 2025 core ad revenue pacing flat to 2024 (excluding Super Bowl/Leap Day), with improvement in March. Auto advertising hesitancy linked to tariffs and interest rates.
- **Sports Expansion**: 80+ markets with local sports by Q1 2025, including MLB, NBA, and MLS partnerships. Sports rights expected to drive halo effect for news and digital ad sales.
- **Assembly Atlanta**: $500 million investment in studio and mixed-use campus. Phase 2 development to be funded via partnerships, with first-year production revenue already exceeding expectations.
- **Regulatory Outlook**: Advocating for FCC reforms to level playing field with tech giants. ABC affiliation deal marked first-ever year-over-year decline in network fees, signaling potential for broader affiliate fee reductions.


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