What is the market's earnings forecast for Exagen next quarter?

What guidance did Exagen's management provide for the next earnings period?

What does Exagen do and what are its main business segments?

What is Exagen's gross profit margin?

What factors drove the changes in Exagen's revenue and profit?

What were the key takeaways from Exagen’s earnings call?

Did Exagen beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Exagen year over year?

- **Record Revenue Growth**: Q3 2025 revenue up 40% YoY to $17.2 million, driven by 15% volume and 9% ASP expansion.
- **Biomarker Innovation**: New anti-PAD4 assays expand RA testing to 85% of patients, targeting $90 ASP uplift.
- **Challenges**: Lost high ASP account caused $20 ASP headwind, but October volume rebounded.
- **Pharma Expansion**: Pharma services revenue surged to $800k (vs. $100k in 2024), with $3.5M backlog.
- **Gross Margin Target**: Aiming for mid-60s gross margin via ASP expansion and cost efficiency.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q3 2025 revenue reached $17.2 million, up 40% YoY, driven by 15% volume growth and 9% ASP expansion.
- Launched anti-PAD4 antibodies, capturing 85% of RA patients (vs. 70% previously).
- 45 sales territories (up from 42), with 2 new territories among top performers.
- Lost high ASP account caused $20 ASP headwind, but October volume rebounded.
- Pharma services revenue $800k (vs. $100k in 2024), with $3.5M backlog.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Gross margin 58.3% (up 260bps YoY), driven by ASP gains and efficient COGS.
- Operating expenses $3.2M (up 18% YoY) due to R&D and sales expansion.
- Net loss $7M (vs. $5M YoY), with $3M non-cash expenses.
- Cash position $35.7M (up from $30M), supporting growth.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- Targeting $90 ASP lift from new biomarkers, currently at $72.
- Volume resilient at 2% QoQ, defying seasonal decline.
- Higher denials for new biomarkers, but appeals improving reimbursement.
- Mid-60s gross margin achievable with ASP expansion and COGS optimization.

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q2 Growth**: $17.2 million revenue (+14% YoY), driven by 14% sequential AVISE CTD volume rise and $430K/territory ASP.
- **ASP Expansion**: Trailing 12-month ASP at $428, targeting $90+ increase via biomarker adoption and lab fee schedule wins.
- **Pipeline Breakthroughs**: Anti-PAD4 launch in H2 2025, urine-based lupus nephritis markers in late-stage development, and biopharma partnerships generating $100-300K quarterly revenue.
- **Financial Health**: $30 million cash, near-breakeven Q2, and 2025 revenue guidance of $65-70 million with potential Q4 EBITDA positivity.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q2 2025 revenue reached $17.2 million, up 14% YoY, driven by 14% sequential volume growth in AVISE CTD tests.
- Per territory revenue rose to $430,000 (vs. $285,000 pre-2023), with 42 territories now operational.
- New biomarkers launched in Q1 (anti-PAD4) contributed to ASP growth, with a $90+ trailing 12-month ASP target.
- Organic growth from existing commercial team and clinician engagement, with 50%+ territory revenue growth since 2023.
- Expansion into high-growth geographies (e.g., Manhattan) and 2026 pipeline launches (urine-based lupus nephritis markers) position for long-term scale.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- GAAP net loss of $4.4 million vs. $3 million YoY, driven by debt refinancing costs.
- Gross margin improved to 60% (Q1: 59%), with ASP expansion and lab efficiency gains.
- Operating expenses rose to $13 million (Q1: $12.5 million) due to R&D investments and commercial scaling.
- Cash balance of $30 million, with Q2 operating cash burn of $3 million; nearing breakeven by year-end.
- 2025 revenue guidance of $65-70 million, with potential for positive EBITDA in Q4 2025.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Volume Sustainability**: 7% YoY growth driven by team stability (single-digit turnover) and biomarker adoption; 2025 expansion to 44+ territories expected.
- **ASP Progress**: Trailing 12-month ASP at $428 (vs. $27 in 2024); $90+ increase achievable via clinical lab fee schedule wins.
- **Pipeline Momentum**: Anti-PAD4 launch in H2 2025, urine-based lupus nephritis markers in development, and biopharma partnerships generating $100-300k quarterly revenue.
- **Market Access**: 10% penetration target with focus on Medicare reimbursement and KOL partnerships for novel biomarkers.

