The Truckload Market's Structural Shift: Short-Haul Resilience and Long-Haul Vulnerability in 2025

The U.S. freight market in 2025 is undergoing a profound structural transformation. While short-haul truckload services exhibit surprising resilience, long-haul operations face mounting vulnerabilities driven by capacity constraints and modal substitution trends. This divergence reflects a broader reallocation of freight demand, shaped by regulatory pressures, technological advancements, and shifting economic priorities. For investors, understanding these dynamics is critical to navigating a market where winners and losers are being redefined.

Short-Haul Resilience: A Fragile Equilibrium

Short-haul truckload (under 400 miles) remains a cornerstone of the freight network, driven by its role in perishable goods, e-commerce fulfillment, and last-mile delivery. Despite tightening capacity, the segment has shown remarkable stability. Route Guide Depth (RGD), a key metric measuring the depth of a shipper's backup transportation options, stood at 1.14 in April 2025, slightly higher than March 2025 (1.13) but still within a historically narrow range. This suggests a market operating with minimal surplus capacity, where carriers are increasingly selective in accepting loads.

The resilience of short-haul freight is partly attributable to its inelastic demand. Produce seasons, holiday-driven retail surges, and urban logistics requirements create recurring demand that is difficult to offset. However, this stability is fragile. Carriers are tightening their operations, enforcing stricter dwell fees and rejecting lower-margin loads. For example, tender rejection rates for short-haul freight have risen to 6.48% in 2025, up from 5.21% in 2024, signaling a shift toward financial discipline.

Investors should also note the impact of regulatory and seasonal factors. Events like International Roadcheck Week temporarily tighten capacity, while intermodal competition—a growing force in long-haul—has yet to significantly erode short-haul demand. This creates an opportunity for carriers specializing in regional routes, particularly those with robust cold storage or flatbed fleets.

Long-Haul Vulnerability: The Rise of Intermodal

The long-haul truckload market, in contrast, is under siege. Intermodal freight—combining rail, truck, and maritime transport—is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 15.2%, reaching $103.78 billion by 2028. This shift is driven by three key factors:

1. Cost Efficiency: Intermodal is 20–30% cheaper per ton-mile than long-haul trucking, a critical advantage as fuel and labor costs remain elevated.
2. Regulatory Pressure: Emissions regulations, such as the EU's 15% CO₂ reduction target for heavy-duty vehicles by 2025, are pushing shippers toward rail-centric solutions.
3. Technological Integration: Real-time tracking and AI-driven logistics platforms have reduced the complexity of managing multimodal operations, making intermodal more accessible to mid-sized shippers.

The economic implications are stark. Long-haul truckload volumes (LOTVI) have declined by 25% year-over-year in 2025, as shippers reallocate freight to intermodal. This trend is accelerating in regions with strong port activity, such as the Southwest U.S., where import volumes from Mexico and West Coast ports have surged. For instance, the Intermodal Association of North America reported a 13.9% increase in international container movements via rail in 2024.

Long-haul truckers are also grappling with labor shortages. Over 50% of trucking companies struggled to fill driver positions in 2023, a problem that persists in 2025. This has forced carriers to offload non-core freight to intermodal providers, further eroding their revenue base.

Strategic Investment Implications

For investors, the structural shift in the truckload market demands a nuanced approach:

1. Short-Haul Opportunities:
2. Regional Carriers: Firms with strong short-haul networks, particularly those serving perishable goods or e-commerce, are well-positioned to capitalize on inelastic demand.
3. Equipment Leasing: Demand for temperature-controlled and flatbed trailers is rising, creating upside for manufacturers and lessors.

4. Technology Providers: Startups offering route optimization, real-time tracking, and AI-driven load matching are likely to see increased adoption in this segment.

5. Long-Haul Caution:

6. Hedging Exposure: Long-haul trucking stocks remain vulnerable to further market share losses. Investors should consider hedging with intermodal operators or rail-focused ETFs.

7. Focus on Efficiency: Carriers that pivot to hybrid models—using trucking for short-haul legs while leveraging intermodal for long-distance—may retain relevance.

8. Intermodal Growth:

9. Rail Infrastructure: Companies involved in intermodal terminal expansions, double-stacking, and port connectivity are set to benefit from sustained growth.
10. Sustainability Playbooks: With ESG investing on the rise, intermodal operators aligning with carbon reduction targets will attract capital.

Conclusion: Navigating a Fragmented Market

The truckload market in 2025 is a study in contrasts. Short-haul freight clings to resilience amid tightening capacity, while long-haul operations face existential challenges from intermodal encroachment. For investors, the key lies in discerning which segments are adapting to the new normal and which are being left behind. The winners will be those who embrace flexibility—whether through regional specialization, technological innovation, or sustainable logistics—while the losers will be those clinging to outdated models in a rapidly evolving landscape.

As the year unfolds, watch for catalysts such as Federal Reserve rate cuts, new trade policies, or breakthroughs in intermodal automation. These could accelerate the reallocation of freight and redefine the market's equilibrium. For now, the message is clear: the future of freight is multimodal, and the truckload market is splitting at the seams.