Tritax Big Box H1 2026: 7% EPS Growth Looks Solid-Until You Look at NAV

Tritax H1 2026: rising income is clear, but NAV still drags the story down

Tritax Big Box delivered another stretch of stronger rental earnings, but the portfolio value and NAV both slipped. For investors, that means the income case is holding up better than the capital-value case.

Recurring income is still doing the heavy lifting

Start with the operating numbers. Tritax posted 7.0% adjusted EPS growth ex-DMA and 16.2% net rental income growth. That suggests the rent stream is still working well enough to offset softer property valuations for now.

Why the split matters

The other half of the story is on the balance sheet. EPRA NAV per share fell 1.0%, while portfolio value dropped 2.7%, so the asset book is still searching for a floor.

• Bulls can focus on the recurring cash stream: rental income and earnings are both moving the right way.
• Bears can focus on property values and ask how long a rising dividend can compensate for a softer NAV.

This half-year sits in that gap. Trust the income engine and the dividend case looks credible. Wait for clearer property prices and the capital-gains picture may become neater, but later.

The income engine still looks credible

Like-for-like rental growth is the clearest positive signal

Tritax delivered 5.1% EPRA like-for-like rental growth. That is the cleanest sign that the portfolio itself is still contributing, rather than relying only on adjusted accounting measures.

The half-year headline pack also shows 16.2% net rental income growth, reinforcing the idea that recurring income is still improving. For a REIT, that matters first.

Dividend growth is real, but the margin of safety is modest

Tritax increased the dividend to 4.00p from 3.83p, while the payout ratio ex-DMA eased to 90.7%. That supports the income case, but it is not a particularly wide cushion. If earnings stay firm, the dividend looks well covered. If the portfolio weakens further, there is less room for error.

Datacentres remain optionality, not the core thesis

The datacentre angle is interesting, but it should stay in proportion. Tritax now has 507MW of secured power, which gives the business a credible route into a market short on supply. If that pipeline starts to produce actual lettable capacity and visible rents, it could add value later. For now, though, the main thesis is still leases, rental growth, and portfolio quality.

NAV is the reason cautious investors still hesitate

The portfolio is still softening

EPRA NAV per share is now 185.9p, down from 187.8p at the end of last year, and portfolio value has slipped to £7.68bn. The contracted annual rent roll stands at £355.7m, slightly lower than before.

That combination does not weaken the income case on its own, but it does mean asset values are still part of the story. A rising dividend can matter more than a temporary valuation dip, not less.

Financing remains manageable

Tritax reported 32.9% LTV, which is not a strained position. The NAV issue here is not balance-sheet stress. It is whether falling property values keep weighing on the stock until rental growth convinces the market that the portfolio is stabilising.

My view remains split by objective: as an income vehicle, the case still holds. For investors who are sensitive to asset revaluation, this still looks more like a wait-and-see situation than a clean momentum story.

What would improve the case from here

With earnings holding and NAV only gently softer, Tritax looks more like a hold-and-monitor situation than a clear buy-or-sell call. The key question is whether rental growth can keep supporting the dividend while the property book stabilises.

Signals to watch

• Another quarter of solid 5.1% EPRA like-for-like rental growth would reinforce the idea that demand is still healthy.
• The £355.7m contracted annual rent roll does not need to surge, but another step down would be harder to ignore.
• The dividend base at 4.00p needs to remain firm if the income case is to stay intact.
• On datacentres, the market will want more than planning progress: actual lettable space, signed rents, and visible yields would matter more.

What would change the view

A softer rent roll, a fade in like-for-like rental growth, or a tighter dividend cover profile would all make the wait-and-see stance more cautious. If the income engine keeps working, though, the core thesis remains credible.