What is the revenue and EPS growth rate for Astrana Health year over year?

What is the market's earnings forecast for Astrana Health next quarter?

What does Astrana Health do and what are its main business segments?

What were the key takeaways from Astrana Health’s earnings call?

What factors drove the changes in Astrana Health's revenue and profit?

What is Astrana Health's latest dividend and current dividend yield?

Did Astrana Health beat or miss consensus estimates last quarter?

What guidance did Astrana Health's management provide for the next earnings period?

- **Revenue Growth**: Q3 2025 revenue up 100% YoY to $956 million, driven by Prospect integration and organic growth.
- **AI Innovation**: AI tools for risk prediction, claims analytics, and clinical documentation enhance care efficiency and margins.
- **Guidance Update**: 2025 EBITDA revised to $200 million-$210 million due to delayed full-risk contracts, with 2026 growth driven by Medicare Advantage rates.
- **Financial Strength**: Net leverage reduced to 2.5x, with plans to deleverage to below 2.0x through free cash flow.
- **Partnerships**: New deals with Intermountain Health and a Southern California provider group expand market reach and EBITDA contribution.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Astrana Health reported Q3 2025 revenue of $956 million, up 100% year-over-year and 46% sequentially, driven by the integration of Prospect Health and organic growth.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $68.5 million, up 52% year-over-year, with medical cost trends stable across both legacy Astrana and Prospect businesses.
- AI initiatives include predictive risk models, claims analytics tools, and a large language model for clinical documentation, enhancing care coordination and efficiency.
- New partnerships with Intermountain Health in Nevada and a Southern California provider group (40,000+ members) expand market reach.
- 2025 guidance updated to $3.1 billion-$3.18 billion in revenue and $200 million-$210 million in EBITDA, reflecting delayed full-risk contract transitions to Q1 2026.
- 2026 outlook includes Medicare Advantage rate tailwinds and Medicaid headwinds due to regulatory changes.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Total revenue growth of 100% YoY and 46% QoQ, with Care Enablement segment doubling in Q3.
- Operating expenses as a percentage of revenue declined, with $12 million-$15 million synergy targets on track.
- Cash flow from operations was $10 million for the quarter, with full-year free cash flow conversion expected at 40%-45% of EBITDA.
- Net leverage ratio improved to 2.5x on a pro forma basis, with plans to reduce leverage through EBITDA growth and free cash flow.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **Full-Risk Contract Delays**: 50% of delayed contracts expected to go live on 1/1/2026, others in Q1 2026, impacting Q4 2025 revenue by $60 million and EBITDA by $15 million.
- **Medicaid Trends**: Year-to-date disenrollment rates in mid-single digits, better than industry averages, with plans to stabilize trends in 2026.
- **AI Synergies**: Prospect integration on track for mid-2026, with AI tools expected to drive operating leverage and margin expansion.
- **Leverage Reduction**: Target to reduce net leverage below 2.0x within 12 months through EBITDA growth and cash flow generation.
- **2026 Growth Drivers**: Medicare Advantage rate increases,Prospect synergies, and full-risk contract expansion offset by Medicaid regulatory headwinds.

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