Exagen Inc. (XGN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Q1 Growth**: $15.5M revenue (+8% YoY), 6% sequential volume rise, ASP $419 driven by new biomarkers.
- **Biomarker Impact**: $90 ASP boost by year-end, early ALJ wins catalyzing reimbursement.
- **Financial Strength**: $28M cash/AR, new $50M credit facility for growth flexibility.
- **Pipeline Momentum**: RA33 launch late 2025, kidney disease markers in testing, 85% RA detection sensitivity.
- **Profitability Path**: Gross margin to 60%+ in H2, positive EBITDA by Q4 2025.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Exagen delivered record Q1 2025 revenue of $15.5 million, up 8% YoY, driven by a 6% sequential volume increase and trailing 12-month ASP of $419 per test.
- Launched new RA33 biomarkers contributing $90 per test to ASP by year-end, with early wins in ALJ hearings setting precedents for broader reimbursement.
- Secured positive medical policy with TRICARE, enabling streamlined billing and future ASP growth.
- Sales team stability improved (voluntary turnover 7%), with 2 new territories planned for recruitment.
- Gross margin expected to improve to low 60% in H2 2025 as new biomarkers scale.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q1 2025 GAAP net loss: $3.8 million (vs. $3.4M in Q1 2024). Adjusted EBITDA loss: $2.5M (vs. $2M in Q1 2024).
- Operating expenses: $12.5 million (+7.5% YoY), with R&D up 200K and SG&A up 700K for sales expansion.
- New $50M credit facility with Perceptive Advisors extends debt maturity to 2030, providing $25M upfront and $25M contingent on milestones.
- Cash and AR balance: $28 million as of April 30, up from $11M in Q1.
- Full-year 2025 guidance: Revenue ≥$65M, positive adjusted EBITDA by Q4.

**【Q&A Key Themes】**
- **Volume Growth**: Q1 volume up 6% sequentially, driven by new biomarkers and stable sales team. Expect continued expansion with 2 new territories.
- **ALJ Hearings**: 15+ cases filed, with multiple hearings scheduled in Q2. Early wins set precedents for Medicare Advantage coverage.
- **RA33 Launch**: Regulatory approvals pending, with CLIA validation complete. Expected launch late 2025/early 2026.
- **Kidney Disease Pipeline**: Custom array testing in Q3, targeting 3x lupus nephritis market size.
- **Debt Flexibility**: $25M drawn to refinance prior debt, with $25M contingent on 2026 revenue milestones.

**【Strategic Initiatives】**
- New biomarkers add $15M+ annualized ASP lift. Q1 partial quarter impact limited gross margin to 58.9% (vs. 59.6% in Q1 2024).
- 8% sensitivity gain in RA detection, expanding addressable market 3x lupus diagnostics.
- Custom array for lupus nephritis reduces COGS while maintaining clinical utility.
- R&D pipeline includes early kidney disease markers validated in NIH cohorts.


Exagen (XGN)-5 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: 6% YoY to $55.6M, ASP +$75 to $411, gross margin 60%.
- **Biomarker Impact**: $90/test uplift, 30%+ RA seronegative capture, 51% lupus sensitivity.
- **2025 Outlook**: EBITDA positive Q4, 40+ territories, mid-60%+ margins.
- **Cash Flow**: $22.2M ending 2024, 2026 free cash flow positive.
- **RA Market**: 8x lupus size, 2.5M annual tests potential.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2024 Yearly Highlights**: Total revenue reached $55.6 million (+6% YoY), driven by ASP growth (+$75 to $411) and gross margin expansion to ~60%. Achieved 1 million patient tests and launched new RA33 and T-cell biomarkers.
- **New Biomarker Impact**: Incremental revenue of $90/test, with early adoption in RA (30% seronegative patients) and lupus (51% seronegative patients). Case study shows diagnosis shift from fibromyalgia to RA with 90% accuracy.
- **2025 Outlook**: Target ASP expansion, volume growth via 40+ sales territories, and R&D pipeline with additional RA markers by end-2025. Expect mid-60%+ gross margins long-term.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Revenue & Margin**: Q4 2024 revenue $14.5M (guidance met), full-year gross margin 60% (vs 56% 2023), driven by ASP and cost efficiency.
- **Expense Control**: OpEx $46.7M (-10.5% YoY), with R&D up 12% for biomarker launches. Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $10.1M (-40% YoY), targeting Q4 2025 EBITDA positive.
- **Cash Flow**: Ended 2024 with $22.2M cash, net neutral Q4 burn. 2025 AR growth expected, with free cash flow positive by 2026.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **RA Market Opportunity**: 8x lupus prevalence, targeting 2.5M annual tests. New markers capture 30%+ seronegative RA patients.
- **Manufacturing Capacity**: $1.2M flow cytometry upgrade, robotics investment, and night shift scalability for 2025+ growth.
- **Pharma Partnerships**: 4x KOL collaboration, biopharma contracts in pipeline, with 2025 revenue contribution.
- **Volume Recovery**: 2,400+ unique physicians (vs 2,500 2023), targeting expansion via new territories and biomarker education.
- **ASP Trajectory**: Q1 2025 ASP ~$500, with $90 biomarker uplift. 2024 collections >12 months old add ~$2.8M to ASP.


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