What is the market's earnings forecast for Ducommun next quarter?

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- **Record Q4 Growth**: $215.8 million revenue (9.4% YoY), driven by 13% military and space growth and a $80 million missile program win.
- **Margin Expansion**: Adjusted EBITDA margin of 17.5% (Q4) vs. 13% in 2022, nearing 18% target. Gross margin 27.7% (Q4) vs. 23.5% YoY.
- **2026 Outlook**: Mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth, with H2 acceleration as destocking eases. Defense bookings up 20% YoY in missiles.
- **Capacity & M&A**: 30%+ unused defense capacity; $75 million M&A target still requires deals. Minimal tariff impact due to U.S. manufacturing focus.
- **Risks**: Ongoing commercial aerospace destocking, though improving. Litigation costs settled at $150 million.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- CFO Suman Mookerji outlined forward-looking statements and risks, including market cyclicality, defense spending, supply chain disruptions, and litigation related to the 2020 Guaymas fire. The company settled a $150 million claim, with $7.6 million charged in Q4 2025.

**【CEO Commentary】**
- Q4 2025 revenue reached $215.8 million (9.4% YoY), driven by 13% growth in military and space segments. Record bookings of $915 million for the year with a 1.1x book-to-bill ratio.
- Missiles segment grew 20% YoY, booking $130 million in Q4, including an $80 million MIR program win.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 17.5% (Q4) from 13% in 2022, nearing the 18% Vision 2027 target.
- 2026 outlook: Mid- to high-single-digit revenue growth, with acceleration in H2 as commercial aerospace destocking eases.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q4 GAAP EPS: $0.48 (vs. $0.45 YoY); Adjusted EPS: $1.05 (vs. $0.75 YoY). Full-year 2025 revenue: $825 million (5% YoY), with defense and space up 14%.
- Gross margin: 27.7% (Q4) vs. 23.5% YoY, benefiting from 100bps of favorable mix but still showing structural improvement.
- Operating cash flow: $69.8 million (2025) vs. $34.2 million YoY, despite $103 million in litigation payments.
- New $650 million credit facility lowers cost of capital for M&A.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Destocking Timeline**: Commercial aerospace destocking to persist through H1 2026, with recovery in H2. Q4 2025 commercial aerospace revenue up 1% YoY due to 787 and A320 growth.
- **Defense Capacity**: 30%+ unused capacity in key facilities, with no incremental CapEx needed for missile production ramp.
- **M&A Strategy**: Actively pursuing engineered product acquisitions, with $75 million Vision 2027 M&A contribution target still reliant on deals.
- **Tariffs Impact**: Minimal impact due to U.S. manufacturing focus (85% domestic revenue), military exemptions, and domestic supply chain (95% U.S. suppliers).

Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Record**: Q3 2025 revenue of $212.6 million (+6% YoY), driven by 13% defense growth and 21% missile expansion.
- **Strategic Progress**: 23% of revenue from engineered products, up from 15% in 2022, with 2026 savings of $11-13 million from facility consolidation.
- **Risk Management**: $150 million litigation settlement resolved, with minimal impact on adjusted results.
- **Defense Dominance**: Missile business up 27% YTD, radar franchise expanding with SPY-6 and TPY-2 programs.
- **Commercial Recovery**: 2026 optimism as Boeing increases MAX build rates, offsetting 2025 destocking headwinds.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Record Revenue Growth**: Q3 2025 revenue reached $212.6 million, up 6% YoY, driven by 13% growth in defense business and 21% expansion in missile programs.
- **Defense Momentum**: Military rotorcraft (+17%), rotary-wing (+22%), and missile franchises (+21%) led growth. Apache tail rotor blade production ramped up in Coxsackie, NY.
- **Bookings Strength**: $338 million in new orders (1.6x book-to-bill), raising RPO to $1.03 billion, a new record.
- **Commercial Aerospace Challenges**: 10% Q3 decline due to destocking, but optimism for 2026 as Boeing increases 737 MAX build rates to 42/month.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: 23% of revenue from engineered products, on track for 25%+ by 2027. Facility consolidation savings expected to reach $11-13 million in 2026.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Profitability Metrics**: Gross margin 26.6% (up 40bps YoY), adjusted EBITDA $34.4 million (+$2.5 million YoY). Adjusted EPS $0.99, in line with prior year.
- **Litigation Impact**: $150 million settlement for Guaymas fire (net $95 million cash payment), causing GAAP net loss of $4.30/share but no impact on adjusted results.
- **Liquidity**: $250.7 million available liquidity post-settlement, with revolver capacity fully restored. 2026 leverage expected at 2.3x.
- **Tariffs Mitigation**: <5% of spend from China, minimal impact on margins.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Commercial Aerospace Outlook**: Destocking to persist in 2026, but 787 and MAX programs position DCO for recovery.
- **M&A Strategy**: Liquidity remains strong post-settlement; focused on engineered products and aftermarket acquisitions.
- **Cash Flow Conversion**: Free cash flow to adjusted net income improved to 73% YTD, targeting 100%.
- **Defense Pipeline**: Golden Dome program alignment with radar and missile franchises; SPY-6 radar and Tomahawk production ramping up.

Ducommun Incorporated(DCO)-20251106-2025 Q3 Earnings call transcript

- **Defense Dominance**: 16% YoY growth in defense (missile +39%, radar +46%), with missile backlog up 30% YoY.
- **Record Margins**: Gross margin 26.6% (up 60bps YoY), Adjusted EBITDA 16% of revenue (vs. 15.2% YoY).
- **Q4 Growth**: Low double-digit revenue growth expected, driven by Boeing recovery and Apache rotor blade production.
- **Cash Flow Strength**: $22.4M Q2 operating cash flow, 55% free cash flow conversion YTD.
- **Tariff Resilience**: 95% U.S.-made revenue, <5% exposure to China via Airbus program.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- CFO Suman Mookerji outlined forward-looking statements and risks, including cyclicality of end-use markets, U.S. defense spending levels, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical factors.
- Emphasized reliance on U.S. manufacturing (95% of revenue) and minimal exposure to tariffs (5% of revenue from Mexico under USMCA).

**【CEO Commentary】**
- **Record Revenue Growth**: Q2 revenue of $202.3M, up 2.7% YoY, driven by 16% growth in defense business (missile +39%, radar +46%).
- **Defense Momentum**: Missile backlog up 30% YoY, supporting 18 programs with >$750K annual revenue. Active negotiations for SM3 missile and radar programs.
- **Commercial Aerospace Challenges**: 10% decline in Q2 due to Boeing destocking, but optimistic on 737 MAX build rates (38-42/month) and 787 recovery.
- **Engineered Products Expansion**: 23% of revenue (up from 15% in 2023), targeting 25%+ by 2027. BLR acquisition and organic growth driving progress.
- **2025 Outlook**: Mid-single-digit Q3 growth, low double-digit Q4 growth, with defense and Boeing recovery as key drivers.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Gross Margin**: 26.6% (record level), up 60bps YoY, driven by engineered products and cost savings.
- **Adjusted EBITDA**: $32.4M (16% of revenue), up $2.4M YoY, with 80bps margin expansion.
- **EPS**: GAAP $0.82, Non-GAAP $0.88 (up 6% YoY), benefiting from lower interest rates and debt reduction.
- **Cash Flow**: $22.4M from operations (vs. $3.5M YoY), with free cash flow conversion at 55% YTD.
- **Restructuring Savings**: $11-13M annual run rate expected from Monrovia/Berryville closures, with $0.6M Q2 restructuring charges.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Destocking Visibility**: Boeing/Spirit destocking expected to persist through Q4, but improving bill rates (737 MAX 38-42/month) and Apache rotor blade production ramp-up (Sept 2025) provide optimism.
- **Cash Flow Conversion**: Targeting 100% free cash flow conversion by 2027, with 2024 at 40% and 2025 YTD at 55%.
- **M&A Pipeline**: Active in engineered products, with competitive pipeline but cautious on valuations. Berryville facility sold for $2M, Monrovia sale pending.
- **Space Market**: Opportunistic in space cabling (Joplin facility), but focused on defense/commercial aerospace scale.


