What is the market's earnings forecast for Freshpet next quarter?

Did Freshpet beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What guidance did Freshpet's management provide for the next earnings period?

What is Freshpet's gross profit margin?

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What were the key takeaways from Freshpet's earnings call?

What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Freshpet year over year?

What does Freshpet do and what are its main business segments?

- **Revenue Beats Expectations**: Q3 net sales +14% YoY ($288.8M), EBITDA +25% YoY ($54.6M). 
- **Strategic Tech Investment**: New production line to close bag/roll margin gap, 16 new fridge islands launched. 
- **Free Cash Flow Milestone**: Positive FCF in Q3, targeting full-year positive. 
- **E-commerce Growth**: 45% Q3 e-commerce growth, DTC targeting 14%+ share by 2026. 
- **Financial Discipline**: 2025 CapEx $140M (down $35M), media spend >20% of sales.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 net sales $288.8M (+14% YoY), driven by 12.9% volume growth and 1.1% price/mix. Adjusted EBITDA $54.6M (+25% YoY). 
- **Strategic Initiatives**: 
  - New production technology line expected to start Q4 2025, with potential to close margin gap between bagged and rolled products. 
  - Expansion of e-commerce (45% Q3 growth) and DTC channels targeting 70% MVPs. 
  - 16 new fridge islands launched in key retailers, with 125+ stores testing by end-2025. 
- **Free Cash Flow**: Achieved positive free cash flow in Q3, now targeting full-year positive FCF. 
- **Guidance Update**: 2025 net sales growth ~13%, adjusted EBITDA $190-195M (vs. prior $190-210M). 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Financial Highlights**: 
  - Q3 GAAP net income $101.7M (vs. $11.9M prior), driven by $77.9M deferred tax benefit. 
  - Adjusted gross margin 46.0%, stable vs. prior year. 
  - SG&A 27.1% of sales (vs. 29.3% prior), media spend 11.2% of sales. 
- **Liquidity**: $274.6M cash on hand, no need for external capital. 
- **CapEx**: $140M 2025 (down from $175M prior), focused on new tech adoption and capacity. 

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Technology Impact**: Light-version bag line conversion expected Q2 2026, with potential to improve margins 100-200bps. 
- **Distribution Growth**: 12% +2025 fridge count expansion, 29,745 stores with 38,778 fridges. 
- **Competitive Response**: Maintaining media spend >20% of sales, avoiding trade promotions to preserve brand equity. 
- **Tax Outlook**: NOL utilization completed, expect cash taxes ~2028. 
- **E-commerce**: DTC business 70% incremental households, targeting 14%+ e-commerce share by 2026.

Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q2 Growth**: 12.5% revenue growth ($264.7M), 26% EBITDA increase to $44.4M. 
- **Margin Expansion**: 46.9% gross margin (up 100bps YoY), 22% EBITDA target achievable with mid-teens sales growth. 
- **CapEx Reduction**: $175M FY25 (down $100M+), driven by operational efficiency and new tech. 
- **Strategic Shifts**: 
  - Media focus on fresh health benefits. 
  - Club channel expansion (125 stores). 
  - Digital growth (+40% e-commerce). 
- **Long-Term Targets**: 48% gross margin, 22% EBITDA by 2027, assuming 13-16% FY25 sales growth. 
- **Risks**: Macroeconomic headwinds impacting MVP buy rate growth. 
- **Opportunities**: Cat food expansion, international testing, and last-mile delivery partnerships. 


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Q2 net sales: $264.7M (+12.5% YoY), driven by volume growth and mix. Adjusted gross margin: 46.9% (+100bps YoY). Adjusted EBITDA: $44.4M (+26% YoY). 
- Ennis plant now most profitable, with 50%+ production contribution expected in 2 years. New bag production technology pilot in Q4; light version to be tested in 2026. 
- Updated FY25 guidance: 13-16% net sales growth (prev 15-18%), $190-210M EBITDA. Removed $1.8B 2027 sales target. 
- Key initiatives: media shift to fresh health benefits, club channel expansion (125 stores), value-focused products (new bag line), and digital growth (40% Q2 e-commerce). 
- Long-term targets: 48% gross margin, 22% EBITDA margin by 2027, assuming mid-teens sales growth. 

