What is the market's earnings forecast for Fair Isaac next quarter?

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What guidance did Fair Isaac's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Fair Isaac year over year?

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What were the key takeaways from Fair Isaac’s earnings call?

Did Fair Isaac beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

- **Revenue Growth**: Q4 2025 revenue up 14% YoY to $516M, FY25 total $1.991B (+16% YoY). Scores segment drove 27% FY25 growth. 
- **AI Innovation Lead**: FICO FFM delivers 35%+ fraud detection improvement. FICO 10T adoption by 40+ lenders ($316B+ originations). 
- **Mortgage Cost Revolution**: Direct license program offers 50% cost reduction via $4.95/per score model. 
- **Financial Strength**: FY25 free cash flow $739M (+22% YoY). FY26 guidance: revenue +18%, non-GAAP EPS +28%. 
- **Strategic Momentum**: Platform ARR +16% YoY, ACV bookings highest in 6 years. Dollar-based NRR 102%.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q4 2025 revenue of $516 million (+14% YoY), FY25 total of $1.991 billion (+16% YoY). Software segment revenue flat YoY, driven by 17% platform growth and 7% decline in legacy products. Scores segment up 25% Q4, FY25 total $1.169 billion (+27% YoY). 
- **Product Innovations**: Launched FICO Focused Foundation Model (FFM) for financial services, delivering 35%+ lift in fraud detection accuracy vs. conventional AI. Announced FICO 10T adoption by 40+ lenders ($316B+ annual originations). 
- **Mortgage Strategy**: Launched direct license program with Xactus, offering $4.95/per score performance model (50% cost reduction) and $10/per score legacy model. 
- **Market Positioning**: FICO scores used by 90% of U.S. lenders, outperforming VantageScore 4 in predictive accuracy. FICO 10T identified 18% more defaulters in critical mortgage decile vs. classic FICO. 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Highlights**: GAAP net income $155M (+14% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $7.74 (+18% YoY). FY25 free cash flow $739M (+22% YoY). 
- **Software Metrics**: Total ARR $747M (+4% YoY), platform ARR $263M (+16% YoY). Dollar-based NRR 102%, ACV bookings $32.7M Q4 (highest quarterly level). 
- **FY26 Guidance**: Revenue $2.35B (+18%), GAAP EPS $33.47 (+26%), non-GAAP EPS $38.17 (+28%).保守假设宏观环境无改善，不考虑市场份额流失。 
- **Expense Management**: Operating expenses $1.066B FY25 (+8% YoY). Non-GAAP margin 55% FY25 (vs. 52% FY24). 

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **FHFA Engagement**: CEO Will Lansing noted constructive dialogue with FHFA on increasing competition via direct distribution. FICO 10T approval with GSEs expected but timing TBD. 
- **Pricing Model Feedback**: Resellers prefer performance model for cost savings, but 90%+ mortgage volume resellers engaged in direct program. Lenders testing FICO 10T vs. VantageScore 4 simultaneously. 
- **ARR Conversion**: CFO Steve Weber expects Q1 2026 ARR acceleration from FY25 ACV bookings ($102M annualized). 
- **Market Share Confidence**: Despite VantageScore 4 claims of broader coverage, FICO scores remain most predictive through economic cycles. FICO 10T adoption in nonconforming market validates long-term strategy.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 up 20% YoY to $536M, driven by 34% Scores segment growth and 4% Software ARR expansion. 
- **Innovation Leadership**: Launched FICO Score 10 T BNPL and Mortgage Simulator, with FICO 10 T adoption covering $313B in mortgage originations. 
- **Financial Strength**: Record $276M free cash flow, $0.5B share buybacks, and 37% non-GAAP EPS growth to $8.57. 
- **Market Dominance**: >95% market share in credit card, auto, and personal loans; FICO 10 T outperforms VantageScore 4.0. 
- **Strategic Focus**: Platform ARR growth (18% YoY) and 103% net retention rate highlight software momentum.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 revenue of $536 million, up 20% YoY, driven by Scores segment growth (34% YoY) and Software ARR expansion (4% YoY). 
- Scores segment highlights: 
  - FICO Score 10 T BNPL launched, integrating Buy Now, Pay Later data into credit scoring. 
  - FICO Score Mortgage Simulator adoption growing with hundreds of lenders and thousands of orders. 
  - FICO Platform ARR reached $254 million (18% YoY growth). 
- Software segment: Platform land-and-expand strategy yields 103% net retention rate. 
- Record free cash flow of $276 million (34% YoY increase) and $0.5 billion in share buybacks, largest quarterly repurchase in company history. 
- Raised FY25 guidance to $1.98 billion revenue, $29.15 non-GAAP EPS. 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- GAAP net income: $182 million (44% YoY), non-GAAP net income: $211 million (35% YoY). 
- Non-GAAP EPS: $8.57 (37% YoY), exceeding expectations. 
- Operating expenses: $274 million (8% QoQ increase due to FICO World event and headcount). 
- Free cash flow: $276 million (34% YoY), trailing 12-month total $748 million. 
- Debt: $2.78 billion (5.25% weighted average rate), 100% fixed-rate. 
- Cash and investments: $240 million. 

