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- **Revenue Surge**: Q3 revenue up 30% QoQ, fueled by renewables and thermal growth. 
- **EBITDA Boost**: 20-25% increase expected from market liberalization, with $70-80 million base case. 
- **Project Pipeline**: 205MWh BESS, San Carlos (+$3-5M EBITDA), and Brigadier Lopez (+$60-65M EBITDA) nearing completion. 
- **Market Resilience**: Term market price stabilizing at $60/MWh despite short-term volatility. 
- **Financial Fortitude**: Net leverage 0.5x, healthy cash reserves, and no asset sales planned. 
- **Growth Catalysts**: New projects and regulatory reforms driving EBITDA expansion. 
- **Risk Management**: Term market price stabilization and hydro auction outcomes key to dividend decisions.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- **Q3 2025 Financial Highlights**: Adjusted EBITDA of $101.1 million (64% QoQ growth, 8% YoY), revenue of $233.9 million (30% QoQ growth) driven by renewables and thermal. 
- **Strategic Acquisitions**: Acquired Cafayate solar farm ($48.5 million) and awarded 205MWh BESS projects with 15-year contracts. 
- **Market Liberalization**: Resolution 400/25 introduces dollar-denominated spot pricing, capacity payments, and fuel cost pass-through, enhancing long-term profitability. 
- **Financial Strength**: Net leverage ratio of 0.5x, $292 million cash, and $159.9 million net debt. 

**【CEO Commentary】**
- **Regulatory Impact**: Anticipates 20-25% EBITDA increase from new market rules, with potential additional gains from 20% direct sales to large users. 
- **Project Contributions**: San Carlos solar farm to add $3-5 million EBITDA annually, Brigadier Lopez combined cycle to contribute $60-65 million annually. 
- **Market Outlook**: Term market price expected to stabilize around $60/MWh, with new projects like small open cycles and battery storage driving growth. 
- **Capital Allocation**: No plans to sell assets; focus on developing awarded projects and maintaining financial flexibility. 

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **EBITDA Growth**: Base case 20-25% increase ($70-80 million) from regulation, with upside from direct sales. 
- **Project Timelines**: San Carlos COD in late Q4 2025, Brigadier Lopez COD by mid-December 2025. 
- **Market Dynamics**: Term market price may dip to $55-57/MWh initially but stabilize due to supply constraints and demand from data centers. 
- **Hydro Auction**: Results expected by mid-December, with potential new capacity additions. 
- **Dividend Policy**: Future distributions contingent on hydro auction outcomes and project performance.

Central Puerto S.A. (CEPU) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Revenue

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CEPU

CEPU fundamentals

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