What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Ecopetrol year over year?

What is Ecopetrol's gross profit margin?

What guidance did Ecopetrol's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is Ecopetrol's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What were the key takeaways from Ecopetrol’s earnings call?

What does Ecopetrol do and what are its main business segments?

Did Ecopetrol beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What were the key takeaways from Ecopetrol's earnings call?

- **Operational Resilience**: Q3 2025 production of 751,000 BPD, near annual guidance, driven by Cano Sur, CPO-09, and Permian. Refining rebounded to 413,000 BPD post-maintenance.
- **Financial Strength**: EBITDA of COP 12.3 trillion (41% margin), net income of COP 2.6 trillion. Efficiency savings of COP 4.1 trillion (40% above target).
- **Sustainability Momentum**: 379,000 tons of GHG emissions reduced; 234 MW renewable capacity added. Asphalt export initiative projects $1-2 million annual benefits.
- **Capital Discipline**: Year-to-date CapEx of $4.2 billion (72% of target). 2026 focus on cost optimization and liquidity preservation amid low oil prices.
- **Risk Mitigation**: FX hedging covers 11-15% of dollar revenues. Contingency plans address potential OFAC sanctions, including COP 700 billion credit line.
- **Permian Strategy**: No sale intention; Board-led portfolio analysis prioritizes value creation.
- **Dividend Policy**: 2026 payout likely 40-60% of distributable profit, midpoint-aligned, despite lower net income.


**【CEO Summary】**
- Ecopetrol achieved robust operational performance across all segments, with average production of 751,000 barrels per day (BPD) in Q3 2025, near the upper end of the annual guidance range. Key drivers included contributions from Cano Sur, CPO-09, and the Permian Basin, alongside mitigation efforts in Cano Limón.
- Exploration exceeded expectations with 10 wells drilled and 3 in progress, reinforcing Colombia's natural gas potential. Refining operations rebounded to 413,000 BPD post-maintenance, and transportation throughput reached 1,098,000 BPD.
- Financial highlights included an 11% Q/Q increase in EBITDA to COP 12.3 trillion (41% margin) and net income of COP 2.6 trillion, driven by refining recovery and cost control. Year-to-date capital expenditures (CapEx) reached $4.2 billion, 72% of the annual target.
- Sustainability initiatives reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 379,000 tons and added 234 MW of renewable capacity. The company also launched a multi-modal logistics initiative for asphalt exports, projecting annual benefits of $1-2 million.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 2025 financial results: EBITDA of COP 12.3 trillion (41% margin), net income of COP 2.6 trillion, and cumulative EBITDA of COP 36.7 trillion year-to-date. The Exploration & Production segment contributed 53% of EBITDA, while Transportation & Toll Roads accounted for 42%.
- Efficiency program savings reached COP 4.1 trillion (40% above target), with 77% progress on $500 million in CapEx optimization measures. Lifting costs decreased to $45.5/BPD, down $1.8 year-over-year.
- Liquidity stood at COP 14.1 trillion, supported by operational cash flow and short-term debt management. FX hedging covered 11-15% of dollar-denominated revenues, mitigating exchange rate risk.
- Debt metrics remained healthy: gross debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.4x (1.7x excluding ISA), with Fitch reaffirming the BB+ credit rating.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Permian Asset Sale**: Management reaffirmed no intention to divest Permian, emphasizing rigorous portfolio analysis and Board oversight. Any sale would require Board approval and value creation analysis.
- **Exchange Rate Impact**: Sensitivity analysis shows COP 700 billion/Q impact on net profit. Year-to-date, the weaker peso added COP 1.1 trillion to EBITDA, offsetting 30% of Brent price decline. Hedging strategies mitigate risk.
- **Sirius LNG Project**: Government support includes streamlined approvals and consultations. Ecopetrol expects to begin gas sales in 2030, with 249 million cubic feet/day production.
- **Dividends**: 2026 payout likely within 40-60% of distributable profit, closer to the midpoint, despite lower year-to-date net income.
- **Lifting Costs**: Target to return to $11/BPD through portfolio optimization and efficiency initiatives, including JV partnerships and cost substitution (e.g., naphtha to LPG).
- **Regulatory Risks**: Robust compliance framework and contingency plans address potential OFAC sanctions, including liquidity backstops and financial obligation management.


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