Superior Plus Q2: A 10% EBITDA Rise, but the Real Test Is Whether Certarus Is Really Gaining Traction

Q2 improvement is clear; durability is still the real question

Superior Plus is getting more attention after a third quarter dividend declaration and a May medium-term growth outlook upgrade, followed by a 21% stock bounce over the past month. That rebound suggests investors are willing to give the improvement the benefit of the doubt.

The headline is encouraging: Q2 Adjusted EBITDA rose 10%, and management attributed the progress to a record Q2 in CNG. But one solid quarter does not settle the debate. The key question is whether Certarus is building repeatable demand or whether the market is reacting to a temporary rebound.

What actually improved in Q2

Superior Plus generated $36.8 million of Q2 Adjusted EBITDA, up from the prior-year quarter, while Adjusted EBITDA per share grew by about 40%. Management said the improvement was primarily driven by CNG, which makes this look more like operating progress than financial engineering.

There are also more concrete proof points than in earlier versions of this story. Certarus launched mobile CNG fleet fueling and signed its first mobile fleet fueling contract. Its data-center business continues to grow, and six contracts signed since last September totaling more than $350 million in revenue suggest the company is converting interest into actual awards.

Where the skepticism still makes sense

The quarter was not uniformly strong. Adjusted EBITDA in North American Propane was down $2.0 million in the seasonally slower quarter, which means the improvement still rests heavily on CNG.

The bigger test is whether investment is starting to outpace visible cash-flow support. Superior Plus is raising 2026 capital spending to $230 million from $160 million to fund CNG expansion, and expects leverage to be around 4 times by year-end. That is manageable, but only if the new data-center and mobile-fueling work starts translating into steady earnings and cash flow.

What would confirm the bull case from here

After a 21.18% 30-day share price return, Superior is no longer priced like a pure speculation. Going forward, the bull case becomes more credible if:

• Reported results keep reflecting a record Q2 in CNG rather than relying on one good quarter.
• Certarus turns contract awards into visible revenue, building on six contracts signed since last September totaling more than $350 million in revenue.
• Superior can move beyond its current expected 2026 growth in Adjusted EBITDA of approximately 2% as execution improves.

If those signals show up, the recent rebound is more likely to look early than exhausted.