Trump’s 100 Days: A Mixed Start, But Risks Loom

The first 100 days of President Donald Trump’s second term have set the stage for a high-stakes economic and political experiment. While his administration touts job growth, inflation declines, and a $5 trillion investment pledge, the path ahead is fraught with legal, political, and market risks. The data reveals a story of promise and peril—a balancing act that will test the resilience of both his agenda and the U.S. economy.

Economic Achievements: A Fragile Foundation

Trump’s team has highlighted several positives:
- Jobs: 345,000 new jobs created since January 2025, with 54% in non-government sectors. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs, reversing a downward trend, while construction grew by 27,000 roles.
- Inflation: Prescription drug prices fell over 2%, gasoline prices dropped 7%, and wholesale egg prices plummeted 50%. March’s CPI decline marked the second monthly drop in 30 months.
- Investment: Over $5 trillion in new U.S. investments pledged by foreign and private firms, signaling confidence in reshoring efforts.

Yet beneath the surface, cracks are visible. GDP growth slowed to 0.8% in Q1 2025, down from 2.4% in late 2024. Critics argue that aggressive tariff policies—such as blanket duties on Chinese imports—are inflating input costs and disrupting supply chains. Walmart and Target executives have privately warned of potential stock shortages, while economists predict a rebound in inflation to 6.5% by year-end.

Policy Challenges: Legal Battles and Public Skepticism

The administration’s aggressive regulatory overhaul has triggered a wave of legal challenges. Over 123 lawsuits have been filed, with nine executive orders—including bans on gender-affirming care for minors and restrictions on Temporary Protected Status—temporarily blocked by courts. The Department of Education’s dismantling, a key Project 2025 goal, remains stalled pending congressional action.

Public sentiment is equally divided. A Marist poll found 45% of Americans gave Trump an “F” for his performance, while only 39% approved of his economic policies. Even as mortgage rates fell 0.4 percentage points, 64% of consumers expect grocery prices to rise in the next six months—a sign of lingering inflation anxiety.

Investment Implications: Sectors to Watch—and Avoid

• Winners: Fossil fuel companies and manufacturers stand to benefit from deregulation and infrastructure spending. The withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord has boosted coal and oil stocks, while the $935 billion in projected regulatory savings (via the “10-to-1” rule) could free up capital for industries like healthcare and tech.
• Losers: Public broadcasting entities (PBS, NPR) face existential threats as FCC investigations into their funding intensify. Renewable energy stocks have stagnated amid the administration’s climate skepticism.
• Wildcards: The auto sector saw a record March sales surge, but tariffs on imported parts could undermine gains. Industrial production hit a seven-year high in March, but manufacturing employment remains below pre-pandemic levels.

The Next Phase: Risks Ahead

The coming months will test whether Trump’s “America First” policies can deliver sustained growth. Key hurdles include:
1. Congressional Pushback: Abolishing the Department of Education and repealing Temporary Protected Status require legislative action, which faces Democratic opposition.
2. Tariff Fallout: The stock market’s sensitivity to trade tensions—exemplified by a 57% public belief that tariffs harm the economy—is a red flag.
3. Recession Risks: With consumer expectations of inflation rising and GDP growth stagnant, the Federal Reserve’s next move could either stabilize markets or deepen uncertainty.

Conclusion: A High-Wire Act

Trump’s first 100 days reveal a paradox: robust job growth and select inflation declines coexist with slowing GDP, legal gridlock, and public skepticism. While the $5 trillion investment pledge and manufacturing gains offer hope, the path to sustained growth hinges on navigating tariff-driven inflation, resolving legal challenges, and winning over a wary electorate.

The data is clear: the economy is walking a tightrope. Investors should favor sectors insulated from trade wars—such as domestic infrastructure and healthcare—but remain cautious on cyclicals tied to global supply chains. As the old adage goes, “Hope is not a strategy”—and neither is a 0.8% GDP growth rate. The next 100 days will determine whether this administration’s gamble pays off or becomes a cautionary tale.