Did Goosehead Insurance beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What guidance did Goosehead Insurance's management provide for the next earnings period?

What does Goosehead Insurance do and what are its main business segments?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Goosehead Insurance year over year?

What factors drove the changes in Goosehead Insurance's revenue and profit?

What is the market's earnings forecast for Goosehead Insurance next quarter?

What is Goosehead Insurance's gross profit margin?

What were the key takeaways from Goosehead Insurance's earnings call?

- **Revenue Growth Accelerates**: Q3 2025 total written premiums rose 15% YoY to $1.2 billion, driven by stable pricing and 85% client retention.
- **Digital Agent Investment**: $25-35 million annual spend (2026-2027) targets 40%+ written premium growth over 5 years, with H2 2026 revenue contributions.
- **Margin Expansion Potential**: Enterprise sales (DTC) will deliver higher margins than traditional channels, though short-term costs will impact EBITDA.
- **Strategic Partnerships**: New mortgage originator partnerships add 1 million+ home loan serviced annually, enhancing lead flow.
- **Share Buybacks**: $58.7 million repurchased in Q3, signaling confidence in long-term value creation.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Goosehead Insurance reported total written premiums of $1.2 billion for Q3 2025, a 15% year-over-year increase, driven by stable pricing cycles and improved client retention.
- CEO Mark Miller emphasized the company's strategic focus on becoming the largest distributor of personal lines insurance in the U.S., with a 5-year growth target of 40% in total written premiums.
- Key initiatives include expanding the franchise network (34 new agencies launched in Q3), integrating digital agent technology, and forming partnerships with top mortgage originators to capture 1 million home loan serviced annually.
- Client retention improved to 85%, up from 84% in Q2, reflecting enhanced service delivery and stable pricing.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Total revenue for Q3 2025 was $90.4 million, a 16% year-over-year increase, with core revenue growing 4% to $83.9 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA reached $29.7 million, a 14% year-over-year increase, with a margin of 33%.
- Contingent commissions rose to $4.5 million (82% YoY growth), benefiting from carrier loss ratio improvements.
- The company invested $10.9 million in the digital agent platform in 2025, with plans to spend $25-35 million annually in 2026-2027, expecting 70% capitalization and $8-11 million in operating expenses.
- Share buybacks totaled $58.7 million in Q3, reflecting confidence in long-term growth.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Digital Agent Investment**: CFO Mark Jones Jr. clarified the $25-35 million annual investment will drive 40%+ written premium growth over 5 years, with revenue contributions starting in H2 2026.
- **Margin Profile**: Enterprise sales (DTC) will generate higher margins than franchise/corporate channels, though short-term investments will weigh on margins.
- **Housing Market Impact**: Despite depressed housing activity, Goosehead's referral network (1 million+ home closings annually) mitigates headwinds.
- **Client Retention**: 85% retention rate reflects stable pricing and improved service, with potential to return to pre-2022 levels of 89%.
- **Carrier Partnerships**: 12+ carriers integrated into the digital agent platform, with support from major carriers for direct-to-consumer (DTC) initiatives.
- **Franchise Growth**: Producer count up 1% YoY, with 34 new agencies launched in Q3 and 10 corporate agents transitioning to franchises.


Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: Q2 revenue up 20% YoY to $94M, driven by enterprise sales (+88% YoY) and franchise expansion.
- **AI-Driven Efficiency**: Service costs to decline in H2 2025; contingent commissions up 103% YoY to $4.5M.
- **Strategic Partnerships**: New franchises with Baird & Warner and Fay Servicing leverage embedded lead flow for rapid scaling.
- **Commission Recovery**: Recovered $4M in past-due commissions, with $1.5M annual benefit from rate increases.
- **Guidance**: 2025 revenue growth 11%-22%, reflecting improving product mix and AI investments.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Strategic Growth Initiatives**: Expanded distribution network to over 2,500 agents and 200+ carriers. Highlighted the Agency Staffing Program (ASP), which placed 132 producers in Q2 2025, with 150+ more planned for the year. Example: Troy Cropp grew to $10M+ premium book using ASP.
- **New Partnerships**: Launched franchises with Baird & Warner (Illinois real estate firm) and Fay Servicing (mortgage servicer), leveraging embedded lead flow for rapid scaling.
- **AI and Technology Focus**: Investing in AI to optimize client experience, reduce service costs, and build a direct-to-consumer marketplace. Service costs expected to decline in H2 2025 due to AI adoption.
- **Market Positioning**: Aiming to become the largest U.S. personal lines insurance distributor, emphasizing high-quality talent, scalable infrastructure, and carrier relationships.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q2 2025 Results**: Total revenue $94M (+20% YoY), core revenue $86.8M (+18% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $29.2M (+18% YoY). Contingent commissions up 103% YoY to $4.5M.
- **Key Drivers**: Enterprise sales team grew 88% YoY, corporate new business commissions up 13% YoY. Franchise new business premiums up 13% YoY, policies in force up 13% YoY to 1.8M.
- **Commission Recovery**: Recovered $4M in past-due commissions, with $1.5M annual benefit from increased renewal commission rates.
- **Cost Optimization**: Service delivery costs expected to decline in H2 2025 due to AI. Repurchased 5,600 shares, with $99.5M remaining under buyback authorization.
- **Guidance**: Full-year 2025 revenue $350M-$385M (+11%-22% YoY), written premiums $4.38B-$4.65B (+15%-22% YoY).

