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- **Q3 EBITDA Beats Guidance**: $208M (6% YoY growth), upgrading full year to $720-735M.
- **Key Risks**: Brazil shipments down 17% in Q3, North America 2026 softer due to contract resets.
- **Sustainability Progress**: Scope 1/2 emissions down 10%, Scope 3 down 14% (25% below 2020 baseline).
- **Liquidity Strong**: $600M+ cash, 2025 free cash flow guidance $150M+.
- **Q4 Optimism**: North America supply chain issues easing, Brazil shipments improving in Q4.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q3 Performance**: Adjusted EBITDA grew 6% YoY to $208 million, driven by shipments in Europe and North America, lower costs, and favorable category mix. Full year EBITDA guidance upgraded to $720-735 million.
- **Europe Segment**: Revenue up 9% ($625M), EBITDA up 4% ($82M). Shipments grew 2% in faster-growing categories (ciders, teas, wines), offsetting beer weakness. Full year shipment growth expected at low single digits.
- **Americas Segment**: Revenue up 8% ($803M), EBITDA up 8% ($126M). North America shipments +1% (industry in line), Brazil down 17% due to weak demand. Full year North America shipments expected mid-single-digit growth.
- **Sustainability**: Scope 1/2 emissions down 10%, Scope 3 down 14% (25% below 2020 baseline). 2026 outlook: Europe market growth 3-4%, Brazil recovery, North America softer due to contract resets.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Liquidity**: $600M+ at quarter-end, net leverage 5.2x (down 0.4x YoY). Expect year-end leverage ~5x.
- **Free Cash Flow**: Guidance for 2025 at least $150M, driven by $135M maintenance CapEx, $100M lease repayments, $200M interest. 2026 outlook: $65M growth CapEx, $50M exceptional outflows.
- **Dividend**: Quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share declared.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Aluminum Pricing**: No significant demand elasticity in 2025 due to hedging, but 2026 risks from higher realized costs. North America 2026 industry growth 1-2%, Brazil recovery expected.
- **Supply Chain**: Q3 disruptions (metal supply, plant issues) limited growth by 1-2 points. Q4 cautiously optimistic with new mill ramping up.
- **Europe Growth**: Despite beer weakness, 3-4% market growth expected in 2026, driven by can outperformance in non-beer categories.
- **Brazil Recovery**: Q4 shipments expected to improve, full year 2025 flat vs. prior year, 2026 industry growth resuming.
- **2026 Outlook**: North America softer due to footprint changes, Europe in line with market, Brazil recovery. EBITDA growth expected over 2025.

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 Outperformance**: Global shipments +5%, EBITDA +18% to $207M, driven by Americas (revenue +21%, EBITDA +34%).
- **Updated Guidance**: Full year EBITDA raised to $705-$725M (prev $680-$700M), with Q3 EBITDA forecast $200-210M.
- **North America Strength**: Energy drinks (+double-digit) and sparkling water lead growth; Q2 shipments +8%, 2025 guidance mid-single-digit.
- **Europe Challenges**: 3% EBITDA decline due to input costs, but 3-4% full year shipment growth expected.
- **Financial Health**: Liquidity $680M, leverage 5.3x, free cash flow $150M for 2025.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q2 2025 global shipments grew 5% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA up 18% to $207 million, exceeding guidance. Americas led growth with 21% revenue increase and 34% EBITDA growth, driven by strong demand in non-alcoholic beverages (e.g., energy drinks, sparkling water). Europe saw 9% revenue growth but 3% EBITDA decline due to input cost headwinds.
- Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $705-$725 million (from $680-$700 million), with shipments expected 3-4% growth. Q3 2025 EBITDA forecast $200-210 million, up 2% YoY.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Liquidity remains strong at $680 million with no near-term bond maturities. Net leverage improved to 5.3x, targeting 5.0x by year-end. 2025 free cash flow guidance maintained at $150 million, supporting $0.10 quarterly dividend.
- Cost management initiatives reduced operating expenses, offsetting input cost pressures. Brazil shipments grew 12% Q2, outpacing industry growth of 1%.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **North America**: Strong demand in energy drinks (+double-digit) and sparkling water, with 8% shipment growth. Second half growth expected to moderate but remain healthy. Capacity constraints in Europe limited soft drink can growth by 1-2% in Q2.
- **Europe**: Beer market weakness and adverse weather impacted performance, but cans outperformed other substrates. 3-4% full year shipment growth expected despite Q2 softness.
- **Capacity Expansion**: No plans to decrease capacity; focus on brownfield investments to address tight European market. 2026 volume visibility high, with 2027 contracts largely in place.
- **Tariffs & Costs**: Minimal expected impact from recent tariffs. Aluminum timing effects reduced Q2 EBITDA but not expected to reverse in Q3.


Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. (AMBP) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Strong Q1 Growth**: 6% global shipments, 16% EBITDA growth, driven by North America (+8%) and Europe (+5%).
- **Energy Drinks Recovery**: Double-digit growth in North America, signaling broader category turnaround.
- **Upgraded Guidance**: Full-year shipments 3-4% (vs. 2-3%), EBITDA $695-720M, Q2 EBITDA $195-205M.
- **Tariff Resilience**: Minimal impact; hedging and regional supply chain mitigate risks.
- **Cash Flow Strength**: FY25 free cash flow $150M+, net leverage improving to 5.5x.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Global shipments grew 6% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA up 16%, driven by higher volumes and fixed cost absorption.
- Americas shipments increased 8% in North America, outperforming market trends, with energy drinks category growing double-digit.
- Guidance upgraded: Full-year shipments growth now 3-4% (vs. 2-3%), adjusted EBITDA $695-720M (vs. prior range). Q2 EBITDA expected $195-205M vs. $178M prior year.
- Tariff impact minimal; hedging and regional supply chain mitigate risks.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Liquidity of $570M, net leverage 5.5x (down from 6.2x YoY), with FY25 free cash flow guidance increased to $150M+.
- Maintenance CapEx $135M, growth CapEx $70M (accelerated for European capacity), and dividend policy unchanged.
- FX tailwinds and operational efficiency driving improved outlook.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **North America Energy Drinks**: Strong recovery, broad-based growth across traditional and innovative players; Q1 shipments up double-digit, momentum into Q2.
- **Tariff Impact**: < $0.01 impact on retail can cost; hedging and LME price decline offset Midwest premium increase.
- **Brazil Market**: Q1 shipments +4% vs. industry modest growth; Carnival boost in March, but cautious FY25 guidance (low single-digit growth).
- **Europe Capacity**: Utilization near 90%, planning high-return projects for flexibility and growth; no immediate need for new factories.
- **Free Cash Flow**: FY25 guidance $150M+ driven by EBITDA growth and working capital management.

Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMBP)-24 Apr 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Strong Q4 Growth**: Adjusted EBITDA up 11% to $164 million, driven by Europe's 8% shipment growth and improving Americas volumes.
- **2025 Outlook**: Global shipments expected 2-3% growth, with EBITDA targeting $675-695 million. Europe and North America capacity tight, supporting margins.
- **Sustainability Momentum**: Renewable energy projects and reduced Scope 3 emissions highlight long-term strategy.
- **Financial Strength**: $1 billion liquidity, net leverage 4.9x, and stable dividend policy support resilience.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2024 Year-Over-Year Performance**: Adjusted EBITDA grew 11% to $164 million in Q4, driven by 8% shipment growth in Europe and resilient performance in the Americas despite challenges in Brazil and North America's energy category.
- **Regional Highlights**: 
  - **Europe**: Shipments grew 4% annually, with strong end-quarter momentum. Adjusted EBITDA increased 81% due to volume growth and input cost recovery. 2025 shipments expected to rise 3-4%.
  - **Americas**: Q4 revenue declined 7% due to Brazil's customer mix issues and North America's energy category softness. Full-year North America shipments grew over 5%, with 2025 shipments projected for low single-digit growth.
- **2025 Outlook**: Global shipments expected to grow 2-3%, with adjusted EBITDA targeting $675-695 million. First-quarter EBITDA guidance set at $140-145 million.
- **Sustainability Progress**: Signed renewable energy projects in Germany and Portugal, reducing Scope 3 emissions below 2030 targets. Safety metrics improved with lower incident rates.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Liquidity and Leverage**: Ended 2024 with $1 billion liquidity and net leverage of 4.9x, down from 5.5x in 2023. Signed a $80 million Brazilian credit facility.
- **Cash Flow**: Adjusted free cash flow of $204 million in 2024, with 2025 expectations for modest outflows in working capital. Growth CapEx reduced to $40 million in 2025.
- **Dividend Policy**: Maintained quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share, supported by strong liquidity.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Tariffs Impact**: Minimal direct impact on consumer prices (<$0.01 per can), with 2025 hedging mitigating risks. Indirect demand effects seen as marginal.
- **Americas Recovery**: Brazil's Q4 shipment decline (15%) reversed in December, with 2025 growth expected. North America's energy category stabilized, supporting low single-digit shipment growth.
- **Utilization Rates**: North America and Europe expected to run at mid-90s utilization, with Europe facing capacity shortages. Brazil's utilization balanced at ~90%.
- **Free Cash Flow**: 2025 free cash flow anticipated to slightly decline due to higher maintenance CapEx ($135 million) and lease repayments ($105 million).

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