What is the market's earnings forecast for eBay next quarter?

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What guidance did eBay's management provide for the next earnings period?

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- **Q3 Growth Drivers**: 8% GMV growth driven by 15%+ focus category expansion (collectibles, motor parts, fashion). eBay Live GMV up 5x YoY, AI tools boost seller efficiency.
- **Strategic Wins**: Tise acquisition strengthens circular economy; U.K. C2C GMV growth accelerates with managed shipping. Vehicles business (Caramel) sees 200%+ GMV growth.
- **Financial Resilience**: Non-GAAP EPS up 14% to $1.36, free cash flow $803M. Q4 guidance: GMV $20.5-20.9B, revenue $2.83-2.89B.
- **2026 Outlook**: 3-4% GMV growth with narrowing gap to revenue due to vehicles and eBay Live. $2.5B+ capital returns planned.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- **Q3 Performance Highlights**: GMV grew 8% to $20.1 billion, revenue rose 8% to $2.82 billion, and non-GAAP EPS increased 14% to $1.36. Focus categories (collectibles, motor parts, fashion) drove 15% GMV growth, with collectibles leading at 100%+ YoY growth in Pokémon and trading cards.
- **Innovation & Expansion**: eBay Live GMV run rate up 5x YoY, expanded to U.K. with 20,000-viewer events. AI tools like magical listings and AI shopping agents improved seller efficiency and buyer experience. Acquired Tise for Nordic pre-loved fashion market.
- **Strategic Initiatives**: U.K. C2C GMV growth accelerated with managed shipping; vehicles business (Caramel) saw 200%+ GMV growth, leveraging end-to-end services for collectible cars.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- **Q3 Financials**: Non-GAAP operating income up 9% to $764M, free cash flow $803M. First-party ad revenue grew 23% to $496M, offsetting headwinds from trade policy (de minimis exemption removal) and lower cross-border volume.
- **Q4 Outlook**: GMV $20.5-20.9B (4-6% YoY), revenue $2.83-2.89B (8-10% YoY). Expect 10-15% GMV growth in 2026, with narrowing gap between GMV and revenue growth due to vehicles and eBay Live lower take rates.
- **Capital Allocation**: $2.5B share buybacks planned for 2025, targeting 90-100% of free cash flow for returns in 2026.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **AI Impact**: CEO emphasizes AI as growth driver, with eBay Live and vehicles benefiting from agentic commerce. CFO notes reinvestment in strategic initiatives (e.g., shipping solutions) to balance top/bottom line growth.
- **Trading Cards Sustainability**: Jamie highlights long-term runway for trading cards, despite Q4 deceleration due to strong 2024 comps.
- **Vehicles Business**: Peggy notes Caramel's low take rate (mid-single digits) but sees potential for high ASP GMV contribution.
- **De Minimis Impact**: CFO expects 1% GMV growth headwind in 2026 from U.S. trade policy changes, offset by focus category momentum.

eBay Inc. (EBAY) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Revenue

Sales and Services Revenue

Financing Services Revenue

Other Revenue

Cost of Revenue

Cost of Goods and Services

Cost of Financing Services

Other Cost

Gross Profit

Other Operating Income

Operating Expenses

Selling, General and Administrative Expenses

Selling and Marketing Expenses

General and Administrative Expenses

Research and Development Expenses

Loss on Bad Debts

Loss on Impairment of Other Assets

Loss on Disposal of Assets

Other Operating Expenses

Operating Income

Non-Operating Income (Loss)

Income (Loss) from Affiliates

Income (Loss) from Associates

Income (Loss) from Joint ventures

Gain (Loss) on Other Investment

Gain (Loss) on Change in Fair Value

Gain (Loss) on Foreign Currency Exchange

Other Non-Operating Income (Loss)

Net Interest Expense

Interest Expense

Interest Income

Pretax Income From Continuing Operations

Income Tax Expense

Current Income Tax

Deferred Income Tax

Income Tax Adjustments

Net Income from Continuing Operations

Income from Discontinued Operations

Other Items Before Net Income

Net Income

Net Income Attributable to Minority Interests

Net Income Attributable to Owners of the Company

Preferred Stock Dividends

Other Adjustments

Net Income Attributable to Common Stockholders

Other Comprehensive Income

Total Comprehensive Income

Total Comprehensive Income Attributable to Minority Interests

Total Comprehensive Income Attributable to Owners of the Company

Basic EPS

Basic EPS from Continuing Operations

Basic EPS from Discontinued Operations

Diluted EPS

Diluted EPS from Continuing Operations

Diluted EPS from Discontinued Operations

EBAY

EBAY fundamentals

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