Goosehead Insurance, Inc (GSHD) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Growth**: Q1 2025 marks 17% revenue growth, 22% premium growth, and 32% EBITDA expansion. 
- **Market Recovery Catalyst**: Auto product availability rebounding, home insurance reentering key markets. 
- **Strategic Differentiation**: 2.8x corporate agent productivity, 60% YoY enterprise sales growth, and AI-powered mobile app rollout. 
- **Shareholder Value**: $100M buyback authorized amid 87% NPS score and 84% client retention rate. 
- **Long-Term Vision**: 25x growth target with 36 new franchises launched in Q1 and enterprise partnerships driving scale. 


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Goosehead aims to become the largest U.S. personal lines insurance distributor, currently at $4 billion in premiums (needs 25x growth). Q1 2025 saw total revenue up 17%, core revenue up 17%, premiums up 22%, and adjusted EBITDA up 32%. 
- Market recovery: auto product availability rebounding, home insurance reentering key markets. Corporate agents are 2.8x more productive than industry average. 
- Strategic initiatives: 
  - Franchise focus on high-quality, multi-location business owners; 36 new franchises launched in Q1. 
  - Corporate office expansion (e.g., Tempe, AZ) as talent incubators for franchise owners. 
  - Enterprise sales partnerships (e.g., mortgage servicers) driving 60% YoY new business growth. 
  - AI-powered mobile app rollout to enhance client experience and agent productivity.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q1 2025 financials: 
  - Total revenue: $75.6M (17% YoY), core revenue: $69.1M (17% YoY). 
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $15.5M (32% YoY), margin 21% (16% excluding Contingent Commissions). 
  - Contingent Commissions: $4.5M (vs. $2.7M YoY). 
- Cash & debt: $70.2M cash, $300M debt. Board approves $100M share buyback. 
- Full year guidance: 
  - Revenue: $350M-$385M (11%-22% growth). 
  - Written premiums: $4.65B-$4.88B (22%-28% growth). 

**【Q&A Key Insights】**
- **Market Dynamics**: 
  - Auto rates stabilizing, home rates still higher. Texas remains key market with 30%+ price increases rolling through. 
  - Client retention improving as <25% premium increases correlate to 90%+ retention vs. <60% for >25% increases. 
- **Operational Efficiency**: 
  - G&A expenses expected to rise due to tech investments, but aim to grow core revenue faster than expenses. 
  - Franchise liquidation market supports high IRR for new owners. 
- **Risk Management**: 
  - NPS score 87% (industry-leading despite 30%+ price increases). 
  - Business resilient to macroeconomic factors; 84% client retention rate improving. 
  - Tariffs on auto repair costs unlikely to materially impact business. 
- **Technology Impact**: 
  - Mobile app expected to enhance client retention and service efficiency. 
  - AI-driven lead routing improving close rates for enterprise partnerships. 


Goosehead Insurance (GSHD)-23 Apr 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Record Growth**: 2024 revenue up 20%, EBITDA near $100M (+43% YoY). Q4 PIF growth 13% YoY, signaling 2025 acceleration.
- **Agent Expansion**: Franchise producers +7% YoY, corporate agents +39% to 417. Embedded franchises with mortgage servicers show 63% YoY productivity growth.
- **Tech Advantage**: Quote-to-Issue platform processes thousands/month. AI tools for policy recommendations and client service set new industry standards.
- **2025 Outlook**: 11-22% organic revenue growth, 22-28% premium growth. EBITDA margin expansion as core revenue outpaces expenses.
- **California Resilience**: 84% client retention despite wildfires. Franchise expansion continues in California with strong carrier partnerships.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Total revenue up 20% YoY in 2024, with core revenue growing 17% and premium increasing 29%. Q4 PIF growth accelerated to 13% YoY.
- **Market Leadership**: Positioned to benefit from improving underwriting conditions, with auto premium increases slowing and homeowners product capacity opening.
- **Agent Expansion**: Franchise producers grew 7% YoY to 2,092, with average producers per franchise rising to 1.9. Corporate agents increased 39% to 417, including 65 enterprise sales agents.
- **Technology Investment**: Launched Quote-to-Issue platform, processing thousands of policies monthly. AI tools being integrated for policy recommendations and client service efficiency.
- **2025 Outlook**: Guiding for 11-22% organic revenue growth and 22-28% premium growth, driven by franchise expansion and digital channel growth.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q4 Financials**: Total revenue $93.9M (+49% YoY), core revenue $68M (+19% YoY). Adjusted EBITDA $37.4M (+164% YoY). Contingent commissions $24M in Q4, full year $31.4M (82bps of premium).
- **Cash Flow**: Operating cash flow $71.5M (+41% YoY), free cash flow $59.4M (+53% YoY). Completed $300M Term Loan B in Q1 2025, reducing debt and paying $205M dividend.
- **2025 Guidance**: Total revenue $350-385M, premiums $4.65-4.88B. EBITDA margin expected to expand as core revenue growth outpaces expenses.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Contingent Commissions**: 2024 at 82bps of premium, 2025 forecast 40-65bps due to market uncertainty. Long-term target 80-85bps.
- **AI Impact**: No margin drag expected; investments in Quote-to-Issue and AI tools will drive efficiency and growth.
- **California Recovery**: Despite wildfires, maintaining strong product portfolio and agent support. Franchise expansion in California continues.
- **Client Retention**: 84% Q4 retention rate, aiming to return to historical 89% as pricing tailwinds abate.
- **Mortgage Servicer Partnerships**: Embedded franchises with national banks showing 63% YoY productivity growth, reducing reliance on home sales volume.

GSHD

GSHD fundamentals

Earnings Call

You can ask Aime