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **FICO 10 T Adoption**: 30+ lenders using FICO 10 T for underwriting, loan production, and servicing; adoption represents $313B in mortgage originations. 
- **VantageScore Competition**: FICO maintains >95% market share in credit card, auto, and personal loan scores; FICO 10 T outperforms VantageScore 4.0 in FHFA analysis. 
- **FHFA Lender Choice Rule**: Industry concerns over "race to the bottom" in credit risk; FICO 10 T's superior predictiveness expected to limit share shift. 
- **Software Growth**: Platform ARR growth driven by new use cases (e.g., fraud detection) and expanded customer usage. 
- **Capital Allocation**: Share buybacks remain top priority; FY25 free cash flow expected to drive continued repurchases.

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue up 15% YoY to $499 million, driven by 25% Scores segment growth and 17% Platform ARR expansion.
- **Profitability**: Non-GAAP EPS of $7.81 (+27% YoY), with operating margin improving 450 bps to 58%.
- **Software Momentum**: Platform NRR of 110% vs. 96% for non-platform, despite macro-driven CCS usage decline.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: FICO Score 10 T adoption covers $284B in mortgages, Kenya-specific score launch, and dacadoo partnership for AI-powered insurance solutions.
- **Cash Flow & Capital Return**: $677M trailing free cash flow, $193M in share buybacks, and 51% fixed-rate debt cushioning against interest rate volatility.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q2 2025 revenue reached $499 million, up 15% YoY, driven by ($297 million) and 2% growth in Software segment ($202 25% growth in Scores segment million). Mortgage originations in Scores grew 48% YoY, accounting for 44% of total Scores revenue.
- Software ARR was $715 million (+3% YoY), with Platform ARR at was  $235 million (+17% YoY). Platform NRR110%, while non-platform NRR was 96%.
- Key initiatives include FICO Score 10 T adoption (covering $284 billion in annualized mortgage originations), partnerships with Fujitsu and dacadoo, and the Kenya-specific FICO score launch.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- GAAP net income: $163 million (+25% YoY); Non-GAAP EPS: $7.81 (+27% YoY). Free cash flow: $65 million (+6% YoY), with trailing 12-month free cash flow at $677 million (+45% YoY).
- Operating expenses: $253 million (-3% QoQ), with non-GAAP operating margin at 58% (+450 bps YoY). Share buybacks: 112,000 shares ($1.849M) returned to shareholders.
- Debt: $2.53 billion (51% fixed-rate); effective tax rate: 23.7% for Q2, with full-year guidance of 22%.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Revenue Drivers**: Mortgage originations growth (48% YoY) offset slower auto and credit card origination revenues. Pricing increases (e.g., auto) are being feathered into results.
- **Software Challenges**: Non-platform CCS usage declined due to macroeconomic conservatism, though platform ARR growth remained Confidence**:. to increase.
- **Guidance Despite macro uncertainty, management reiterates FY2 Q3 professional services revenue expected strong5 guidance, citing healthy pipeline and strategic importance of FICO platform to customers.
- **FICO World Event**: Expected to boost sales pipeline through customer-driven showcases of FICO platform capabilities, with updates on FICO Growth**: Q2 revenue Score 11 and AI innovations.

Fair Isaac (FICO)-29 Apr 25-2025 Q2 Earnings call transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: 15% YoY driven by 30% B2B scores growth (mortgage originations) and 3% B2C expansion.
- **FICO 10 T Momentum**: $261B+ mortgage originations adopt FICO 10 T, despite GSE delay.
- **Software Strength**: Platform ARR +20% YoY, NRR 105%, with H2 acceleration expected.
- **Cash Flow Excellence**: $673M LTM free cash flow, $126M buybacks in Q1/Jan.
- **Strategic Focus**: Integrating BNPL data to improve financial inclusion; FICO World event to showcase innovation.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q1 2025 revenue reached $440 million, up 15% YoY, driven by 30% growth in B2B scores (mortgage originations) and 3% growth in B2C scores.
- FICO Score 10 T adoption expanded to $261 billion in annualized mortgage originations, with GSE implementation delayed by FHFA.
- Software ARR grew 6% to $729 million, with platform ARR up 20% and NRR at 105%.
- Free cash flow of $187 million (Q1) and $673 million (LTM) reflects strong cash generation.
- FICO World event in Q3 will drive engagement with clients and partners.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- GAAP net income: $153 million (26% YoY), Non-GAAP EPS: $5.79 (20% YoY).
- Scores segment revenue: $236 million (23% YoY), Software segment: $204 million (8% YoY, excluding FX).
- Platform ARR growth of 20% offset by 3% FX impact; non-platform ARR grew 1%.
- Operating expenses: $260 million (1.5% QoQ increase), with non-GAAP margin at 50%.
- Free cash flow utilization includes $126 million in share buybacks (Q1 + Jan).

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
1. **FHFA & GSE Impact**: FHFA delayed FICO Score 10 T implementation, but FICO remains the industry standard for risk assessment.
2. **Software ARR Growth**: Platform ARR expected to accelerate in H2, driven by strong bookings pipeline and FX recovery.
3. **Mortgage Volume Sensitivity**: Guidance assumes conservative rate environment; 110% YoY mortgage originations growth in Q1 reflects rate stability.
4. **Capital Allocation**: Share buybacks remain attractive, with $2.42 billion debt at 5% WACC.
5. **Innovation**: Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) data integration study shows potential to enhance credit scoring accuracy for underserved consumers.

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