What is the market's earnings forecast for ICF International next quarter?

What does ICF International do and what are its main business segments?

What is ICF International's gross profit margin?

What were the key takeaways from ICF International's earnings call?

What factors drove the changes in ICF International's revenue and profit?

What were the key takeaways from ICF International’s earnings call?

What is ICF International's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for ICF International year over year?

- **Non-Federal Growth**: 13.8% YoY rise in commercial/state/local/international revenues, offsetting 29.8% federal decline.
- **Energy Dominance**: Commercial energy up 24%, now 30% of total revenue, with grid modernization and renewables driving demand.
- **Shutdown Impact**: Q4 revenue down ~10% YoY, $25M/month loss from federal shutdown, but 80% of work unaffected.
- **Leadership Shift**: CFO transition to COO, with focus on 2026 growth via M&A and organic expansion.
- **Profit Resilience**: 11.4% EBITDA margin maintained despite federal headwinds; $66.2M year-to-date cash flow.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- **Resilient Q3 Performance**: Revenues of $465.4M, with 13.8% YoY growth in non-federal clients (commercial, state/local, international). Federal revenues declined 29.8% YoY due to shutdown and cancellations.
- **Commercial Energy Growth**: 24% YoY increase, driven by utility programs, grid resilience, and renewable development. Energy business now 30% of total revenues.
- **Federal Challenges**: $117M revenue impact from cancellations, with $8M/month loss during shutdown. IT modernization work continues, but public health/HHS projects halted.
- **Leadership Transition**: CFO Barry Broadus retiring; COO James Morgan becomes interim CFO, EVP Anne Choate to lead operations in 2026.

**【CFO Financial Review】**
- **Revenue Mix**: 57% non-federal (vs. 46% last year), 37.6% gross margin (up 50bps). Fixed-price contracts 93% of revenue, reducing risk.
- **Margins & Costs**: Adjusted EBITDA 11.4%, up 10bps. Indirect costs down 7.9% due to cost control. Tax rate 22.7% (one-time adjustment).
- **Q4 Guidance**: Revenue down ~10% YoY, EPS $1.28 (non-GAAP $1.67). Shutdown to reduce Q4 revenue by $25M, gross profit $7.5M.
- **Liquidity**: $449M debt, 2.13x leverage. $66.2M year-to-date cash flow, $125-150M full-year target.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Shutdown Impact**: Federal revenues to decline >3Q levels; $25M/Q4 revenue loss. Work halted in public health, but IT modernization continues.
- **Commercial Energy Outlook**: Double-digit growth expected in 2026, driven by grid modernization and renewables (private sector). DOE contracts unaffected.
- **M&A Strategy**: Focus on energy, infrastructure, and state/local opportunities. $40M+ cash savings from tax changes to support acquisitions.
- **Leadership Transition**: James Morgan to combine COO/CFO roles; Anne Choate to drive business development. No immediate M&A, but pipeline active.


ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Commercial Energy Dominance**: 27% YoY growth in commercial energy revenue, driven by utility demand for grid resilience and efficiency programs.
- **Profitability Boost**: 160bps gross margin expansion to 37.3%, supported by fixed-price contracts and reduced subcontractor costs.
- **Federal Recovery Signs**: Q2 federal procurement activity improved, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3 and $11.9B CDBG-DR funding available.
- **AI Innovation**: Launch of ICF Fathom AI platform positions the company for federal IT modernization growth in 2026.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Stability and Growth**: Q2 revenue was stable compared to Q1, with non-federal clients (commercial, state/local, international) contributing 57% of total revenue, up from 47% a year ago. Commercial energy revenue grew 27% YoY due to utility demand for energy efficiency and grid resilience programs.
- **Profitability Expansion**: Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 20 basis points YoY to 11.1%, driven by higher-margin commercial work and a favorable contract mix (93% fixed-price/T&M vs. 88% a year ago).
- **Federal Challenges**: Federal revenue declined 25.2% YoY due to contract cancellations ($117M impact) and delayed procurements. However, Q2 saw a pickup in federal procurement activity, with a book-to-bill ratio of 1.3.
- **AI Initiative**: Launched ICF Fathom, an AI suite for federal agencies, with early interest in cybersecurity, grants management, and regulatory analysis.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Revenue and Margin**: Total revenue $476.2M (down 2.4% QoQ, -7% YoY). Gross margin expanded 160bps to 37.3% due to higher direct labor share and commercial growth.
- **Cost Management**: Indirect expenses declined 3.2% to $123M (25.8% of revenue). Operating cash flow $52M, with debt reduced by $40M to $462M.
- **Earnings**: Net income $23.7M (EPS $1.28), Non-GAAP EPS $1.66. Full-year guidance maintained, with expectations for higher-end EPS performance.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Federal Backlog**: 50% of $3.4B backlog is federal, with $11.9B CDBG-DR funding available for state disaster recovery.
- **State/Local Shift**: Preparing for potential FEMA role shift, with active disaster recovery programs in 20 states.
- **Acquisition Focus**: Prioritizing energy sector acquisitions to capitalize on grid modernization and data center demand.
- **AI Adoption**: ICF Fathom expected to drive federal IT modernization growth in 2026, with early client interest in AI automation.

