What factors drove the changes in National Cinemedia's revenue and profit?

Did National Cinemedia beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What is the market's earnings forecast for National Cinemedia next quarter?

What were the key takeaways from National Cinemedia’s earnings call?

What does National Cinemedia do and what are its main business segments?

What is National Cinemedia's gross profit margin?

What were the key takeaways from National Cinemedia's earnings call?

What guidance did National Cinemedia's management provide for the next earnings period?

- **Revenue Resilience**: Q3 revenue up 2% YoY to $63.4M, driven by national advertising and Programmatic growth. Adjusted OIBDA of $10.2M reflects improved monetization.
- **Programmatic Surge**: 82% sequential growth in Programmatic, with 4x YoY revenue, targeting new advertiser segments.
- **Holiday Slate Strength**: Wicked for Good inventory nearing sellout, positioning Q4 for strong attendance and advertiser demand.
- **Profit Margin Expansion**: National revenue per attendee up 20% YoY to $0.46, highest in 5 years, despite 11% audience decline.
- **Dividend and Buybacks**: Reinstated $0.03 quarterly dividend; $18.8M in share repurchases YTD at $5.78 avg price.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 revenue of $63.4 million, up 2% YoY, driven by national advertising demand and improved inventory utilization. Adjusted OIBDA of $10.2 million, exceeding prior year's $8.8 million.
- **Attendance Trends**: Audience of 109 million, down 11% YoY, but September attendance matched 2024 levels, signaling stabilization. Q4 slate includes Wicked for Good, Avatar Fire & Ash, and Zootopia 2, with strong advertiser demand.
- **Programmatic Expansion**: Programmatic revenue grew 82% sequentially, achieving 4x YoY growth. New clients and categories (e.g., midsized advertisers) are adopting the platform.
- **Self-Serve Platform**: Q3 revenue up 23% QoQ, supported by AI-driven lead scoring and CRM activation. Local sales transformation is enhancing engagement with regional advertisers.
- **Platinum Performance**: Platinum revenue up 19% YoY, with 8% ad recall in a recent campaign, outperforming industry benchmarks.
- **4DX and Bullseye Success**: 4DX ad recall of 85% in an automotive campaign; Bullseye delivered 283,000 verified store visits, a 110% lift.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Revenue Breakdown**: National advertising ($49.9M, +6.6% YoY), local/regional ($9.6M, -15% YoY), offset by Programmatic growth. National revenue per attendee ($0.46) is highest in 5 years.
- **Cost Management**: Total operating expenses down 7% YoY to $65.2M, driven by lower attendance-related costs. Adjusted OIBDA margin improved to 16.1% vs. 11.5% prior year.
- **Free Cash Flow**: Negative $1.8M for Q3, reflecting seasonal capex and system optimization costs. Year-to-date free cash flow negative $2.4M.
- **Q4 Guidance**: Revenue $91M-$98M, adjusted OIBDA $30M-$35M. Extra week in Q4 (due to fiscal calendar change) expected to boost attendance but lower revenue per attendee.
- **Capital Allocation**: Reinstated $0.03 quarterly dividend ($2.8M annualized). Repurchased 3.4M shares YTD at $5.78 avg price; additional 100K shares post-Q3 at $4.08 avg price.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Programmatic Adoption**: 82% sequential growth, with new clients (e.g., midsized advertisers) driving expansion. Programmatic clients are 4x YoY, with no cannibalization of scatter market.
- **New IP Films**: Advertisers not avoiding new IP titles; buying based on forecasts and estimates. Incremental buying occurs post-release success (e.g., Wicked for Good).
- **2026 Outlook**: CEO optimistic on box office growth and advertiser confidence. Local sales recovery, Programmatic scale, and self-serve expansion are key growth drivers.
- **Cost Structure**: AI investments focus on lead generation and efficiency, not just cost-cutting. No immediate plans for M&A; prioritize dividend and buybacks.
- **Dividend vs. Buybacks**: Dividend seen as consistent shareholder return; buybacks opportunistic (e.g., $18.8M YTD at higher prices, $0.1M post-Q3 at lower prices).

