Is Target (TGT) a Buy, Hold, or Sell in 2026? A Cautious Assessment of Analyst Price Targets and Earnings Forecasts

The question of whether Target Corporation (TGT) warrants a "buy," "hold," or "sell" recommendation in 2026 hinges on a delicate balance between its strategic resilience and the headwinds facing the retail sector. Analysts' price targets and earnings forecasts, while varied, collectively point to a "hold" rating, reflecting optimism about the company's cost-cutting measures and pricing strategies tempered by concerns over macroeconomic pressures and competitive dynamics.

Analyst Price Targets: A Range of Optimism and Caution

As of late 2025, the consensus among analysts for TGT stock leans toward a "Hold" rating, with an average price target of $101.04. This figure implies a potential 7.48% upside from the stock's current price of approximately $94.97. The disparity in individual forecasts-ranging from a high of $150.00 to a low of $80.00-underscores the uncertainty surrounding the stock. For instance, UBS's Michael Lasser has expressed confidence in Target's ability to navigate the retail downturn, setting a bullish target of $108.00. Conversely, BMO Capital has trimmed its target to $90.00, reflecting skepticism about the company's capacity to sustain profitability amid a weak holiday season and affordability crisis.

These divergent views highlight a critical tension: while Target's recent price cuts on 3,000 essential items and its 25% increase in capital expenditures for store upgrades aim to attract value-conscious shoppers, analysts remain divided on whether these measures will offset broader structural challenges such as margin compression and digital fulfillment costs.

Earnings Forecasts: Mixed Signals in a Challenging Environment

Target's Q3 2025 earnings report, which exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.76 per share with actual results of $1.78, initially suggested operational resilience. However, the company's revenue of $25.27 billion fell short of expectations by 0.36%, signaling fragility in consumer demand. This duality-strong earnings per share but weak revenue growth-has led analysts to adopt a cautious stance.

For 2026, the Zacks Consensus projects earnings per share of $7.42 and revenue of $105.11 billion. These forecasts, however, rest on the assumption that Target can mitigate risks such as slowing digital sales growth, elevated tariffs, and intensified competition from Walmart and Amazon. The company's decision to cut full-year 2025 profit guidance, citing a "tepid holiday season" driven by affordability crises in food, healthcare, and housing, further clouds the outlook. While Target's focus on enhancing store appearances and reducing prices on essentials may stabilize its customer base, the broader retail environment remains fraught with volatility.

Strategic Risks and Opportunities

The key to Target's 2026 prospects lies in its ability to balance cost discipline with innovation. On one hand, the company's capital expenditure plans and pricing strategies demonstrate a commitment to regaining market share in a price-sensitive climate. On the other, structural challenges-such as declining transaction volumes and margin pressures from promotional activity-pose significant risks. Analysts' concerns about long-term sales and margin sustainability suggest that even modest missteps in execution could amplify these vulnerabilities.

Moreover, the retail sector's dependence on macroeconomic conditions cannot be overstated. A prolonged affordability crisis or a sharper-than-expected rise in interest rates could further erode consumer spending, disproportionately affecting discretionary retailers like Target. Conversely, a stabilization in inflation and a rebound in consumer confidence could unlock upside potential, particularly if the company's store upgrades and pricing strategies resonate with shoppers.

Conclusion: A Prudent "Hold" Recommendation

Given the current landscape, a "hold" rating for TGT in 2026 appears most prudent. The average analyst price target of $101.04 and Zacks' earnings forecast suggest limited but positive upside, yet the risks of margin compression, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic volatility outweigh the potential for outsized gains. Investors seeking defensive plays may find solace in Target's strategic adjustments, but those pursuing aggressive growth should temper expectations.

In the end, Target's 2026 trajectory will depend on its ability to execute its cost-cutting and customer-retention initiatives while navigating a fragile retail environment. Until clearer signals emerge-whether from a rebound in consumer demand or a deterioration in the company's financial health-the "hold" recommendation remains the most balanced approach.