Ducommun (DCO)-7 Aug 25-2025 Q2 Earnings call transcript

- **Record Margins**: Q1 gross margin 26.6% (vs. 24.6% YoY), EBITDA margin 15.9% (vs. 14.4% YoY), driven by engineered products (23% of revenue) and restructuring savings.
- **Defense Dominance**: Military & space revenue +15% YoY to $114M, with key programs like AMRAAM, NGJ, and Apache blades driving growth. Defense backlog $620M (+$51M YoY).
- **Commercial Recovery**: Boeing 737 MAX bill rates expected to hit 38/month by Q4, with Spirit AeroSystems ramping to mid-30s. Q2 destocking temporary, H2 revenue growth anticipated.
- **Acquisition Focus**: 2025 M&A pipeline active, targeting engineered products to exceed 25% of revenue by 2027. Recent diligence suggests potential deal closure this year.
- **Tariff Resilience**: <3% revenue exposure to China, 95% U.S.-made products. No material tariff impact expected in 2025.

**【CEO Business Overview】**
- Q1 2025 revenue: $194.1M (+1.7% YoY), driven by 15% growth in military & space segment (e.g., missile programs, electronic warfare systems). 
- Gross margin expanded to 26.6% (vs. 24.6% YoY), fueled by engineered products (23% of total revenue) and restructuring savings.
- 2025 outlook: Mid-single-digit revenue growth, with Q2 flat due to commercial aerospace destocking, and strong H2 recovery from Boeing production ramp-up.
- Defense backlog: $620M (+$51M YoY), with key programs like Apache blades, Tomahawk cables, and AMRAAM coming online.
- Tariff impact minimal: 95% of revenue from U.S. facilities, <3% exposure to China via Airbus supplier.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- Adjusted EBITDA: $31.4M (15.9% of revenue, +150bps YoY), exceeding 2027 Vision target of 18%.
- Operating income: $19.2M (9.9% of revenue, +90bps YoY), driven by margin expansion in both segments.
- Net income: $10.5M ($0.69 EPS) vs. $6.8M ($0.46 EPS) YoY, benefiting from lower interest costs.
- Restructuring savings: $11M-$13M annualized, with full realization in 2026 as Monrovia/Berryville closures complete.
- Cash flow: $0.8M generated in Q1, improving from -$1.6M YoY due to net income growth.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
1. **Commercial Aerospace Recovery**: Boeing 737 MAX bill rates expected to reach 38/month by Q4, with Spirit AeroSystems ramping up to mid-30s. DCO sees Q2 destocking as temporary, with H2 revenue growth.
2. **Defense Growth Momentum**: Apache blades production starting in Q2, TOW missile cases and Tomahawk harnesses ramping up in H2. 2025 defense revenue growth expected to moderate from Q1's 15% but remain strong.
3. **M&A Pipeline**: Actively pursuing engineered product acquisitions (23% of revenue in Q1), targeting 25%+ of revenue by 2027. Recent diligence indicates potential deal closure in 2025.
4. **Free Cash Flow Conversion**: 2024 at 40%, aiming to improve in 2025 with working capital optimization. Long-term goal: 100% conversion of adjusted net income to free cash flow.
5. **Tariff Mitigation**: <5% of suppliers from China, with exemptions under USMCA and military duty-free programs. No material impact expected in 2025.