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 Miss but Q3 Recovery**: Q2 revenue $51.8M (-5% YoY) due to advertiser caution, but Q3 guidance of $62M-$67M reflects 15% YoY growth driven by programmatic expansion and strong film slate.
- **Programmatic Surge**: Programmatic volume +50% QoQ, 70% new advertisers, targeting tripled programmatic footprint by year-end.
- **Local AI Success**: Self-serve platform revenue +30% YoY, with a telecom advertiser renewing after 253 hyper-local AI ads drove foot traffic.
- **2025 Outlook**: Q4 tentpoles like Avatar: Fire & Ash and Zootopia expected to drive box office and ad spend, with NCM uniquely positioned to capture premium video budgets.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q2 Revenue Miss**: Total revenue of $51.8M, down 5% YoY, due to advertiser caution amid economic uncertainty and box office overperformance during a seasonally slow period.
- **Programmatic Growth**: Programmatic advertiser volume grew 50% QoQ, with 70% of Q2 programmatic advertisers new to NCM. Aims to triple programmatic footprint by year-end.
- **Self-Serve Traction**: Self-serve platform revenue up 30% YoY, with a successful AI-driven local campaign renewing a major telecom advertiser.
- **Third Quarter Momentum**: Booked sales pacing ahead of last year, driven by a strong film slate (e.g., Wicked For Good, Avatar: Fire & Ash) and stabilizing advertiser demand.
- **2025 Outlook**: Optimistic on box office recovery, with Q4 tentpoles like Zootopia and Tron Ares expected to drive attendance and ad spend.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Revenue Breakdown**: National ad revenue $41.2M (flat YoY), local/regional $6.4M (down 35% YoY). Scatter market share 40% of national revenue, up 12% utilization but CPMs declined.
- **Cost Management**: Operating expenses $63.8M (flat YoY), with $4.2M increase in exhibitor fees offset by SG&A cost control.
- **Third Quarter Guidance**: Revenue $62M-$67M (vs. $51.8M in Q2), adjusted OIBDA $7.5M-$11.5M, reflecting higher utilization and disciplined expenses.
- **Cash Flow**: Year-to-date free cash flow negative $6.8M, with $18.8M spent on share buybacks and $0.03 quarterly dividend reinstated.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Revenue Growth Drivers**: Q3 guidance midpoint implies 15% YoY growth despite expected Q3 box office decline, driven by ad share gains and programmatic expansion.
- **Programmatic Strategy**: Programmatic now 2% of revenue, targeting 25%-30% of advertiser budgets. New advertisers via programmatic grew 50% QoQ.
- **Local Market Expansion**: Bullseye AI tech enabling hyper-local campaigns (e.g., 253 unique ads for a telecom brand). Local sales team rebuild underway to capitalize on recovery.
- **CTV Competition**: NCM investing in CTV programmatic platforms to compete with streaming giants, leveraging cinema's unique high-attention environment.

