What is the market's earnings forecast for First Watch next quarter?

What guidance did First Watch's management provide for the next earnings period?

What does First Watch do and what are its main business segments?

What is First Watch's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

What factors drove the changes in First Watch's revenue and profit?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for First Watch year over year?

What were the key takeaways from First Watch’s earnings call?

What is First Watch's gross profit margin?

- **Revenue Growth**: 25.6% YoY to $316M, driven by 7.1% same-restaurant sales and 21 new openings.
- **New Restaurant Success**: 9/10 all-time highest opening week sales achieved in Q3, with 13/21 being second-gen sites.
- **Margin Expansion**: Restaurant-level margin 19.7% (80 bps YoY), adjusted EBITDA +60 bps to $34.1M.
- **Pricing Strategy**: No short-term price hikes to protect long-term 18-20% margin target.
- **Employee Strength**: 10Q employee retention improvement, named #1 Most Loved Workplace.
- **Marketing Impact**: 2x engagement in September campaign, 7M identified customers for targeted campaigns.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Total revenue increased 25.6% YoY to $316 million, driven by 7.1% same-restaurant sales growth and 21 new system-wide openings.
- 9 of the 10 highest opening week sales in company history were achieved in Q3, with 13 of 21 new restaurants being second-generation sites.
- Aggressive unit expansion targets 63-64 new locations for 2025 (11% system-wide growth), with 55 company-owned openings.
- Pricing strategy maintained to protect long-term margin profile, despite 3% commodity inflation (bacon, coffee).
- Employee retention metrics improved for 10 consecutive quarters, with First Watch named America's Most Loved Workplace for 2025.
- Digital platform enhancements (app, CRM) support 7 million identified customers and targeted campaigns.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Restaurant-level operating profit margin expanded to 19.7% (80 bps YoY), driven by 3.6% labor inflation vs. 32.6% of sales.
- Adjusted EBITDA rose 60 bps to $34.1 million, with 2025 guidance updated to $123 million (high end of prior range).
- Updated 2025 outlook: same-restaurant sales +4%, total revenue +20-21%, commodity inflation 6%, labor inflation 4%.
- G&A expenses as % of revenue decreased 30 bps to 10.7%, benefiting from timing of leadership conference.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- Traffic growth: 2.6% in-restaurant (strongest in 7 quarters), 3% delivery (2x engagement vs. prior year campaign).
- New restaurant success: Dover, DE location achieved 185% of comp base average in opening week.
- Marketing: 1/3 of portfolio targeted in 2025, with 2x response rate in September campaign.
- Commodity outlook: moderating eggs/avocados offset by persistent bacon/coffee inflation.
- Labor: $1+ minimum wage increases in key markets, but seeking efficiency gains.

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: 19.1% YoY to $307.9M, driven by 149 non-comp restaurants and 3.5% same-restaurant sales growth. 
- **New Unit Momentum**: 17 openings Q2, 19 franchise acquisitions, with 40% of recent units in high-margin second-gen sites. 
- **Customer Shift**: 60% of customers under 50, with Gen Z/millennial growth via digital engagement and menu innovation. 
- **Cost Management**: Egg costs down 30% YoY, lowering FY25 commodity inflation to 5-7%. EBITDA guidance raised to $119-123M. 
- **Operational Efficiency**: Third-party delivery volumes up 20% Q2, with incremental profit from surcharge reduction and KDS optimization.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Total revenue increased 19.1% to $307.9 million, driven by 149 non-comp restaurants and 3.5% same-restaurant sales growth (2% traffic growth). New restaurants opened in 8 states, with 17 total openings, and 19 franchise acquisitions in the South. 
- AUVs grew from $1.6M in 2019 to $2.3M today, with new units projected to reach $2.7M by year 3. 40% of recent openings were second-gen sites, achieving 35%+ cash-on-cash returns. 
- Customer base skewed under 50 years old, with Gen Z/millennial growth via digital engagement (waitlist automation, nutritional tools) and menu innovation (seasonal items testing). 
- Operational efficiency improvements include labor management and third-party delivery optimization, with June traffic hitting 2-year highs. 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- GAAP net income $2.1M, vs. $42.1M prior year. Adjusted EBITDA $30.4M (-16% YoY), margin 9.9% vs. 13.7%. 
- COGS 23.6% (up 180bps vs. 21.8%), driven by 8.1% commodity inflation (eggs, bacon, coffee). Labor 33.2% (up 40bps). 
- Updated 2025 guidance: EBITDA $119-123M (prev $114-119M), +$7M from acquisitions. Revenue +20%, 62-67 new units. 
- Egg costs improving, lowering FY25 commodity inflation to 5-7% (from high single digits). G&A expenses stable at $33M. 

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Customer Demographics**: 60% under 50, driven by digital engagement and menu innovation. Gen Z/millennial trial via third-party delivery (20%+ growth Q2). 
- **Marketing Effectiveness**: 2025 marketing spend focused on category users, with digital targeting improving ROI. 
- **New Store Performance**: 40% of 80 recent openings were second-gen sites, with 60% in freestanding buildings. 2026 pipeline 130+ sites, 40% second-gen. 
- **Third-Party Delivery**: Surcharge reduction and KDS efficiency drove 20%+ volume growth Q2, with incremental profit. 
- **Commodity Risk**: Egg costs down 30% YoY, offsetting inflation in bacon/avocados. 
- **Labor Management**: Hourly turnover below industry average, aided by CGM program (90% internal promotions).

