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What were the key takeaways from Ardagh Metal's earnings call?

What guidance did Ardagh Metal's management provide for the next earnings period?

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Did Ardagh Metal beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

- **Q3 EBITDA Beats Guidance**: $208M (6% YoY growth), upgrading full year to $720-735M.
- **Key Risks**: Brazil shipments down 17% in Q3, North America 2026 softer due to contract resets.
- **Sustainability Progress**: Scope 1/2 emissions down 10%, Scope 3 down 14% (25% below 2020 baseline).
- **Liquidity Strong**: $600M+ cash, 2025 free cash flow guidance $150M+.
- **Q4 Optimism**: North America supply chain issues easing, Brazil shipments improving in Q4.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q3 Performance**: Adjusted EBITDA grew 6% YoY to $208 million, driven by shipments in Europe and North America, lower costs, and favorable category mix. Full year EBITDA guidance upgraded to $720-735 million.
- **Europe Segment**: Revenue up 9% ($625M), EBITDA up 4% ($82M). Shipments grew 2% in faster-growing categories (ciders, teas, wines), offsetting beer weakness. Full year shipment growth expected at low single digits.
- **Americas Segment**: Revenue up 8% ($803M), EBITDA up 8% ($126M). North America shipments +1% (industry in line), Brazil down 17% due to weak demand. Full year North America shipments expected mid-single-digit growth.
- **Sustainability**: Scope 1/2 emissions down 10%, Scope 3 down 14% (25% below 2020 baseline). 2026 outlook: Europe market growth 3-4%, Brazil recovery, North America softer due to contract resets.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Liquidity**: $600M+ at quarter-end, net leverage 5.2x (down 0.4x YoY). Expect year-end leverage ~5x.
- **Free Cash Flow**: Guidance for 2025 at least $150M, driven by $135M maintenance CapEx, $100M lease repayments, $200M interest. 2026 outlook: $65M growth CapEx, $50M exceptional outflows.
- **Dividend**: Quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share declared.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Aluminum Pricing**: No significant demand elasticity in 2025 due to hedging, but 2026 risks from higher realized costs. North America 2026 industry growth 1-2%, Brazil recovery expected.
- **Supply Chain**: Q3 disruptions (metal supply, plant issues) limited growth by 1-2 points. Q4 cautiously optimistic with new mill ramping up.
- **Europe Growth**: Despite beer weakness, 3-4% market growth expected in 2026, driven by can outperformance in non-beer categories.
- **Brazil Recovery**: Q4 shipments expected to improve, full year 2025 flat vs. prior year, 2026 industry growth resuming.
- **2026 Outlook**: North America softer due to footprint changes, Europe in line with market, Brazil recovery. EBITDA growth expected over 2025.

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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