XXIX Metal's Thierry Project: A Skeptic's Look at the Drill Data

XXIX Metal is laying out a clear, data-driven story for its Thierry project. The company's thesis rests on solid groundwork: it's taking a past-producer with known resources and rigorously validating the old data to see if it can be upgraded and expanded. This isn't a wildcat exploration play; it's a brownfield development effort, and the company is doing its homework.

The first pillar is a massive data cleanup. Over the past two years, XXIX has applied the same meticulous reinterpretation discipline it used at its Opemiska project to over 210,000 metres of historical drilling at Thierry. This work, they say, has converted legacy information into a modern, validated geological database. For the K1 zone, this reinterpretation is complete and supports a bulk-tonnage open-pit model, with grades potentially improving with depth. The K2 zone validation is nearing completion. This is the essential first step-turning scattered drill holes into a reliable map before you start digging.

The second pillar is a new, systematic survey that aims to find the next layer of value. In late 2025, the company completed its first large-scale, systematic IP survey at Thierry, covering 73.5 line-kilometres. The results are the most promising new signal. The survey identified strong IP anomalies between the K1 and K2 zones, east of K1, and west of K2. These anomalies are interpreted as potential sulphide mineralization, which is key because sulphides often host higher-grade, more valuable copper and PGEs. The company sees this as a compelling target, suggesting a possible connection between the two known deposits that could dramatically expand the project's scale.

So, the company's claim is straightforward: they have a solid foundation from a past producer, they've cleaned up the data, and they've now found new geophysical targets that could lead to a major resource upgrade. The setup is classic for a junior miner with a brownfield project. The work is methodical, the data is tangible, and the potential reward-a larger, higher-grade mine-is clear. The real test, of course, is whether the drill bit confirms the IP signal. That's the long, expensive, and uncertain road ahead.

The Reality Check: What the Data Actually Shows

The company's story is promising, but the real test is economics. For Thierry to be more than just a data cleanup project, it needs to deliver returns that match or beat the benchmark set by Opemiska. The numbers there are tough to beat. The Opemiska PEA's base case shows an after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) of 27.2% and a payback period of 2.3 years. That's the gold standard the market will hold Thierry to. Any new PEA for Thierry must clear that hurdle to be considered a serious investment.

Here's a key difference that changes the game. The last PEA for Thierry, from 2021, did not include the K1-1 open pit deposit. That deposit is now central to the company's new vision, supporting a potential bulk-tonnage, lower-cost operation. The 2021 study's IRR of 18.9% and payback of 3.2 years were based on a smaller, underground-focused project. The new plan, which aims to drill out the K1 resource and evaluate a larger, combined bulk-tonnage scenario, starts from a weaker baseline. It has to not only improve on those old numbers but also surpass the much stronger Opemiska economics. The pressure is on.

The project's value is also directly tied to commodity prices, and right now, the market is favorable. Copper and platinum group element (PGE) prices are in a sweet spot that improves the potential economics for exploration and development. This isn't a hidden advantage; it's a fundamental input that can make or break a PEA. The company's optimism is partly grounded in this macro backdrop, which provides a tailwind for any new resource definition and economic study.

The bottom line is that Thierry's future hinges on two things: first, the drill program must confirm the new IP targets and successfully define the K1 open-pit resource. Second, the resulting economic model must deliver returns that are not just better than the old 2021 study, but compellingly close to the 27% IRR benchmark set by Opemiska. Until those two boxes are checked, the project remains a promising but unproven concept.

The Stock: A Tiny Market Cap for a Big Bet

The market's verdict on Thierry is clear and skeptical. With a market cap of just $38 million, the stock prices in a tiny fraction of the capital needed to actually develop a project like Opemiska. This isn't a valuation of a proven mine; it's a bet on a concept. The company's strategy is to use its validated data and infrastructure to attract partners or raise capital for 2026 exploration, but the market is holding its breath, waiting for the drill bit to speak.

That wait has made the stock volatile. On January 15th, the shares dropped 7.41% in a single day, a sharp reaction that reflects the high uncertainty of early-stage exploration. When a company's entire story hinges on a few new geophysical anomalies and a planned drill program, every piece of news-or lack thereof-can swing sentiment. The stock's recent history shows this pattern: a 45% surge in December was followed by a 43% plunge the year before, a rollercoaster ride that underscores the speculative nature of the investment.

For all that, the setup has a certain logic. A $38 million market cap means the risk of a total loss is contained. If the 2026 drill program fails, the downside is limited. But the potential reward is enormous if it succeeds. The company has already done the hard work of cleaning up 210,000 metres of historical data and found new IP targets that could connect known deposits. The next step is to drill those targets and see if the signal translates to ore. The stock's tiny size means it can't afford to fail, but it also means it has nowhere to go but up if the data confirms the promise.

Catalysts and What to Watch

The bullish thesis for Thierry now rests entirely on the drill bit. The company has laid out a compelling story with its data cleanup and IP survey, but the next step is pure execution. The primary catalyst is the company's planned active 2026 exploration season. This is where the real work begins. The goal is to test the new IP anomalies-specifically the strong anomalies between the K1 and K2 zones and the broad conductive corridors that could signal a district-scale trend. Success here would confirm the geological model and potentially connect the known deposits, which is the core of the value upgrade story.

To watch for progress, look for updates on two fronts. First, the company is nearing completion of a full database validation and reinterpretation of the K2 deposit. Any sign that this work is wrapping up and being integrated with the new IP data into a concrete drilling plan would be a positive signal. Second, the market will be watching for the first results from the 2026 program itself. The initial drill holes will target the most promising anomalies identified by the survey. Early hits on high-grade, mineable sulphide mineralization would validate the IP signal and move the project from concept to a tangible resource.

The key risk is that the anomalies don't translate. The IP survey is a powerful tool, but it only shows a signal. If the drill holes come back with low-grade or non-economic intercepts, the project could be left with a costly data set and no clear path forward. This would be a major disappointment for a stock priced on potential. The company has already done the hard work of cleaning up 210,000 metres of historical data. The next phase is about proving that this data, combined with new geophysics, leads to ore. Until the 2026 drill program delivers, the story remains just that-a story.