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- **YPF Case Confidence**: 6.28% court reversal rate and 4.63% judge-specific rate support affirming judgment; Forum non dismissal deemed highly unlikely.
- **Business Growth**: 50% YTD new business growth, 61% Q3 deployments, and 26% IRRs on $3.6B realizations highlight portfolio strength.
- **Financial Health**: $740M cash, 0.9x debt-to-equity ratio, and stable asset management cash flows support prudent capital management.
- **Shareholder Engagement**: Management buys 1.3M shares but eschews buybacks due to cash flow uncertainty; open to industry consolidation opportunities.
- **Litigation Momentum**: 61 realizations YTD and rising trial schedule suggest 2026 acceleration, despite delays.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Discussed the YPF case, emphasizing the court's low reversal rate (6.28% over 10 years) and the statistical likelihood of affirming the judgment. Argued against market concerns over Forum non conveniens dismissal, citing the court's discretion and the impracticality of dismissing after 10 years of litigation.
- Highlighted business performance: definitive commitments up 50% YTD, portfolio up 15% (20% annualized), and deployments up 61% Q3. Noted 4 large case wins ($100M+ potential) and steady IRRs at 26% on $3.6B realizations.
- Addressed share price underperformance and buyback reluctance, citing need to fund growth and avoid excessive leverage. Management bought 1.3M shares in the last year but deemed corporate buybacks imprudent due to unpredictable cash flows.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Principal Finance segment: Fair value increased to $3.9B, driven by new business (deployments up 50% YTD). Duration extensions reduced unrealized gains by $40-50M, but stressed this doesn't reflect case outcomes.
- Asset Management: Cash receipts stable at $17M YTD, with focus on the BOF-C fund. Operating expenses up slightly due to policy planning.
- Capital Structure: $740M cash, $235M debt maturing in 2026. Debt-to-tangible equity ratio at 0.9x, well within covenant limits.

**【CIO Portfolio Update】**
- Portfolio diversification across geographies and case types (arbitration, antitrust, patents). 83% ROIC and 26% IRRs driven by 79% settlement rate, with adjudication gains outweighing losses in size and frequency.
- Emphasized control over new deployments vs. court delays, noting 61 realizations YTD and more trials scheduled for 2026.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **YPF Appeal Timeline**: Briefing expected by Dec 2025, argument and decision likely in 2026.
- **Realization Trends**: Rolling 3-year realizations show momentum, with 2025 total at $310M. Courts clearing pandemic backlogs may accelerate trials but not eliminate delays.
- **Buyback Strategy**: Management remains cautious due to cash flow unpredictability, despite cheap share price. Open to dialogue with shareholders.
- **Industry Consolidation**: Monitoring peers' distress but maintaining disciplined approach to acquisitions.


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