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q2 financials: 
  - Net sales: $264.7M (+12.5% YoY). 
  - Adjusted gross margin: 46.9% (vs 45.9% YoY). 
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $44.4M (+26% YoY). 
  - CapEx: $33.4M Q2, $175M FY25 (prev $225M). 
- FY25 guidance: 
  - Net sales: 13-16% growth. 
  - EBITDA: $190-210M. 
  - CapEx: $175M (down $100M+ from prior estimates). 
- Key trends: 
  - Media spend as % of sales: 15% Q2 (vs 12.2% YoY). 
  - Logistics costs stable at 5.7%. 
  - Free cash flow positive in 2026. 

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Margin Path**: 22% EBITDA margin achievable with mid-teens sales growth, driven by gross margin expansion (47%+ in 2025) and G&A leverage. New tech not factored into targets. 
- **Household Penetration**: 14.4M households (+11% YoY), MVPs (2.2M) up 18% YoY. Buy rate growth outpacing penetration due to macro constraints. 
- **Competition**: Blue Buffalo entry seen as category validator; Freshpet's scale, distribution, and innovation provide moat. 
- **Digital Growth**: E-commerce 13% of sales, +40% YoY. Testing last-mile delivery via Instacart. 
- **Club Channel**: 125 stores in Q2, potential expansion in 2026. 
- **Tariffs**: Minimal impact on 2025 guidance, but included in CapEx reduction. 
- **MVP Strategy**: Focusing on high-income, health-conscious consumers through targeted digital/social campaigns. 
- **Cat Food**: Small but growing business; exploring expansion with cat-specific product development. 
- **Capacity**: $1.5B+ installed capacity, with operational efficiency gains reducing need for new CapEx. 
- **Tariffs**: Included in $175M CapEx projection, but no material impact on 2025 results. 
- **Club Channel**: 125 stores in Q2, potential expansion in 2026. 
- **Tariffs**: Minimal impact on 2025 guidance, but included in CapEx reduction. 
- **MVP Strategy**: Focusing on high-income, health-conscious consumers through targeted digital/social campaigns. 
- **Cat Food**: Small but growing business; exploring expansion with cat-specific product development. 
- **Capacity**: $1.5B+ installed capacity, with operational efficiency gains reducing need for new CapEx. 


Freshpet, Inc. (FRPT) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

- **Q1 2025 Strong Performance**: 18% revenue growth driven by volume (+14.9%) and price/mix (+2.7%). E-commerce sales surged 43% QoQ.
- **Strategic Adjustments**: 
  - Media spend up 24% YoY targeting higher-income consumers
  - New entry-price bag product and multipacks to drive trial
  - DTC expansion and Sam's Club entry
- **Updated Guidance**: 
  - 2025 sales $1.12B-$1.15B (15%-18% growth)
  - EBITDA $190M-$210M
  - Free cash flow target for 2026
- **Key Risks**: Macroeconomic uncertainty could delay 2027 $1.8B sales target, but operational efficiency improvements (e.g., 45.7% gross margin) provide margin resilience.
- **Competitive Edge**: Outperforms category across all income groups; e-commerce segment shows strongest growth.