First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Revenue Growth**: 16.4% Q1 rise driven by 0.7% same-restaurant sales and 13 new openings.
- **Traffic Recovery**: Sequential improvement from -0.7% Q1 traffic to +ve April results.
- **Margin Pressure**: 7.7% commodity inflation and healthcare costs weigh on EBITDA (-21% YoY).
- **Expansion Momentum**: 59-64 new units in 2025, with 31st state (Idaho) opening.
- **Tariff Impact**: 30bps additional cost from packaging tariffs.
- **Program Success**: Surprise & Delight program builds loyalty despite near-term margin impact.


**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- Q1 2025 total revenue grew 16.4% to $282.2M, driven by 0.7% positive same-restaurant sales and 13 new openings.
- Traffic trends showed sequential improvement: +ve in January, -ve in February (weather-impacted), +ve in March, and April posted best monthly same-restaurant traffic in 2+ years.
- New restaurant pipeline remains strong, with 33 openings in last two quarters and 59-64 net new units expected in 2025.
- Margins pressured by higher commodity costs (eggs, bacon, coffee, avocados) and healthcare expenses, but confident in long-term growth strategy.

**【CFO Financial Highlights】**
- GAAP net loss of $0.8M; Adjusted EBITDA of $22.8M (-21% vs. 2024Q1).
- Commodity inflation at 7.7% (high single-digits expected for 2025), with Q2 as peak for egg and coffee costs.
- Restaurant-level labor inflation 4.1%, stable efficiency vs. prior year.
- 2025 guidance: 20% revenue growth, 59-64 new units, $114-119M Adjusted EBITDA.

**【Q&A Key Takeaways】**
- **Commodity Costs**: Eggs, bacon, coffee, avocados driving 7.7% inflation; Q2 peak expected with relief in H2.
- **Marketing Impact**: New campaigns in March showing early success; ~$2.5M incremental Q1 marketing spend.
- **Surprise & Delight Program**: Higher-than-expected costs but building customer loyalty; will manage scale carefully.
- **Florida Market**: Outperforming system with 14 restaurants, plans to continue expansion.
- **Tariffs**: 30bps of additional cost pressure in 2025, primarily on packaging supplies.

**【Operational Wins】**
- 8 consecutive quarters of improved employee turnover rates.
- 31st state expansion with Idaho opening; 584 total locations across 31 states.
- New restaurants tracking 10%+ vs. comp cohort, with 35%+ cash-on-cash returns.
- DoorDash partnership reversed delivery channel traffic decline, +mid-teens traffic growth.
- Trifecta portion size increase maintained margin via carried pricing, despite bacon cost spike.


First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Record Growth**: 2024 revenue surpasses $1B, driven by 50 new restaurants and 25%+ returns on new units
- **Marketing Expansion**: 2025 spend to scale targeted campaigns, aiming for +traffic without promotions
- **Profitability**: Q4 adjusted EBITDA up 24% to $24.3M; 2025 guidance targets $124-130M
- **Commodity Headwinds**: High single-digit inflation (eggs, pork) expected to persist through 2025
- **Operational Strength**: 18.8% restaurant-level margin despite 0.3% same-store sales decline
- **Growth Pipeline**: 59-64 new units in 2025, including 55+ company-owned openings

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Total revenue reached $1 billion in 2024, with adjusted EBITDA exceeding $100 million for the first time. New restaurant openings in 2024 are projected to generate 35%+ cash-on-cash returns and 22%+ IRR. 
- 2025 marketing spend will focus on targeted campaigns across digital, social, and direct channels, aiming to drive positive traffic growth without aggressive promotions. 
- Q4 2024 same-restaurant sales declined 0.3% (-3% traffic), but Q1 2025 traffic is already improving due to delivery channel optimizations. 
- Menu innovation (larger portions, premium fruits) and customer experience enhancements (complimentary coffee) are key differentiators. 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q4 2024 revenue: $263.3M (+16.8% vs. 53-week 2023)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $24.3M (+24% vs. 2023Q4)
- Restaurant-level operating margin: 18.8% (flat vs. 2023Q4)
- 2025 guidance: 
  - Same-restaurant sales: +low single digits
  - Total revenue: +20% (including 400bps from acquisitions)
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $124-130M
  - Commodity inflation: high single digits (eggs, pork, coffee)
  - Labor inflation: 2-4%

**【Key Q&A Highlights】**
- **Commodity Risk**: 15% of COGS tied to eggs/potatoes; 2025 inflation expected to persist through Q2
- **Marketing ROI**: 2025 spend will be ~1-2% of sales, targeting both new customers and frequency
- **Labor Efficiency**: 2024 improvements offset 4.3% labor inflation; further gains expected with traffic recovery
- **New Unit Performance**: 2024 openings on track for $2.6M AUV (20% above system average)
- **Tariff Impact**: ~$1M annualized from recent tariffs on restaurant equipment

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