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- **Biofuel Policy Clarity**: Q4 AS&O segment operating profit $444M, 31% YoY decline offset by ethanol exports.
- **Nutrition Recovery**: Decatur East plant stabilization driving 2026 growth.
- **Cost Management**: $1.5B inventory reduction vs. $1.2B capex.
- **Ethanol Export Growth**: India's 20% blend rate and U.S. biofuel policy clarity.
- **2026 Outlook**: $3.60-$4.25 EPS range tied to crush margins.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Reported Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.87 and full-year 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.43.
- Progress in portfolio optimization and decarbonization initiatives.
- 2026 EPS guidance range of $3.60-$4.25, driven by biofuel policy clarity.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- AS&O segment operating profit $444M, down 31% YoY due to lower export activity and crush margins.
- Carbohydrate Solutions segment operating profit $299M, down 6% YoY.
- Nutrition segment recovery and joint venture with Alltech for biosolutions.
- 2026 outlook includes $100M+ impact from 45Z biofuel incentives.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- Heather Jones: Operational improvements and cost management in crush margins.
- Manav Gupta: RVO policy clarity expected to boost biofuel demand.
- Pooran Sharma: Starches and sweeteners demand challenges.
- Salvator Tiano: 2026 EPS range implications for crush margins.
- Juan Luciano: Nutrition recovery and ethanol exports.
- Monish Patolawala: 2026 crush margin timing impacts.


Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **EPS Revision**: Full-year 2025 EPS guidance lowered to $3.25-$3.50 due to delayed biofuel policy and soft crush margins.
- **Cost Savings Progress**: On track for $200-300M cost savings in 2025, with $500-750M over 3-5 years.
- **Strategic Moves**: JV with Alltech to pivot Animal Nutrition to specialty ingredients; Nutrition segment operating profit up 24% YoY.
- **Cash Flow Strength**: $2.1B cash flow year-to-date, inventory reduced by $3.2B, net leverage 1.8x.
- **Policy Impact**: U.S. biofuel policy clarity needed for 2026 crush margin recovery; RINs could lead to soybean oil demand surge.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Reported adjusted EPS of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845 million for Q3 2025.
- Full-year 2025 EPS guidance revised to $3.25-$3.50 due to delayed U.S. biofuel policy and soft crush margins.
- Self-help initiatives on track for $200-300 million cost savings in 2025, with $500-750 million over 3-5 years.
- AS&amp;O segment impacted by policy delays, but Ag Services export volumes reached a 9-year high in September.
- Nutrition segment operating profit up 24% YoY, driven by Flavors growth and biotic demand.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- AS&amp;O segment operating profit down 21% YoY to $379 million, driven by lower crush margins and policy uncertainty.
- Carbohydrate Solutions operating profit down 26% YoY to $336 million due to soft demand in starches and sweeteners.
- Cash flow from operations before working capital changes at $2.1 billion year-to-date, with inventory reduction of $3.2 billion.
- Net leverage ratio improved to 1.8x, targeting 2.0x by year-end.
- Q4 2025 outlook: AS&amp;O crush margins expected to remain flat to slightly up QoQ, with ethanol EBITDA margins 10% lower than Q4 2024.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Crush Margins & Policy**: Q4 crush margins expected flat to slightly up QoQ, but 2026 outlook optimistic if U.S. biofuel policy finalized. RINs could pop first, driving soybean oil demand and crush margins.
- **JV with Alltech**: Animal Nutrition JV to focus on higher-margin specialty ingredients, with remaining ADM business targeting 20%+ EBITDA margin.
- **Trade Dynamics**: China trade deal could boost U.S. soybean exports, but timing and volume details remain unclear. Argentina tax holiday may increase South American crush activity.
- **Nutrition Seasonality**: Q4 Flavors volume typically down 15% YoY due to beverage seasonality, offset by Decatur East plant ramp-up.
- **Insurance Proceeds**: Q4 2025 insurance proceeds split 50/50 captive vs. third-party, vs. 90% third-party in prior year.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 Results**: Adjusted EPS $0.93, $830M segment profit, $1.2B cash flow, and 6.9% ROIC.
- **Cost Savings**: $500M-$750M target on track via plant reopenings and network optimization.
- **2025 Outlook**: $4 EPS driven by biofuel policy clarity, with Q4 crush margins $60-$70/ton.
- **Risks**: Ethanol margin decline, SRE policy uncertainty, and consumer demand softness.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Reported adjusted EPS of $0.93 for Q2 2025, with total segment operating profit of $830 million.
- Achieved trailing 4Q adjusted ROIC of 6.9% and cash flow from operations of $1.2 billion for the first half.
- Progress on $500M-$750M cost savings target through plant reopenings (e.g., Decatur East) and network optimization.
- Anticipated $4 EPS for full year 2025, driven by biofuel policy clarity and operational improvements.
- Highlighted operational resilience with lowest unscheduled downtime in over 5 years.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- AS&O segment operating profit down 17% YoY to $379M due to policy uncertainty and lower crush margins.
- Carbohydrate Solutions operating profit $337M (-6% YoY), impacted by EMEA corn costs and ethanol margins.
- Nutrition segment revenue up 5% to $2B, with operating profit $114M (+5% YoY) driven by Flavors growth.
- Cash flow from operations before working capital: $1.2B for first half, down vs prior year due to lower segment profits.
- Reduced 2025 CapEx guidance to $1.3B-$1.5B from $1.5B-$1.7B, with $495M returned to shareholders via dividends.
- Tightened full year EPS guidance to $4, reflecting policy tailwinds and cost savings.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Q3/Q4 Split**: Expect 35-65% EPS split, with Q4 benefiting from biofuel policy clarity and Decatur East ramp-up.
- **Crush Margins**: Global soybean crush margins expected $60-$70/ton in Q4, up from Q2's $7/ton decline.
- **Decatur East Impact**: $20M-$25M quarterly cost savings starting Q4, offsetting prior quarters' headwinds.
- **Ethanol Risks**: Mid-single-digit EBITDA margin decline for 2025 due to industry-wide production growth.
- **Policy Risks**: SRE treatment under EPA's RVO proposal could impact crush margins; final clarity needed.
- **Material Weakness Remediation**: Successfully remediated segment disclosure controls, with ongoing compliance focus.