ICF International, Inc. (ICFI) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Commercial Energy Dominance**: 21% YoY growth in commercial energy, 87% of commercial revenue from utility programs.
- **Federal Risk Mitigation**: $375M federal revenue impact spread over 3-5 years; IT modernization down 5-10% YoY.
- **Profitability Resilience**: Non-GAAP EPS up 9.6% YoY to $1.94, adjusted EBITDA margin +10bps to 11.3%.
- **Backlog Stability**: $3.4B total backlog (funded: $1.9B), despite federal contractions.
- **Shareholder Returns**: $35M Q1 share buybacks, quarterly dividend of $0.14.

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 total revenue: $487.6M (down 1.4% YoY), with commercial, state/local, and international clients accounting for 51% of revenue (vs. 45% YoY).
- Commercial energy revenue up 21% YoY, driven by utility programs for energy efficiency, electrification, and demand response.
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 10bps to 11.3%, non-GAAP EPS up 9.6% YoY to $1.94.
- Federal government revenue down 12.6% YoY due to contract curtailments, with $115M of 2025 revenue impacted by stop work orders/terminations.
- Guidance: 2025 total revenue flat to down 10% YoY, with commercial/state/local/international clients expected to grow at least 15% aggregate.

**【CFO Financial Review】**
- Gross margin improved 80bps to 38%, driven by higher-margin commercial business and fixed-price contracts.
- Indirect expenses flat YoY (excluding $3.1M special charges), with DSO at 81 days (vs. 75 days YoY).
- Backlog: $3.4B (funded: $1.9B), down $375M from federal contract terminations.
- Operating cash flow: -$33M (seasonal), net debt $499M (up $24M YoY), share repurchases $35M Q1.
- Full-year tax rate: 18.5%, diluted shares: ~18.6M.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
1. **Federal Government Risk**: 
   - $375M of 2025 revenue impacted by federal contract terminations (spread over 3-5 years).
   - IT modernization business expected to decline 5-10% YoY due to delayed RFPs.
   - DOGE activity expected to continue through Q2/Q3, with no significant improvement in new awards.
2. **Commercial Energy Growth**: 
   - 21% YoY growth in Q1, with 87% of commercial revenue from energy programs.
   - Long-term opportunities in flexible load management, battery storage, and state/local climate resilience.
3. **M&A Outlook**: 
   - Likely small tuck-in acquisitions in energy sector (e.g., AEG-like deals), with no federal M&A expected in 2025.
4. **HHS Opportunities**: 
   - Potential new work in pesticide/food additive research, children's health, and fraud detection under new admin priorities.


ICF International (ICFI)-1 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **2024 Strong Finish**: $2.02B revenue (+2.9%), non-GAAP EPS $7.45 (+14.6%). Energy/infrastructure segment grew 15.4%.
- **Commercial Energy Dominance**: 26% revenue growth, AEG acquisition adds $35M+ in 2025. Electrification and utility program demand driving expansion.
- **Federal Risk Management**: 10% max downside from program cuts, $90M already impacted. IT modernization delays but long-term AI/efficiency opportunities.
- **Non-Federal Growth Engine**: 55% of 2025 revenue from commercial/state/international, targeting 15%+ growth to offset federal risks.
- **Financial Strength**: 1.8x leverage, $171.5M cash flow. $395K shares repurchased, more buybacks planned.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **2024 Performance Highlights**: Revenue grew 2.9% to $2.02 billion, driven by 15.4% growth in energy, environmental, and disaster recovery segments. Non-GAAP EPS rose 14.6% to $7.45.
- **Commercial Energy Growth**: 26% revenue increase, fueled by new contracts in energy efficiency, electrification, and utility program management. Acquisition of Applied Energy Group (AEG) adds $35M+ in 2025 revenue and enhances technology capabilities.
- **Federal Government Risk**: 10% potential revenue decline in 2025 due to programmatic work cuts, with $90M already impacted. IT modernization services (half of federal revenue) expected to face temporary slowdowns but long-term growth opportunities in AI/automation.
- **Non-Federal Outlook**: 15%+ growth in commercial, state/local, and international government revenues (55% of 2025 total), offsetting federal risks.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 2024 Results**: Revenue $496.3M (+3.8% YoY), non-GAAP EPS $1.87 (+11.3%). Full year adjusted EBITDA $226M (+6%), margin +30bps to 11.2%.
- **Cash Flow & Balance Sheet**: Operating cash flow $171.5M, debt reduced to $411.7M (1.8x leverage). $395K shares repurchased since mid-November, with plans for further buybacks.
- **2025 Guidance**: Revenue flat to -10% YoY, non-GAAP EPS $7.45-$6.70. Q1 2025 revenue $480-500M, non-GAAP EPS $1.70-1.80.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Federal Work Risk Management**: Detailed project-level risk assessment; 10% downside assumes $350M federal reduction. IT modernization delays expected but aligned with admin priorities on efficiency/AI.
- **Share Repurchases**: $48M spent since mid-November; additional buybacks likely if stock undervalued.
- **Acquisition Strategy**: Focus on small tuck-ins in energy sector; no large federal acquisitions planned in 2025.
- **Disaster Recovery Resilience**: 85 active contracts in 20 states; federal appropriations needed for large-scale recovery but state/local work continues.


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