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What were the key takeaways from Eqt's earnings call?

- **Record Q3 Performance**: $484M free cash flow, 12-month $2.3B at $3.25 gas, driven by operational excellence and Olympus integration.
- **MVP Boost Success**: 20% upsized to 600,000 Dth/d, 100% utility-backed, 3x EBITDA build multiple.
- **LNG Growth**: 10%+ production allocated to 2030+ SPAs, post-2029 oversupply strategy.
- **Winter Risk Premium**: Coldest in a decade, potential 10%+ Appalachian price rally.
- **Dividend Growth**: 5% increase to $0.66/annualized, supported by $100M tax savings.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 2025 free cash flow attributable to EQT: $484 million (net of $21 million one-time Olympus costs), cumulative 12-month free cash flow: $2.3 billion at $3.25/MMBtu gas prices.
- Production near high end of guidance despite curtailments; record well productivity and midstream efficiency drove $0.12 corporate differential improvement vs. midpoint guidance.
- Olympus acquisition: 34-day operational integration, $2M/well cost savings in deep Utica, and 1 Bcf/d incremental takeaway capacity via MVP Boost expansion.
- MVP Boost expansion: 20% upsized to 600,000 Dth/d, 100% contracted with 20-year utility agreements, 3x EBITDA build multiple.
- Appalachia pricing outlook: M2 Basis Futures tightening $0.20+ for 2029-2030, driven by in-basin power demand and midstream expansion delays.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 2025 net debt: $8 billion (below $5 billion target), with $19 billion cumulative free cash flow forecast over 5 years at current strip prices.
- Base dividend increased 5% to $0.66/annualized, supported by $100M tax savings from AMT exemption.
- LNG strategy: 10%+ production allocated to 2030+ SPAs with Sempra, NextDecade, and Commonwealth LNG, focusing on post-2029 oversupply period.
- 2026 outlook: flat production vs. 2025 exit rate, $2B+ maintenance CapEx, and disciplined growth capital allocation to midstream projects.
- Natural gas macro: 4 Bcf/d incremental LNG demand in 2025, 2.5-3 Bcf/d from Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage 3 by end-2026, and cold winter risk premium.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- MVP Boost success: 100% utility-backed capacity vs. 60% producer-backed MVP original, signaling shift to direct-to-customer model.
- LNG strategy: tolling agreements preferred for Texas Coast (Permian supply), offtake for Louisiana (shorter Haynesville inventory).
- Data center growth: Homer City and Shippingport projects operational, exploring Ohio opportunities via lateral pipeline extensions.
- Winter 2025-26 outlook: coldest in over a decade, potential 10%+ Appalachian price rally if cold weather persists.
- Capital allocation: buybacks prioritized after $5B debt target, with $100M+ annual LNG marketing EBITDA contribution.
- Risk management: curtailments replacing basis hedges, 15-20 Bcfe Q4 strategic shut-ins to optimize price realization.

EQT Corporation (EQT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Natural Gas, Oil and Natural Gas Liquids

(Loss) Gain on Derivatives Not Designated As Hedges

Net Marketing Services and Other

EQT

EQT fundamentals

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