Archer-Daniels-Midland Company (ADM) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q1 Performance Stable**: Adjusted EPS of $0.70 met expectations, despite AS&O segment challenges.
- **Nutrition Outperforms**: 13% YoY profit growth driven by Flavors and Decatur East plant recovery.
- **Cost Savings Progress**: $200M-$300M annual target on track, with early SG&A reductions.
- **Key Risk: Crush Margins**: H2 recovery hinges on RVO clarity, with Q2 margins currently lower than Q1.
- **Tariff Mitigation**: U.S. agricultural exports shielded by 90-day tariff delay, but long-term China demand uncertain.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $0.70, in line with expectations. Total segment operating profit of $747 million, trailing 4Q ROIC of 7%, and cash flow from operations of $439 million.
- Key business highlights:
  - **Carbohydrate Solutions**: Solid performance in sweeteners and ethanol, despite softness in starch margins.
  - **Nutrition**: 13% YoY operating profit growth driven by Flavors and Animal Nutrition, with Decatur East plant nearing full operation.
  - **Ag Services & Oilseeds**: Challenged by market uncertainty, with actions taken to optimize network (e.g., Kershaw facility closure, grain warehouse consolidation).
- Self-help initiatives: $500M-$750M cost savings target over 3-5 years, with early progress in SG&A reduction and workforce alignment.

**【CFO Financial Breakdown】**
- **AS&O Segment**: Q1 operating profit $412M (-52% YoY) due to biofuel policy uncertainty, higher global crush rates, and trade volatility.
  - Ag Services subsegment: $159M (-31% YoY) from lower export volumes and $34M export duty expense.
  - Crushing subsegment: $47M (-85% YoY) due to lower crush margins ($13/ton soy, $40/ton canola vs. prior year).
- **Carbohydrate Solutions**: $240M operating profit (-3% YoY), with liquid sweetener margin improvement offsetting ethanol margin challenges.
- **Nutrition Segment**: $95M operating profit (+13% YoY), driven by Flavors growth and Animal Nutrition margin recovery.
- **Full Year Outlook**: Adjusted EPS guidance maintained at $4-$4.75, but expects to be at lower end due to crush margin headwinds. Cost savings target of $200M-$300M for 2025.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **RVO Policy Impact**: Expect crush margins to improve in H2 if RVO clarity supports U.S. biofuel demand. Current Q2 crush margins trending lower than Q1.
- **China Trade Dynamics**: Tariff delays mitigate near-term impact, but long-term reliance on U.S. soy exports to China remains uncertain.
- **Decatur East Plant**: Expected to contribute to Nutrition segment in H2, offsetting prior $25M/quarter drag.
- **Ethanol Outlook**: Q1 slightly below breakeven, Q2 expected to be slightly positive with exports as key driver.
- **Tariff Risks**: Focus on managing trade policy uncertainty through agile origination and export optimization.


Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)-6 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **2024 Financial Resilience**: Full-year EPS $4.74 met guidance, with $4.2B segment operating profit despite external headwinds.
- **Cost Transformation**: $500M-$750M savings over 3-5 years via manufacturing efficiency, third-party spend reduction, and SG&A cuts.
- **Nutrition Turnaround**: Q2+ 2025 recovery expected as Decatur East restarts, supported by $46M insurance proceeds.
- **Biofuels Outlook**: Q1 2025 crush margins near $40/ton soybean, but second-half policy clarity (e.g., U.S. 450 guidance) could drive margin expansion.
- **Dividend Growth**: 93rd consecutive dividend increase underscores financial discipline and shareholder return commitment.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Reported Q4 2024 adjusted EPS of $1.14 and full-year EPS of $4.74, in line with guidance. Total segment operating profit reached $1.1 billion for Q4 and $4.2 billion annually.
- Operational highlights include strong crush volumes in canola and LatAm, 3% higher starches/sweeteners production, and a 35% reduction in process safety incidents.
- 2025 priorities: cost management ($500M-$750M savings over 3-5 years), strategic simplification ($2B pipeline), and targeted investments in biosolutions and decarbonization.
- Announced 93rd consecutive dividend increase, maintaining 2.0x leverage ratio.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q4 2024 AS&O segment operating profit: $644M (down 32% YoY) due to lower crush margins ($10/ton soybean, $20/tonne canola) and elevated biodiesel competition.
- Carbohydrate Solutions: flat annual profit at $1.4B, driven by strong North America starches offset by EMEA margin challenges.
- Nutrition: Q4 operating profit $88M (up YoY) with $46M insurance recoveries, but full-year profit down 10% to $386M due to Decatur East downtime.
- 2025 guidance: adjusted EPS $4.00-$4.75, with headwinds from lower AS&O margins offset by $200M-$300M cost savings.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Nutrition Recovery**: Q1 2025 down 50% YoY due to Decatur East downtime, but Q2+ improvement expected with plant restart and $46M insurance proceeds.
- **Biofuels Policy**: 450 guidance uncertainty weighs on Q1 margins, but second-half clarity on U.S. biodiesel credits and global mandates (e.g., Brazil SAF) could drive recovery.
- **Argentina Tariffs**: New export tax policy may limit short-term impact, but long-term effects on crush margins remain unclear.
- **Material Weakness**: CFO Monish Patolawala reports enhanced controls for intersegment sales, with ongoing training and testing to resolve by mid-2025.

Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM)-4 Feb 25-2024 Q4 Earnings call transcript

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)-30 Jul 24-2024 Q2 Earnings call transcript

Archer Daniels Midland (ADM)-30 Apr 24-2024 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Record Financial Performance**: 2023 EPS of $6.98, driven by AS&amp;O and Carbohydrate Solutions resilience.
- **Shareholder Returns**: $3.7 billion returned in 2023, with $2 billion additional buybacks announced for 2024.
- **Nutrition Turnaround**: 2024 focus on operational efficiency, SKU simplification, and mid-single-digit revenue growth.
- **Cycle Management**: 2024 crush margins expected to moderate to $35-$60/ton, with Brazil and U.S. leading demand growth.
- **Long-Term Growth**: 2025 EPS target of $6-$7 achievable through productivity, Nutrition recovery, and disciplined capital allocation.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Reported adjusted EPS of $6.98 for 2023, the second-highest in company history, with $6.2 billion in segment operating profit.
- 2024 priorities include managing the agricultural cycle, recovering the Nutrition business, and returning $3.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases.
- Announced a 11% dividend increase and $2 billion in additional share repurchases.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Full-year 2023 results: 
  - Ag Services & Oilseeds (AS&amp;O) delivered $4.1 billion in segment profit, down 8% YoY due to lower crush margins.
  - Carbohydrate Solutions generated $1.4 billion in profit, stable despite ethanol headwinds.
  - Nutrition segment operating profit fell 36% YoY to $427 million, impacted by destocking, operational challenges, and ERP system issues.
- 2024 guidance: EPS range of $5.25-$6.25, reflecting lower AS&amp;O margins and ongoing Nutrition recovery.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Crush Margins**: 2024 crush margins expected to moderate to $35-$60/ton, with Brazil and U.S. leading demand due to B14 mandates and renewable diesel growth.
- **Nutrition Recovery**: 2024 targets include mid-single-digit revenue growth and operational simplification (e.g., 17% SKU reduction, 20+ production line closures).
- **Long-Term Outlook**: 2025 EPS target of $6-$7 remains achievable through cycle management, productivity initiatives, and Nutrition turnaround.
- **Capital Allocation**: 30% of cash flow reinvested in growth, with 70% returned to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

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