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- **EUV Growth Driven by AI**: Q3 EUV system sales up 30% YoY, with High-NA shipments to SK Hynix and advanced DRAM adoption accelerating.
- **China Revenue Warning**: 2026 China sales expected to drop significantly due to deep UV normalization, but 2026 total net sales will match 2025 levels.
- **AI Partnership Payoff**: EUR 1.3 billion investment in Mistral AI to enhance ASML systems with generative AI, improving customer yield and time-to-market.
- **Long-Term Ambition**: 2030 target of EUR 44-60 billion revenue with 56-60% gross margin, driven by advanced logic and DRAM EUV adoption.
- **High-NA Risk/Reward**: High-NA gross margin will remain dilutive until 2028+ high-volume manufacturing, but positions ASML for leadership in 3nm+ nodes.

**【CEO Summary Section】**
- Highlighted positive market news flow, including AI infrastructure investments and broader customer adoption of EUV technology.
- Noted strong demand for EUV systems in advanced DRAM and leading-edge logic, with High-NA systems expected to ship to SK Hynix in Q3.
- Announced strategic partnership with Mistral AI to embed AI across ASML's portfolio, enhancing system performance and customer yield.
- Warned of significant year-over-year decline in China revenue in 2026 due to normalization of deep UV demand, but reaffirmed 2026 total net sales will not fall below 2025 levels.
- Long-term outlook (2030) targets EUR 44-60 billion revenue with 56-60% gross margin, driven by advanced logic and DRAM adoption of EUV.

**【CFO Financial Commentary】**
- Q3 2025 net sales: EUR 7.5 billion (within guidance), with EUV system sales at EUR 2.1 billion and non-EUV at EUR 3.4 billion.
- Gross margin: 51.6% (within guidance), driven by strong EUV mix and cost control.
- R&D expenses: EUR 1.1 billion (below guidance), SG&A: EUR 303 million (as guided).
- Q4 2025 guidance: Total net sales EUR 9.2-9.8 billion, gross margin 51-53%, with EUV growth offsetting deep UV decline.
- Full-year 2025 outlook: EUR 32.5 billion net sales, 52% gross margin.
- Share buyback program extended beyond 2025, with new program to be announced in 2026.

**【Q&A Key Highlights】**
- **China Market Decline**: CFO confirmed 2026 China revenue will drop significantly due to normalization of deep UV demand, but noted Q3 2025 China sales were unexpectedly strong.
- **High-NA Tool Ramp**: CEO expects first High-NA orders in late 2026, with shipments to customers in 2028+; High-NA gross margin will remain dilutive until high-volume manufacturing in late 2020s.
- **AI and Lithography Intensity**: CEO noted AI-driven demand for advanced nodes will increase lithography intensity, with more EUV layers in both logic and DRAM; 4F² DRAM nodes will not reduce EUV layer count.
- **Working Capital Dynamics**: CFO attributed inventory growth to High-NA production lead times, with cycle time improvements needed to reduce working capital intensity.
- **2026 Outlook Uncertainty**: Management emphasized 2026 order visibility limited by customer qualification timelines, but expressed confidence in EUV growth driven by AI infrastructure build-out.

ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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ASML

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