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What factors drove the changes in Natera's revenue and profit?

- **Revenue Surges 35% YoY**: Q3 2025 revenue of $592 million, driven by 21,500 Signatera growth units and expanded Fetal Focus NIPT to 20 genes.
- **Gross Margin at 64.9%**: Sequential improvement of 1.5 percentage points, fueled by ASP gains and COGS efficiencies.
- **Clinical Trial Breakthrough**: Signatera shows 41% survival improvement in bladder cancer, published in NEJM.
- **Free Cash Flow Guidance**: >$100 million for 2025, with cash collections DSO at 49 days.
- **2026 Growth Path**: 10% OpEx growth, focused on R&D and clinical trials.
- **Reimbursement Expansion**: 7 new MolDX submissions in pipeline, targeting $250-$300 million in gross profit.
- **Early Detection Momentum**: PROCEED-CRC sensitivity 22.5%, FIND-CRC trial enrollment begins.
- **Market Share Expansion**: Signatera ASPs at $1,200, with biomarker state reimbursement driving ASP increases.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2025 revenue reached $592 million, up 35% year-over-year, driven by strong performance across all product lines, including a record 21,500 Signatera growth units.
- **Gross Margin Expansion**: Gross margin improved to 64.9%, up 1.5 percentage points from Q2, with COGS efficiencies and ASP improvements contributing to the increase.
- **Product Launches**: Expanded Fetal Focus NIPT to 20 genes, enhancing carrier screening for 20 inherited conditions. Signatera ASPs reached $1,200, reflecting successful biomarker state reimbursement efforts.
- **Clinical Trial Momentum**: Presented Level 1A evidence at ESMO for Signatera in bladder cancer, with data showing 41% improvement in overall survival when used with immunotherapy.
- **Guidance Update**: Raised 2025 revenue guidance to $2.18-$2.26 billion, with gross margin expected to remain above 62%.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Performance**: GAAP net income of $420 million, with free cash flow generation expected to exceed $100 million for the year.
- **OpEx Management**: SG&A flat to down sequentially, with R&D investments focused on clinical trials and product launches.
- **Cash Position**: Ended the quarter with over $1 billion in cash, reflecting strong cash collections and DSO improvement to 49 days.
- **2026 Outlook**: Anticipate OpEx growth of ~10%, with a focus on R&D and clinical trials to support long-term growth.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Reimbursement Progress**: Biomarker bills driving ASP increases, with 7 new MolDX submissions expected by year-end worth $250-$300 million in gross profit.
- **Early Detection Pipeline**: PROCEED-CRC study shows 22.5% sensitivity for advanced adenoma, with FIND-CRC trial enrollment underway.
- **Signatera Penetration**: Low single-digit market share in recurrence monitoring, with new patient starts at record levels.
- **Lung Cancer Strategy**: Exploring multi-cancer early detection, with focus on CRC first before expanding to other indications.

Natera, Inc. (NTRA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Revenue

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NTRA

NTRA fundamentals

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