Target's New CEO: Kick the Tires on Sales and the Minneapolis Situation

The new CEO walks into a store with the lights on, but the sales floor is empty. Michael Fiddelke officially took over as Target's chief executive on February 1, stepping into a business that is clearly struggling. The numbers from the third quarter tell the story: net sales came in at $25.3 billion, a 1.5% drop from the same period last year. That's the headline number. The more telling figure is the comparable sales decline of 2.7%. That means stores that were open both years are seeing fewer customers or smaller baskets, a classic sign of weakening demand.

The stock has been kicking the tires on this problem for a long time. Over the past year, shares have fallen 22.8%, trading near a 52-week low of $83.44. Even after a recent bounce, the stock is still down sharply from its highs, reflecting deep investor skepticism about the company's path. This isn't just a blip; it's a sustained slump that has dragged the entire share price down by about 22% over the last year.

Fiddelke's challenge is immediate and clear. He inherits a company where the core business is contracting, and the market has already priced in a long period of disappointment. The new CEO's first test will be to look past the quarterly reports and see what's really happening on the ground. Is the parking lot full? If not, the pressure to fix it will be intense from day one.

The Twin Crises: A City in Turmoil and a Brand Under Siege

The new CEO didn't just inherit a sales slump; he walked into a city on fire and a brand under siege. Target's hometown of Minneapolis is in the middle of a massive federal immigration crackdown that has turned violent and sparked nationwide protests. The situation is not a distant political headline-it's happening on the streets outside Target's own stores, creating a volatile environment that directly threatens the company's most basic need: customers walking through the door.

The crisis erupted in January with the fatal shooting of two protesters by federal agents. In the days that followed, the violence escalated. On January 8, two Target employees were detained at a store in Richfield, a suburb of Minneapolis. According to witnesses and a Minnesota state representative, agents forced the two U.S. citizens to the ground, bundled them into an SUV, and dumped one in a different parking lot. The incident, captured on video, is one of many violent encounters that have fueled outrage. The company's silence after this event, and the subsequent killing of a second Minneapolis resident, Alex Pretti, has left its workforce furious.

That anger has spilled directly into the company's leadership. In a powerful show of internal dissent, 284 Target employees signed a letter urging the company to bar ICE from its stores. The letter, sent just before Fiddelke took over, accused Target of moral failure and put all employees at risk. It's a stark reminder that the problem isn't just external-it's also tearing at the company's own ranks.

The national backlash has been swift and targeted. Protesters have turned their attention to Target stores across the country, organizing demonstrations at about two dozen locations in Minnesota and others in cities like Chicago and New York. Protesters have picketed stores, sat in them, and chanted for the company to "come home to its values". This isn't a minor inconvenience; it's a coordinated boycott campaign that directly challenges the retailer's core business model. When a store becomes a flashpoint for protest, it creates a hostile environment that scares away shoppers and damages brand perception.

For Fiddelke, this is a double whammy. He must fix a business that is already struggling with weak sales, while also navigating a crisis that is happening on the very streets where his stores operate. The parking lot fullness he needs to see is being blocked by protests and the fear of violence. The brand loyalty he needs to rebuild is being tested by employee outrage and national boycotts. This isn't a simple turnaround. It's a fight for the company's physical and reputational safety, all while the stock continues to slump.

The CEO's Roadmap vs. The Real-World Test

Michael Fiddelke's first memo laid out a clear, four-point plan for the company. He wants to lead with merchandising authority, elevate the guest experience, accelerate technology, and strengthen the team and communities. It's a sensible checklist for a retailer. But the real test isn't whether the plan sounds good on paper; it's whether it can work on the ground, where the parking lot is empty and the streets outside stores are tense.

There is a bright spot in the data that gives the plan some fuel. Digital sales are holding up, with same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360 growing more than 35%. That's a tangible win for the technology and convenience pillar of his strategy. It shows the company's digital engine can still fire on all cylinders, even as the physical stores struggle.

The critical gap is that his plan doesn't directly address the immediate crises. The four priorities are about building a better future, but they don't offer a playbook for the present. The CEO's roadmap focuses on merchandising and experience, but the company is facing a 2.7% comparable sales decline and a brand under siege from a city in turmoil. His plan doesn't say how to separate the Target brand from the violence in Minneapolis, nor does it outline steps to reverse the sales slide in the short term.

Fiddelke's success now hinges on two hard realities. First, he must prove that the Target brand can be kept separate from the city's crisis. The protests and employee anger are real-world pressures that can't be solved by a memo. Second, he must show that his four-point plan works on the ground. The digital growth is a start, but the core business is contracting. The new CEO's job isn't to deliver a perfect strategy; it's to kick the tires on his own plan and see if it can bring people back into the stores, one basket at a time.

Catalysts and Risks: What to Watch

The new CEO's plan is just a memo. The real test will come from the numbers and the streets. Investors and observers need to watch for three key signals in the coming weeks: a weak quarterly report, the persistence of protests, and any tangible proof that the roadmap works on the ground.

First, the upcoming Q4 earnings report is a near-term catalyst that will either confirm the slump or show a flicker of hope. Analysts expect another decline, forecasting adjusted EPS of $2.16, down from $2.41 a year ago. This isn't a surprise; it's the baseline. The real question is whether the company can meet even that low bar. A miss here would likely confirm the worst fears about the sales slide, while a beat could provide a temporary reprieve. But given the company has missed estimates on two of the last four quarters, the market will be skeptical of any good news.

Second, the situation in Minneapolis is a constant, volatile risk. The national boycott campaign is not going away. Protesters have already turned out at about two dozen Target stores in Minnesota, with demonstrations in other cities like Chicago and New York. The company's silence after the detention of two employees and the subsequent killings has fueled employee anger, with 284 workers signing a letter urging the company to bar ICE. Fiddelke needs to see if this pressure eases or intensifies. If protests grow more frequent or violent, they will directly impact store traffic and brand perception, making it harder for any sales recovery to take hold.

Finally, the most important test is execution. The new CEO's roadmap is a list of intentions. The market needs to see if he can kick the tires on his own plan and get results. Watch for concrete moves: new product launches that spark excitement, store experience changes that make shoppers linger, or digital initiatives that drive foot traffic. The growth in same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360 is a positive sign, but it's a small part of the business. The real-world utility of his four-point plan-leading with merchandising, elevating the guest experience-must be proven by a reversal in the 2.7% comparable sales decline. Until that happens, the thesis remains untested and vulnerable.