What guidance did GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP's management provide for the next earnings period?

What factors drove the changes in GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP's revenue and profit?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP year over year?

What were the key takeaways from GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP's earnings call?

What is GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP's gross profit margin?

What is the market's earnings forecast for GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP next quarter?

What is GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What were the key takeaways from GALICIA FINANCIAL GROUP’s earnings call?

- **Q3 Results**: Net loss of ARS 87.7 billion due to restructuring, but 9M ROE at 6.9% (excluding one-time costs). NPLs rose to 5.8%, driven by retail credit stress.
- **2025 Outlook**: Full-year ROE expected at 4% (6% excluding restructuring). 2026 target: 11-12% ROE, with Q4 2026 run rate at 15%.
- **Margin Recovery**: November margins returned to Q2 levels, with further improvement in 2026. NPLs to peak at 7% in March 2026, then decline to 4.3-4.5%.
- **Growth Drivers**: 25% YoY loan growth in 2026, focused on commercial lending and short-duration consumer loans. Deposit growth projected at 20%.
- **Capital Strength**: Tier 1 ratio at 22.1%, with no immediate funding constraints despite LDR near 100%.
- **Long-Term Vision**: Targeting 15-20% ROE by 2027 through loan-to-GDP expansion and cost efficiency improvements.

**【Management Opening Remarks】**
- **Economic Overview**: Argentina's economy grew 5% YoY in September 2025, with a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP. Inflation reached 24.8% year-to-date, with monthly rates stabilizing at 2.1-2.3% in Q3.
- **Financial Market Trends**: Peso-denominated deposits grew 53% YoY, while dollar-denominated deposits rose 38.9%. Loan growth was strong (105.4% YoY for peso loans), but NPLs increased to 5.8% due to retail credit stress.
- **Company Performance**: Q3 net loss of ARS 87.7 billion included ARS 105.3 billion in restructuring expenses. ROE was -4.7% for the quarter, but 6.9% for the year excluding one-time costs.
- **Challenges**: High interest rates (48.7% on short-term peso deposits) and regulatory changes impacted margins. NPL provisions rose 26%, and restructuring costs drove headcount reduction by 2,000 YoY.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Profit Outlook**: Full-year 2025 ROE expected at 4% (6% excluding restructuring). 2026 ROE target: 11-12%, with Q4 2026 run rate at 15%.
- **Margin Recovery**: November margins returned to Q2 levels, with further improvement expected in 2026 despite potential rate cuts.
- **Asset Quality**: NPLs expected to peak at 7% in March 2026, then decline to 4.3-4.5% by year-end. Coverage ratio to stabilize around 110%.
- **Cost Efficiency**: Restructuring reduced annualized costs by ARS 160 billion. 2026 loan growth projected at 25% YoY, with deposits growing 20%.
- **Capital Management**: Tier 1 ratio at 22.1% (down 160bps QoQ) but stable due to OCI reserve normalization. No immediate need for external funding despite LDR near 100%.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Loan Growth Strategy**: Focus on commercial lending (oil, gas, mining) and short-duration consumer loans. Dollar lending growth constrained by liquidity limits.
- **Macro Assumptions**: 2026 GDP growth 3.7%, inflation 18%, exchange rate ARS 16.10/USD. Deposit growth to outpace lending in 2026.
- **Risk Appetite**: Comfortable with capital above 13.5%, targeting 15%+ ROE by 2027 through loan-to-GDP expansion (10%+ current, +2% YoY growth).
- **Market Participation**: Exploring debt issuance for large projects, but prioritizing deposit growth for cost efficiency.


Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. (GGAL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Challenging Macro Environment**: Argentina's 17.3% inflation and 60%+ interest rates weigh on margins, with Q3 NIM compression expected.
- **Merger Synergies**: Post-HSBC integration, loans/market share +260bps to 14.5%, deposits +550bps to 16%, despite 70% YoY net income decline.
- **NPL Stabilization**: Consumer lending NPLs at 4.4% (vs. 2% YoY), expected to stabilize by Q4 with 120-130% coverage.
- **ROE Guidance**: 9-11% for 2025, excluding up to 2% ROE impact from one-time restructuring costs.
- **Strategic Shifts**: Focusing on lower-risk lending, SME growth, and reducing mortgage exposure.

**【Macroeconomic Overview】**
- Argentina's economy grew 6.4% YoY in June 2025, with primary surplus at 0.4% of GDP. Inflation reached 17.3% year-to-date, with monthly inflation at 1.9% in July. The exchange rate averaged ARS 1,181 per USD, a 23.5% devaluation YoY.
- The Central Bank shifted to a market-determined interest rate regime, leading to a spike in short-term rates (TA rate from 30% to 60% in one month). Private sector deposits grew 71.8% YoY in USD, while peso loans expanded 181.7% YoY.

**【Company Performance】**
- Q2 2025 net income: ARS 173 billion (-70% YoY), driven by Banco Galicia's ARS 98 billion profit. Naranja X contributed ARS 32 billion, Galicia Asset Management ARS 27 billion, and Galicia Seguros ARS 13 billion.
- Key challenges: 192% YoY increase in loan loss provisions, 36% YoY decline in net interest income, and 192% YoY rise in cost of risk. NPL ratio rose to 4.4% (from 2% YoY), concentrated in personal loans and credit cards.
- Post-merger with Galicia Más (HSBC), market share of loans increased 260bps to 14.5%, deposits 550bps to 16%. Liquid assets coverage improved to 94.3% of transactional deposits.

**【CFO Remarks】**
- 2025 ROE guidance: 9-11%, excluding potential 2% ROE impact from one-time restructuring costs. Q3 margin compression expected due to 60%+ TA rates, with stabilization post-elections.
- Strategy: Shift to lower-risk lending segments, reduce mortgage exposure due to securitization limits, and focus on SMEs. NPL stabilization expected by end-Q3, with coverage ratio ~120-130% by year-end.

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Loan Growth**: 30-40% YoY vs. prior 50% target, due to margin compression and risk management.
- **Margins**: Q2 NIM improvement due to lower government bond yields, but Q3 expected decline due to 60%+ funding costs vs. slower asset repricing.
- **Asset Quality**: NPLs concentrated in lower-income segments; credit card limits reduced by 30% for high-risk customers. Coverage ratio decline reflects merger adjustments.
- **Dividends**: No immediate plans; focus on capital efficiency and 2026 growth positioning.
- **Political Risk**: Volatility expected until elections; Central Bank receptive to industry feedback but constrained by inflation targets.

GGAL

GGAL fundamentals

Earnings Call

You can ask Aime