What is the market's earnings forecast for Ramaco Resources B next quarter?

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What does Ramaco Resources B do and what are its main business segments?

What were the key takeaways from Ramaco Resources B’s earnings call?

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**Key Takeaways:**
- **Rare Earth Expansion**: Brook Mine to produce 3,400 tons of rare earths annually by 2028, with scandium pricing 67% higher than prior estimates.
- **Strategic Terminal**: National stockpile hub to generate fee-based revenue, reducing reliance on Chinese supply.
- **Financial Strength**: $272 million liquidity supports development, with met coal cash costs among U.S. lowest.
- **Scandium Opportunity**: U.S. government deal at $6.25 million/ton, 5x Chinese index, highlights Western premium for reliable supply.
- **Pilot Plant Progress**: Modular design for rapid deployment, with 6-month testing period to validate flow sheet.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Expanded Brook Mine production capacity to 5 million tons annually, targeting 3,400 tons of rare earth oxides and scandium production by 2028.
- Launched Strategic Critical Minerals Terminal to serve as a national stockpile hub, offering fee-based terminal services for rare earths and critical minerals.
- Highlighted scandium's strategic importance, with U.S. Department of War signing a $6.2 million/ton deal, 67% higher than previous estimates.
- Emphasized vertical integration across upstream (mining), midstream (processing), and downstream (terminal) to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Record liquidity of $272 million at quarter-end, up 237% year-over-year, supporting rare earth development.
- Met coal cash costs at $97/ton, among the lowest in the U.S., with Q3 EBITDA of $8.4 million.
- Rare earth project NPV of $5.1 billion (8% discount rate), IRR of 150%, and projected 2028 EBITDA of $500 million.
- Reduced met coal production guidance to 3.7-3.9 million tons due to weak pricing, focusing on value over volume.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Brook Mine Differentiation**: Unique geological anomalies in PRB provide high-grade, non-radioactive rare earths co-mingled with coal, unlike other hard rock deposits.
- **Pilot Plant Timeline**: Zeton to deliver modular pilot plant in Q1 2026, with 3 tons/day processing capacity and 6-month initial operation period.
- **Customer Conversations**: Engaged with aerospace, defense, and automotive companies for scandium offtake; U.S. government scandium pricing set at $6.25 million/ton, 5x higher than Chinese indices.
- **Strategic Terminal Economics**: Low CapEx, fee-based model for third-party storage; Ramaco to leverage own production and third-party feedstock.
- **M&A Strategy**: Opportunistic acquisitions of low-cost, underutilized coal assets in U.S. and Canada.

Ramaco Resources, Inc. (METC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Rare Earth Breakthrough**: Brook Mine pilot plant to start Q4 2025, targeting 2027 oxide production with DOE support. PEA shows $1.2B NPV, 38% IRR.
- **Met Coal Resilience**: 9% QoQ price recovery, 35% domestic sales mix. Cost-cutting measures reduce cash costs to $103/ton, lowest in U.S. peer group.
- **Government Backing**: DOE collaboration on processing, potential price supports, and offtake agreements to counter Chinese dominance.
- **Scandium Growth**: U.S. supply could unlock 6x current demand in aerospace and automotive industries.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Dual Platform Transition**: Emphasized Brook Mine as the first new U.S. rare earth mine in 70 years, combining met coal and critical minerals. Q2 production reached 1.1M tons, with cost reductions to $103/ton.
- **Rare Earth Expansion**: 1.7M tons TREO reserve; pilot plant to begin Q4 2025, targeting 2027 commercial oxide production. DOE collaboration to accelerate development.
- **Met Coal Challenges**: 25% YoY decline in Chinese coking coal prices, but 9% QoQ recovery. Focused on cost control, idling high-cost mines, and prioritizing domestic sales (35% mix) over spot exports.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q2 Results**: Adjusted EBITDA $9M (vs. $10M Q1), net loss $14M. Liquidity $105M as of July 31, with 1.0x net debt/EBITDA.
- **Rare Earth Potential**: PEA shows $1.2B NPV, 38% IRR, $141M 2029 EBITDA. Increased 2025 SG&A to $43M for rare earth acceleration.
- **Tax Credit Impact**: $15M/year EBITDA from 2.5% production tax credit starting Q1 2026.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Scandium Demand**: Aerospace and automotive industries could drive 450-1,000 tons/year by 2030. U.S. supply could unlock 6x current demand due to security concerns.
- **Government Support**: DOE labs collaborating on processing optimization; potential price supports and offtake agreements under discussion.
- **Met Coal Strategy**: 95% committed sales for 2025, avoiding spot market losses. Eagle mine idled to reduce costs.


