Willdan Group Skyrockets 22.24%—What’s Fueling This Record Surge?

Summary
• Willdan Group (WLDN) surges 22.24% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $111.11
• Q2 EPS jumps 172.7% to $1.50, surpassing estimates by $0.80
• Management raises FY2025 guidance for revenue, EBITDA, and EPS

Willdan Group’s stock has erupted to a record intraday high, driven by a blockbuster Q2 earnings report and aggressive guidance upgrades. The engineering and energy services firm’s shares traded at $108.93 as of 2:46 PM EDT, up from a $100 open and a $99.05 low. With a 52-week range of $30.43–$111.11, the stock’s explosive move has outpaced a mixed engineering & construction sector, sparking urgent questions about sustainability and next steps for traders.

Q2 Earnings and Guidance Hike Drive Record Surge
Willdan’s 22.24% intraday rally stems from a Q2 earnings report that far exceeded expectations. Adjusted EPS surged 172.7% to $1.50, beating non-GAAP estimates by $0.80, while contract revenue rose 23% to $173.5 million. Management raised FY2025 guidance to $340–$350 million in net revenue and $3.50–$3.65 in adjusted EPS, citing strong demand for grid modernization and data center energy solutions. New contracts, including a $30 million award from the City of Fairfield and a $20 million deal with National Grid, underscored the firm’s momentum. The stock’s breakout above its 52-week high of $111.11 reflects optimism about recurring revenue from utility and government contracts.

Engineering & Construction Sector Mixed as Willdan Outpaces Peers
The engineering & construction sector (S&P 500: 0.57% gain) showed mixed performance, with Willdan’s 22.24% surge dwarfing peers like EMCOR Group (EME), which fell 0.0275%. The sector’s broader gains were driven by infrastructure spending and AI-driven energy demand, but Willdan’s outperformance highlights its unique positioning in grid modernization and public-sector contracts. While EME and others face margin pressures from subcontractor costs, Willdan’s 44.7% subcontractor cost ratio (vs. 46.3% in Q2 2024) and 70.7% adjusted EBITDA growth signal superior operating leverage.

Options and ETFs for Capitalizing on Willdan’s Breakout
• MACD: 5.768 (above signal line 5.735), RSI: 72.06 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $72.94–$91.45 (price at $108.93 above upper band)
• 200-day MA: $47.49 (far below current price), 30-day MA: $77.59 (bullish divergence)

Willdan’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish momentum, with key resistance at $111.11 (52-week high) and support at $91.45 (Bollinger upper band). The stock’s 22.24% intraday gain and 72.06 RSI indicate overbought conditions, but strong fundamentals and raised guidance justify holding long positions. For leveraged exposure, consider SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), which tracks infrastructure and energy services firms. However, options offer higher leverage and defined risk.

Top Option 1: WLDN20250815C105
• Code: WLDN20250815C105
• Type: Call
• Strike: $105
• Expiry: 2025-08-15
• IV: 65.72% (moderate)
• Leverage: 16.53% (high)
• Delta: 0.675 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.593 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0339 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 23,641 (liquid)
• Price change: +473.91% (volatility)
• Why: High leverage and moderate delta make this call ideal for a 5% upside scenario (targeting $114.38). With a 16.53% leverage ratio and 65.72% IV, it balances risk and reward.

Top Option 2: WLDN20250815C110
• Code: WLDN20250815C110
• Type: Call
• Strike: $110
• Expiry: 2025-08-15
• IV: 50.60% (moderate)
• Leverage: 37.63% (very high)
• Delta: 0.477 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.463 (high time decay)
• Gamma: 0.0487 (strong price sensitivity)
• Turnover: 5,020 (liquid)
• Price change: +447.17% (volatility)
• Why: This call offers 37.63% leverage with a 50.60% IV, ideal for aggressive bulls. A 5% upside (targeting $114.38) would yield a 4.08% gain on the $110 strike, amplified by high gamma and leverage.

Payoff Estimation:
• WLDN20250815C105: At $114.38 (5% upside), payoff = $114.38 - $105 = $9.38 per share. With 16.53% leverage, this translates to a 56.7% return on the option’s premium.
• WLDN20250815C110: At $114.38, payoff = $114.38 - $110 = $4.38 per share. With 37.63% leverage, this yields a 97.9% return on the option’s premium.

Hook: Aggressive bulls may consider WLDN20250815C105 into a bounce above $111.11.

Backtest Willdan Group Stock Performance
The backtest of WLDN's performance after a 22% intraday surge shows favorable results, with win rates and returns indicating positive short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 49.74%, the 10-Day win rate is 56.94%, and the 30-Day win rate is 58.17%, suggesting that WLDN tends to perform well in the immediate aftermath of such a significant increase. The maximum return observed was 8.19% over 30 days, which implies that while there may be some volatility, WLDN has the potential to capitalize on favorable movements in the market.

Willdan’s Breakout: A High-Volatility Trade with Clear Catalysts
Willdan’s 22.24% surge is underpinned by robust Q2 results, raised guidance, and a favorable sector backdrop. While the stock’s 72.06 RSI suggests overbought conditions, its fundamentals—driven by grid modernization and data center demand—justify the rally. Traders should monitor the $111.11 52-week high and $91.45 Bollinger upper band for directional clues. The sector leader, EMCOR Group (EME), fell 0.0275%, highlighting Willdan’s outperformance. For those seeking leverage, the WLDN20250815C105 and WLDN20250815C110 options offer high-reward setups. Watch for a breakout above $111.11 to confirm the next leg higher.