XRP News Today: XRP Faces 79.5% Drop Risk as Moving Averages Signal Bearish Trend

XRP, the cryptocurrency associated with Ripple, has garnered significant attention from analysts who are debating whether it is poised for a substantial breakout or a steep correction. The discussions are fueled by various factors, including historical price movements, technical analysis, and regulatory developments.

Analyst EGRAG Crypto has highlighted a key trading strategy based on the relationship between the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 33-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the weekly chart. According to EGRAG, these moving averages are crucial for identifying major trend shifts in the market. If the 21 EMA crosses below the 33 SMA, it signals a bearish trend, which historically has led to significant price drops. For instance, in May 2018, XRP fell by 87%, and in November 2021, it dropped by 72%. The next major drop could be around 79.5% from the bearish cross point, suggesting a steep correction.

Conversely, a 21 EMA crossing above the 33 SMA is seen as a strong bullish signal, often preceding major price rallies. Past bullish crosses have triggered massive pumps, indicating that the market could be entering a long-term uptrend. This could lead to much higher price levels, with targets mentioned at $5.7, $9.5, $27, and $37.

Historically, XRP has shown remarkable volatility and potential for growth. In 2018, XRP controlled over 31% of the entire crypto market and hit $3.84. Now, in 2025, it’s trading around $3.34 but holds just 5% market share. If XRP reclaims even half of its old market dominance, it could see massive gains. This is especially possible if Bitcoin cools off and altcoins rally later.

The ongoing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is another critical factor influencing XRP's price. The outcome of this lawsuit could have a significant impact on the price of XRP. Judge Analisa Torres recently denied Ripple-SEC’s motion to modify their settlement, citing procedural flaws under Rule 60. This denial leaves Ripple’s $125 million penalty and the ban on institutional XRP sales in place, raising serious questions about the future of their settlement. Legal expert Bill Morgan has highlighted six unresolved questions that could influence the trajectory of XRP’s price.

The launch of XRP futures ETFs by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) on May 19, 2025, is expected to have a significant impact on the market. Long-time trader and prominent XRP community member Aj Allen discussed how this futures launch could influence XRP’s price in the short term. His analysis relies on historical patterns and institutional trading dynamics, suggesting that the launch could create a powerful setup that could transform XRP’s market trajectory.

Additionally, the growing institutional demand for XRP is another factor contributing to the bullish sentiment. Crypto founder Edoardo Farina believes that a portfolio of 1,000 XRP will remain out of reach for many investors, suggesting that the current price of XRP is still relatively low compared to its potential. This view is supported by other analysts who predict that XRP could surge 100-fold from its current level, citing historical data and current market trends.

Despite the bullish outlook, some analysts remain skeptical about the predictions of XRP reaching $5, $9, and $27. They argue that these predictions are overly optimistic and that the price of XRP could face significant challenges in the coming years. However, the combination of historical performance, legal developments, and institutional demand has created a bullish outlook for XRP, with many investors and analysts predicting significant price increases in the near future.