Ramaco Resources (METC)-1 Aug 25-2025 Q2 Earnings call transcript

- **Operational Resilience**: 1 million tons Q1 production with <100/ton costs, best-in-class margins despite 9% YOY price decline.
- **Guidance Adjustment**: 2025 production cut to 3.9-4.3M tons but retains 2M tons/year expansion optionality.
- **Rare Earth Breakthrough**: Wyoming Brook Mine to become U.S.'s first new rare earth mine in 70 years, with 1.7M tons TREO resource and 80%+ recovery rates.
- **Cost Efficiency**: 2025 cash cost guidance lowered to $96-102/ton, balance sheet liquidity at $118M.
- **Critical Minerals Momentum**: Pilot plant construction starts Q3 2025, with commercial production targeted for 2028.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 met coal production reached 1 million tons (annualized 4 million tons), with cash costs under $100/ton for the second straight quarter.
- Despite global steel overproduction and pricing headwinds, Ramaco maintained highest cash margins and realized sales price among peers.
- 2025 production guidance adjusted to 3.9-4.3 million tons due to market weakness, with optionality to expand to 6.5-7 million tons via planned mine expansions.
- Rare Earth Element (REE) project at Brook Mine in Wyoming to begin mining in Q2 2025, with pilot plant construction starting in summer 2025.

**【CFO Financial Summary】**
- Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA: $10 million (vs. $29 million Q4 2024)
- Net loss: $9 million (vs. $4 million net income Q4 2024)
- Cash cost per ton sold: $98 (vs. $103 Q4 2024)
- 2025 cost guidance: $96-$102/ton (down from $97-$103)
- CapEx guidance reduced to $55-$65 million (from $60-$70 million)
- Balance sheet remains strong with $118 million liquidity and net debt/EBITDA <0.7x.

**【Operations Update】**
- Elk Creek mine operating at 3 million tons/year capacity with <100/ton costs.
- Berwind mine expansion underway with potential to add 0.5 million tons/year.
- Maben mine deep expansion could add 1.5 million tons/year over 2-3 years.
- Wyoming Brook Mine to produce 2.5 million tons/year of coal and 0.5 million tons/year of REE concentrates.

**【Critical Minerals Project】**
- Weir Geological Report estimates 1.7 million tons of TREO (including 300,000 tons of banned critical minerals).
- 80%+ recovery rates for REEs and critical minerals confirmed through testing.
- Pilot plant construction begins Q3 2025, with commercial production targeted for 2028.
- $6.1 million Wyoming Energy Authority grant awarded for pilot plant development.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- 2025 REE project CapEx to be disclosed in June PEA, but initial mine and pilot plant costs included in $55-65M guidance.
- Federal support for met coal as critical mineral may aid permitting but no direct funding expected.
- 2H25 met coal market outlook: supply cuts expected to lead to price stabilization/recovery.
- REE project economics will benefit from coal sales reducing mining costs by ~$10/ton.


Ramaco Resources (METC)-12 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Q4 Operational Excellence**: Record liquidity ($138M), sub-$100/ton cash costs, and $33/ton margins despite $30/ton price decline.
- **Supply Tightening**: 16M tons U.S. met coal exits (20% of 2024 production), European demand surge, and U.S. steel tariffs could add 2-3M tons domestic demand.
- **Growth Catalysts**: 2M tons low-vol expansion achievable in 24-36 months; rare earth project with 1.7M tons resource, pilot plant starting Q3 2025.
- **Financial Resilience**: 50% YoY liquidity growth, no debt, and $6M Wyoming grant for pilot plant.
- **Market Risks**: China steel exports at record 150M/yr, but domestic demand recovery could lift prices late 2025.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q4 Operational Strength**: Despite weak met coal pricing, Q4 was the strongest quarter of 2024 with record tons sold, cash costs under $100/ton, and liquidity at $138 million. Margins held steady at $33/ton vs. $35/ton in Q2, despite a $30/ton price decline.
- **Market Dynamics**: U.S. met coal production down 16 million tons (20% of 2024 levels) due to high-cost producer exits. European demand spikes from Ukraine and Poland mine closures are tightening supply. U.S. steel tariffs could add 2-3 million tons of domestic coal demand.
- **Growth Pipeline**: 2 million tons of low-vol production expansion (Maben deep mine + Berwind sections) achievable within 24-36 months. Rare earth project in Wyoming advancing with $10M spent to date, pilot plant construction starting Q3 2025.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 Financials**: Adjusted EBITDA $29M (vs. $24M Q3), net income $4M (breakeven Q3). Class A EPS $0.06 gain vs. $0.03 loss. Cash costs exited year at mid-$90s/ton, best among peers. Liquidity up 50% YoY to $138M with no revolver draw.
- **2025 Guidance**: Maintain full-year production/sales range of 4.5-5.5M tons. Q1 2025 impacted by weather (850-950K tons sold vs. 1.2M+ Q2). CapEx $60-70M includes $6M Wyoming pilot plant grant.

**【Operations Update】**
- **Cost Efficiency**: 4.5M/yr run rate vs. 3.9M 2023. Maben prep plant reduced trucking costs by $20/ton. 2025 labor market remains tight but improving turnover rates.
- **Supply Chain Resilience**: 1.7M tons rare earth resource estimate, focusing on 7 high-margin minerals. Wyoming project could be first U.S. rare earth mine in 70 years.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Cost Structure**: 40% of Q1 2025 exports to Asia at $111/ton netback. Variable costs tied to $40/ton royalty sensitivity. Structural cost improvements expected to persist.
- **Capital Allocation**: $40M total to add 2M tons (Maben $30M, Berwind $10M). Rare earth project at $10M spend to date, with Fluor/Weir reports due April.
- **Market Outlook**: 20% U.S. met coal supply reduction by end-2025. China steel exports peaking at 150M/yr, domestic demand recovery could lift prices late 2025.


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