What is the market's earnings forecast for Burford Capital next quarter?

Did Burford Capital beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What factors drove the changes in Burford Capital's revenue and profit?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Burford Capital year over year?

What guidance did Burford Capital's management provide for the next earnings period?

What were the key takeaways from Burford Capital's earnings call?

What is Burford Capital's gross profit margin?

What does Burford Capital do and what are its main business segments?

- **YPF Case Confidence**: 6.28% court reversal rate and 4.63% judge-specific rate support affirming judgment; Forum non dismissal deemed highly unlikely.
- **Business Growth**: 50% YTD new business growth, 61% Q3 deployments, and 26% IRRs on $3.6B realizations highlight portfolio strength.
- **Financial Health**: $740M cash, 0.9x debt-to-equity ratio, and stable asset management cash flows support prudent capital management.
- **Shareholder Engagement**: Management buys 1.3M shares but eschews buybacks due to cash flow uncertainty; open to industry consolidation opportunities.
- **Litigation Momentum**: 61 realizations YTD and rising trial schedule suggest 2026 acceleration, despite delays.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Discussed the YPF case, emphasizing the court's low reversal rate (6.28% over 10 years) and the statistical likelihood of affirming the judgment. Argued against market concerns over Forum non conveniens dismissal, citing the court's discretion and the impracticality of dismissing after 10 years of litigation.
- Highlighted business performance: definitive commitments up 50% YTD, portfolio up 15% (20% annualized), and deployments up 61% Q3. Noted 4 large case wins ($100M+ potential) and steady IRRs at 26% on $3.6B realizations.
- Addressed share price underperformance and buyback reluctance, citing need to fund growth and avoid excessive leverage. Management bought 1.3M shares in the last year but deemed corporate buybacks imprudent due to unpredictable cash flows.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Principal Finance segment: Fair value increased to $3.9B, driven by new business (deployments up 50% YTD). Duration extensions reduced unrealized gains by $40-50M, but stressed this doesn't reflect case outcomes.
- Asset Management: Cash receipts stable at $17M YTD, with focus on the BOF-C fund. Operating expenses up slightly due to policy planning.
- Capital Structure: $740M cash, $235M debt maturing in 2026. Debt-to-tangible equity ratio at 0.9x, well within covenant limits.

**【CIO Portfolio Update】**
- Portfolio diversification across geographies and case types (arbitration, antitrust, patents). 83% ROIC and 26% IRRs driven by 79% settlement rate, with adjudication gains outweighing losses in size and frequency.
- Emphasized control over new deployments vs. court delays, noting 61 realizations YTD and more trials scheduled for 2026.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **YPF Appeal Timeline**: Briefing expected by Dec 2025, argument and decision likely in 2026.
- **Realization Trends**: Rolling 3-year realizations show momentum, with 2025 total at $310M. Courts clearing pandemic backlogs may accelerate trials but not eliminate delays.
- **Buyback Strategy**: Management remains cautious due to cash flow unpredictability, despite cheap share price. Open to dialogue with shareholders.
- **Industry Consolidation**: Monitoring peers' distress but maintaining disciplined approach to acquisitions.


Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q2 Growth**: New business up 71% YoY, net income $120M (400% growth), EPS $0.53. 
- **YPF Momentum**: Court orders Argentina to turnover YPF shares, oral argument set for October. 
- **Financial Strength**: $3.8B portfolio, 7.4% WACC, $440M cash. 
- **Strategic Expansion**: New teams in Korea/Spain, exploring legal tech investments. 
- **Portfolio Performance**: 83% ROIC, 26% IRR, 78% settlements. 


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q2 2025 marked a record quarter with new business commitments up 71% year-over-year, driven by multiparty cases and global demand for litigation finance.
- Net income grew 400% year-over-year to $120 million, with EPS at $0.53 (5x 2024 levels). 
- Successful $500 million debt issuance at favorable pricing, expanding liquidity and cost of capital advantage.
- YPF case progress: oral argument set for October, NY court ordered Argentina to turnover YPF shares (on appeal). 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Total revenue $280 million (vs $168M 2024), with Principal Finance segment at $246M (vs $140M). 
- Portfolio fair value $3.8 billion (43% YPF), with $1.7 billion undrawn commitments. 
- Operating expenses stable at $7.6 million, cash receipts $306 million (vs $245M 2024). 
- Weighted average cost of debt 7.4%, maturity extended to 5.2 years. 

**【CIO Portfolio Update】**
- 83% ROIC, 26% IRR across $3.5 billion lifetime realizations. 
- 78% of deployments settle, 15% adjudicate (260%+ ROIC), 7% losses. 
- Diversified portfolio: 20% antitrust, 21% IP, 18% arbitration. 
- 6+ cases >$10M realized YTD, with $24M outstanding in single IP case. 

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- YPF timeline: Second Circuit stay decision pending, appeal could take months. 
- Regulatory environment: Litigation finance critical to justice systems globally, industry opposition unlikely to impact growth. 
- Expansion: Adding teams in Korea, Spain to capitalize on non-US opportunities. 
- Ecosystem strategy: Exploring law firm equity, legal tech investments. 


Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q1 Cash Flow**: $163M realizations and $548M liquidity enable aggressive new business deployment.
- **Portfolio Diversification Success**: 40% IRR short-term deals offset long-dated litigation, with $511M fair value upside.
- **YPF Litigation Progress**: Argentina's IMF deal ties debt repayment to creditor claims, with Burford's stake in Eaton Park rising 10%.
- **Growth Pathway**: $800M undrawn commitments and U.S. market dominance position for 2030 portfolio doubling.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q1 2025 revenue showed strong growth, with new business commitments tripling year-over-year, driven by a new U.S. claim family and corporate deals.
- Cash generation was robust, with $163 million in realizations, the highest in four quarters, and $548 million in liquidity.
- Emphasized long-term focus on cash and portfolio quality, with a 6.7% discount rate reflecting stable risk assumptions.

**【CIO Portfolio Update】**
- Portfolio diversification across risk profiles, geographies, and durations, with $100 million+ investments in both high-IRR (40%) short-term deals and multi-case litigation families.
- YPF-related litigation progress: Argentina's IMF agreement recognizes debt obligations, and Eaton Park liquidation increased Burford's stake in YPF claims by 10%.
- $511 million fair value uplift (ex-YPF) highlights potential for future gains, with historical returns of ~1.5x deployed capital.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- GAAP revenue of $35 million, up 5x YoY, with $14 million in asset management income (vs. $7 million Q1 2024).
- Operating expenses of $40 million, driven by carry accruals tied to portfolio growth, with $103 million due from pending settlements.
- $123 million debt maturity in August covered by ample liquidity, with no covenant breaches.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- YPF resolution tied to Argentina's IMF compliance, with potential disbursement delays if debt disputes unresolved.
- New business mix: 66% in moderate-risk, short-duration deals vs. 34% in high-IRR litigation, balancing cash flow and growth.
- 2030 portfolio doubling target achievable via disciplined deployment of $800 million undrawn commitments and 85%+ U.S. trading liquidity.

Burford Capital Limited (BUR) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call Transcript

- **Record Cash Generation**: $641 million in realizations (52% YoY), with 7 cases >$20M each and 108% ROIC.
- **Portfolio Strength**: $5B Burford-only portfolio (15% CAGR), 14% loss rate with 32% recovery, and 29% unrealized gains.
- **Financial Discipline**: 43% opex decline, $700M cash receipts, and 0.8x leverage below covenant limits.
- **Strategic Balance**: 2x+ return targeting for new business, balanced with lower-risk monetizations enabling capital recycling.
- **YPF Update**: Ongoing enforcement efforts, no material case developments, oral arguments expected soon.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Highlighted record-breaking performance with $641 million in realizations, up 52% year-over-year, driven by 7 cases exceeding $20 million each.
- Emphasized portfolio diversification across geographies and asset types, with a 15% CAGR over 5 years and $5 billion Burford-only portfolio.
- Noted strong risk-adjusted returns, with 108% ROIC in 2024, surpassing historical averages, and 14% lifetime loss rate with 32% recovery on losses.
- Discussed strategic balance between high-risk, high-reward cases (e.g., international arbitration) and lower-risk monetizations, enabling capital recycling.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Reported GAAP net income of $420 million and non-GAAP EPS of $1.08, with operating expenses down 43% due to reduced LTI compensation tied to YPF fair value changes.
- Highlighted $700 million in cash receipts, ending the year with $500 million in cash and securities, up from $300 million.
- Discussed debt management, with $1.8 billion outstanding and leverage at 0.8x, below covenant limits, and $50 million debt buybacks at 0.8x face value.
- Provided portfolio fair value breakdown: 40% YPF, 31% other assets, and 29% unrealized gains, with a 6.9% discount rate flat year-over-year.

**【CIO Portfolio Performance】**
- Detailed 2024 results: $327 million net realized gains (75% YoY increase), $641 million realizations (52% YoY), and 108% ROIC vs. 82% historical average.
- Showcased targeted realizations approach, with 2024 new business targeting 2x+ returns, compared to 1.7x in 2023.
- Highlighted portfolio resilience, with only $10 million in negative case milestones vs. $100 million+ in positive milestones.
- Discussed YPF case progress, with ongoing enforcement efforts and cross-appeal in U.S. courts, though no material updates.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Unrealized Losses**: CFO clarified Q4 unrealized losses ($166 million) were driven by discount rate volatility (52bp increase) and milestone changes, not portfolio performance.
- **New Business Strategy**: CIO emphasized balance between high-risk cases (e.g., patent/IP) and lower-risk monetizations, with 2024 new business targeting 2x+ returns.
- **Headcount**: CEO noted flat FTEs at ~160, with no immediate plans for significant expansion, focusing on strategic hires.
- **Regulatory Environment**: CEO dismissed U.S. admin risks, citing industry acceptance and focus on disclosure rather than existential threats.
- **YPF Timeline**: CIO indicated oral arguments likely within months, but no timeline for appellate decision.
- **Targeted Realizations**: CIO clarified metric measures risk-adjusted returns, not just deployment size, incentivizing high-impact cases without penalizing longer-duration assets.

BUR

BUR fundamentals

Earnings Call

You can ask Aime