Ducommun (DCO)-6 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: 2024 revenue up 3.9% to $786M, driven by 8% growth in commercial aerospace (A220, S-92) and 4% in defense. Engineered products now 23% of revenue.
- **Profit Expansion**: Q4 gross margin 23.5% (+180bps YoY), Adjusted EBITDA 13.8% (+180bps). Facility closures to deliver $11-13M annual savings.
- **2025 Outlook**: Mid-single-digit growth, with Q1 destocking headwinds offset by second-half Boeing recovery and defense strength.
- **Strategic Wins**: $40M NATO missile order; A220 program up 40% Q4, S-92 rotorcraft up 50% YoY.


**【CEO Business Overview】**
- **Record 2024 Performance**: Revenue reached $786 million, up 3.9% YoY, with commercial aerospace (+8%) and military (+4%) driving growth. Engineered product revenue rose to 23% of total (vs. 19% in 2023), ahead of Vision 2027 target of 25%+.
- **Key Wins**: $40 million order from Bayern-Chemie for NATO missile systems; A220 program grew 40% Q4, S-92 rotorcraft up 50% YoY. Defense backlog hit $625 million (+$98M YoY).
- **2025 Outlook**: Mid-single-digit revenue growth, with Q1 impacted by destocking, stronger second half as Boeing production ramps up. Gross margin expected to improve with facility closures (Monrovia, Berryville) and Mexico plant ramp-up.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- **Q4 2024 Results**: Revenue $197.3M (+2.6% YoY), GAAP EPS $0.45, Adjusted EPS $0.75 (+7% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA $27.3M (+180bps to 13.8% margin).
- **Margin Expansion**: Gross margin 23.5% (+180bps YoY), driven by engineered products and strategic pricing. Operating margin 8.2% (flat YoY due to one-time costs).
- **Cost Savings**: $11-13M annual savings expected from facility closures, with $2.3M restructuring charges in Q4. Interest expense down 33% YoY due to hedging.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Commercial Aerospace Recovery**: Boeing strike resolved, MAX production rates expected to rise post-Q1. A220 and Airbus programs offset weakness.
- **Defense Resilience**: Diversified portfolio (missile defense, electronic warfare) reduces reliance on any single program. European defense spending (e.g., Germany) creating new opportunities.
- **M&A Pipeline**: Actively pursuing engineered product acquisitions, though lower mid-market deal flow persists.
- **Risk Management**: Proactive supply chain management mitigated labor/supply chain risks; 2025 cash flow expected to improve with production ramp-ups.


Actual											0.67	0.43	0.54	0.8	0.55	0.69	0.78	9.05	0.66	0.34	0.69	0.65	0.42	0.17	0.22	0.34	0.46	0.83	0.99	0.75	0.83	0.88	0.99	1.05
Forecast											0.42	0.2666	0.485	0.7733	0.5867	0.645	0.7233	0.7852	0.5367	0.6567	0.7867	0.73	0.47	0.4133	0.3567	0.3733	0.36	0.5994	0.7387	0.8142	0.7023	0.8225	0.9525	0.9655
Surprise	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	+59.52%	+61.29%	+11.34%	+3.45%	-6.26%	+6.98%	+7.84%	+1052.57%	+22.97%	-48.23%	-12.29%	-10.96%	-10.64%	-58.87%	-38.32%	-8.92%	+27.78%	+38.47%	+34.02%	-7.89%	+18.18%	+6.99%	+3.94%	+8.75%

DCO

DCO fundamentals

DCO Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

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DCO

DCO fundamentals

DCO Q4 2025 Earnings

Earnings Call

DCO Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20251:00 PM on Feb 26, 2026

DCO Earnings Call Summary for Q3/20251:00 PM on Nov 6, 2025

DCO Earnings Call Summary for Q2/20251:00 PM on Aug 7, 2025

DCO Earnings Call Summary for Q1/20251:00 PM on May 6, 2025

DCO Earnings Call Summary for Q4/20241:00 PM on Feb 27, 2025

You can ask Aime