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q1 Results**: Revenue down 7% to $34.9M, driven by 5% attendance decline and ad spend delays.
- **Scatter Market Surge**: 42% of revenue from scatter (vs. 29% last year), Q1 programmatic revenue at 3% of total.
- **AMC Deal Win**: 2042 contract extension adds high-value post-show inventory, full Platinum network access.
- **Innovation Momentum**: 14 new advertisers using NCMx tools, 3.9 weekly avg. rating for 18-34M demo.
- **Q2 Outlook**: Revenue $56M-$61M, adj. OIBDA $2.5M-$7.5M, with scatter bookings up >100% YoY.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 total revenue: $34.9M (-7% YoY), driven by 5% attendance decline and delayed ad spend due to tariff uncertainty.
- 42% of national on-screen revenue from scatter market (vs. 29% last year), reflecting shift to real-time ad solutions.
- New AMC contract extension through 2042: aligns fees with performance metrics, adds high-value inventory post-showtime.
- NCMx innovations: Bullseye (AI-driven hyper-local ads), Blueprint (home renovation targeting), and enhanced self-serve platform.
- Q2 revenue guidance: $56M-$61M; adj. OIBDA: $2.5M-$7.5M.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- Q1 adj. OIBDA: -$9M (vs. -$5.7M last year), driven by lower attendance and one-time investments.
- Programmatic revenue: 3% of total (vs. 2024 full year total in Q1 alone), pacing up in Q2.
- Share buybacks: 2.3M shares ($14M) YTD, total $27M since program launch.
- Dividend reinstated: $0.03/share Q1, aligning with free cash flow model.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Scatter market strength**: Q1 scatter bookings up >100% YoY, offsetting upfront delays.
- **AMC deal impact**: Full Platinum network access unlocks national ad opportunities, expected to drive >2024 Platinum growth.
- **NCMx differentiation**: 14 new advertisers since Q4, targeting 18-34M hard-to-reach demo with 3.9 weekly avg. rating.
- **2025 slate optimism**: Strong Q2-Q3 films (Minecraft, Mission: Impossible) expected to boost attendance and ad demand.


National CineMedia (NCMI)-6 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Record Q4 Performance**: $86.3M revenue (+0.4% vs. 2023 Q4) and $35M OIBDA beat guidance, driven by 26% YoY box office growth to $2.4B.
- **New Advertiser Surge**: 25 new Q4 advertisers, including 25% YoY growth in Platinum ad revenue, targeting Gen Z/millennial audiences (69% of Q4 viewership).
- **Data-Driven Growth**: NCMx platform now supporting 50% of sales, delivering 47% retail foot traffic lift, with Q2 2025 ad bookings +20% YoY.
- **2025 Outlook**: Q1 softness (-13-17% YoY) expected, but 2025 slate featuring 80+ new films positions for strong second-half recovery.
- **Balance Sheet Strength**: $78.2M cash, no debt, and $13.4M share buybacks under $100M program.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- The fourth quarter of 2024 saw record-breaking box office performance, with total revenue reaching $86.3 million, exceeding the $82-86 million guidance. Adjusted OIBDA was $35 million, surpassing the $28-30 million range.
- Key films like *Wicked: Part I* ($433M) and *Moana 2* ($404M) drove attendance, with Q4 attendance hitting 101 million, up 80% from Q3.
- 25 new advertisers joined in Q4, including retail, wireless, and insurance sectors, leveraging NCM's Platinum premium inventory (28% YoY growth in Q4 Platinum revenue).
- NCMx data platform supported 50% of sales, delivering 47% lift in retail foot traffic for advertisers.

**【CFO Financial Breakdown】**
- Full-year 2024 revenue was $240.8 million (-6% YoY), with adjusted OIBDA at $45.7 million (-13% YoY), driven by a weaker first-half slate post-2023 strikes.
- Q4 operating expenses fell to $66.3 million (-6% YoY), with cost savings offsetting higher exhibitor fees from increased attendance.
- Free cash flow for 2024 was $54.5 million (vs. -$48.8M in 2023), supported by restructuring cost reductions.
- 2025 outlook: Q1 revenue expected at $34-36 million (down 13-17% YoY) due to softer slate, but Q2 pacing ahead of 2024 levels. Full-year capex to increase by $2-3 million for IT upgrades and sales tools.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Advertiser Sentiment**: 50% of sales now tied to measurable outcomes via NCMx, with 25 new Q4 advertisers and strong Q2 2025 pipeline.
- **Local/Regional Recovery**: Reinvesting in local sales teams to rebuild pre-pandemic scale, with 2025 targeting a comeback in small business ad spend.
- **2025 Film Slate**: Strong sequels (*Avatar: Fire and Ash*, *Wicked: Part II*) and original content expected to drive attendance, with Q2 2025 pacing +20% YoY.
- **Ad Spend Timing**: 45% of Q4 ad revenue from scatter market, reflecting advertisers' preference for real-time campaign execution.


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