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- **Q3 Financial Strength**: EBITDA up 8% YoY to BRL 1.3B, driven by disciplined CapEx (BRL 2.6B YTD) and cost reductions (PMSO -4.1%).
- **Strategic Agility**: Divestments (BRL 78M solar, Mashigua Sue HPP) reduce leverage to 2.8x, enabling Novo Mercado migration by year-end.
- **Trading Excellence**: Mitigated 35% curtailment via smart trading, capturing +50% PLD rise to BRL 250/MWh.
- **Growth Catalysts**: 2026 tariff review targeting BRL 18B, battery auction participation, and hydroelectric storage innovation.
- **Regulatory Focus**: Monitoring MP1304 curtailment reimbursement and renewable oversupply risks, with emphasis on price signaling for long-term sector health.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q3 2025 Financial Highlights**: Recurring EBITDA of BRL 1.3 billion (+8% YoY), recurring net income of BRL 375 million. CapEx of BRL 981 million in Q3, totaling BRL 2.6 billion YTD, driven by distribution and generation investments.
- **Strategic Moves**: Divestment of 22 MW solar plants (BRL 78M) and Mashigua Sue HPP, reducing leverage to 2.8x net debt/EBITDA. Migration to Novo Mercado expected to complete by end-2025, with potential dividend announcement post-migration.
- **Operational Resilience**: Sales of 5 GW, build market growth of 1.7% YoY. Mitigated 35% curtailment in generation via trading strategy, benefiting from +50% PLD spot market rise.
- **Culture & Vision**: Launch of COPEL 2035 strategy and internal culture transformation, emphasizing agility and value creation. Invitation to COPEL Day (Nov 19) for detailed strategy update.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Segment Performance**: COPEL Genco EBITDA +11% YoY, COPEL DISCO EBITDA +7.2% YoY (driven by 1.7% build market growth). Trading segment EBITDA down BRL 7.3M due to legacy contracts, offset by 96.2% growth in 2026-2030 sales volumes.
- **Cost Efficiency**: PMSO expenses down 4.1% YoY (BRL 718.7M), with 18.4% reduction in personnel costs via severance programs. Net debt BRL 16.6 billion, CDI-equivalent cost at 88.7%, reflecting disciplined funding.
- **Financial Health**: Recurring net income BRL 374.8M (-36.5% YoY) due to higher financial costs and one-time 2024 bonus payment. Optimal capital structure maintained with 3x net debt/EBITDA (pre-Mashigua Sue sale: 2.8x).

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Novo Mercado & Dividends**: Migration completion by end-2025; dividend announcement expected post-migration, aligned with 75% payout policy. Taxation of dividends (10% for individuals) under study.
- **Cost Efficiency**: 2026 cost reduction initiatives include shared services and operational excellence, targeting 2022-2026 cumulative savings. No long-term reliance on asset sales for value creation.
- **Trading Strategy**: Hydro modulation and strategic hedging offset 35% curtailment, with focus on capturing high spot prices (>BRL 250/MWh). 2026 strategy includes uncontracted energy sales for price flexibility.
- **Tariff Review & Auctions**: 2026 tariff review target ~BRL 18 billion, supported by disciplined CapEx execution. Battery auction participation contingent on competitiveness; focus on hydroelectric storage as alternative.
- **Regulatory Challenges**: MP1304 curtailment reimbursement discussions ongoing; potential impact on distributed generation subsidies. Monitoring government policy on renewable oversupply and curtailment costs.

Companhia Paranaense de Energia - COPEL (ELP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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ELPC

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