**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Revenue Growth**: Q1 2025 net sales of $263.2 million, up 18% YoY, driven by volume growth (+14.9%) and favorable price/mix (+2.7%).
- **Consumer Dynamics**: Despite macroeconomic uncertainty, Freshpet outperformed the category across all income groups. Higher-income consumers (e.g., e-commerce buyers) showed resilience, with e-commerce sales up 43% QoQ.
- **Strategic Adjustments**: 
  - Increased media spend (+24% YoY) targeting higher-income consumers via digital/social and linear TV.
  - Launched new entry-price-point bag product and multipacks to drive trial and value perception.
  - Expanded DTC business and entered Sam's Club, with early results encouraging.
- **Long-Term Outlook**: Maintains $1.8 billion 2027 sales target, though acknowledges potential delays due to macroeconomic headwinds. Emphasizes operational efficiency improvements (e.g., Ennis plant performance) as key margin drivers.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q1 2025 Financials**: 
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $35.5 million (16% YoY growth)
  - Adjusted Gross Margin: 45.7% (up 40bps YoY)
  - Media Spend: 15.1% of net sales (vs. 14.3% YoY)
  - Operating Cash Flow: $4.8 million
- **2025 Guidance Update**: 
  - Net Sales: $1.12B-$1.15B (15%-18% YoY growth)
  - Adjusted EBITDA: $190M-$210M
  - CapEx: $225M (down from $250M prior guidance)
  - Free Cash Flow Target: 2026
- **Key Drivers**: 
  - Gross margin expansion through operational efficiency
  - Media spend acceleration to drive household penetration
  - Contingency plans for capacity investments based on demand

**【Q&A Highlights】**
- **Macroeconomic Sensitivity**: Management assumes Q1 2025 conditions will persist, but maintains flexibility to adjust investments based on macro trends.
- **Media Effectiveness**: CAC remains elevated, but new creative and targeting strategies show early promise. Q2 media spend ~$40M, ~30% YoY growth.
- **Channel Performance**: 
  - Grocery/mass channels outperforming pet specialty (17% vs. 7% growth)
  - Club channel expansion (e.g., Sam's Club) viewed as long-term growth opportunity
- **Tariff Impact**: Minimal direct impact on US COGS, but potential indirect effects via steel costs for new construction.
- **Competitive Landscape**: Increased promotional activity from competitors, but Freshpet maintains category leadership through differentiated value proposition.


Freshpet (FRPT)-5 May 25-2025 Q1 Earnings call transcript

- **Record Profitability**: 2024 EBITDA up 143% to $161.8M, with 650bps gross margin expansion.\n- **2025 Growth Target**: $1.18-1.21B sales (+21-24% YoY), backed by 22% EBITDA margin target.\n- **Long-Term Ambition**: 2027 adjusted gross margin raised to 48%, with mid-20s EBITDA margin potential beyond 2027.\n- **Operational Discipline**: Free cash flow positive by 2026, with $250M capex for capacity expansion.\n

**【CEO Opening Remarks】**
- **2024 Full Year Highlights**: Net sales of $975 million (+27% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA of $161.8 million (+143% YoY), and first-time positive net income ($0.94 EPS).\n- **Gross Margin Expansion**: 650bps improvement to 46.5%, driven by lower input, quality, and logistics costs.\n- **Household Penetration**: +17% YoY to 13.5 million households, with MVPs (super-heavy users) accounting for 69% of sales.\n- **2027 Targets Raised**: Adjusted gross margin to 48% (vs. 45% prior) and EBITDA margin to 22% (vs. 18% prior).\n
**【CFO Financial Details】**
- **Q4 2024 Results**:\n  - Net sales: $262.7 million (+22% YoY)\n  - Adjusted gross margin: 48.1% (vs. 41.1% YoY)\n  - Adjusted EBITDA: $52.6 million (+68% YoY)\n- **2025 Guidance**:\n  - Net sales: $1.18-1.21 billion (+21-24% YoY)\n  - Adjusted EBITDA: ≥$210 million\n  - CapEx: $250 million\n- **Margin Dynamics**: Q1 2025 gross margin expected to dip 150bps due to inventory normalization, but long-term margin expansion remains intact.\n
**【Capacity & Growth Strategy】**\n- **Production Capacity**: 3 kitchens capable of supporting $3 billion in sales, with disciplined capital allocation to avoid overbuilding.\n- **Retail Expansion**: 28,141 stores (+1,300 YoY), 36,544 fridges, and 77% ACV in grocery.\n- **Free Cash Flow**: Expected to turn positive in 2026, enabling self-funding of growth.\n

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